Member Info for Trenners

Hi
Well - I'm bullish (and long term holder) but I do agree with 2ri that this has further to fall before it heads back to the stars - although I don't predict 50p - and would suggest a fall to somewhere around 72p (for a double bottom) or around 75.96 (to fill the gap created when it gapped up to 78p on the morning of 06/04/20.

2ri is correct in that if this was going to storm forward towards £1.30 / 1.50 - you would have thought it would have done so last week in the peak of the bear market rally on 29th / 30th April - but I think we only reached about £1.06 before falling back.

I, personally, am a strong buyer at anywhere down from the mid-80s and I think this will track the FTSE back to those levels as the downleg gathers momentum and the FTSE breaks 5000.

How far below 80p that this drops is anyones guess ..... but I will be adding more all the way down.

GLA

Trenners

Hi
Anyone any thoughts why the share price fell today in a rising market? I am thinking about buying in here and was worried by the drop today

Trenners

It seems as though this share is the play thing of the money market makers?

How can it move up and down in such a volatile way every day? I've seen nothing like it.

Yes shares follow the market sentiment (up and down) but this share seems to move with huge volatile.

It's as though it is shorted to within an inch of its life .... Then everyone jumps on the long bus (for a day or two) .... Then it's back to shorting again!

Has this share always (before the CV crash) behaved in this way or is this something recent?

Absolutely astonishing to watch and frightening to participate in!

Trenners

Hi Awwaps,
I'm in the 55p to 35p stuck crowd as well (and I'm sure we are in good company). I was also going to add below 30 but I've decided to sit and wait for at least 27.99 ....

I don't think that will be the bottom and it's possible we will see 25p and possibly 22p or less ....

But I'm sure a steady add as we drop through the 20s will.pay dividends.(pardon the pun) in years to come.

GLA

Trenners

Hi JF,
Not bought into Stobbarts yet but am watching it very closely and waiting for 8p (or less) to take an entry.

It's fallen much lower than it should have done and they are reporting good business taking food to all these supermarkets!

It's a bit of a gamble, so am keeping stakes to a minimum, but I will definitely be in at 8p

GLA

I wasn't spamming .... I am a new investor and was simply asking if there are any chartists here that can advise on what the support and resistance was?

GLA

Hi Numbers,
I've been waiting for BT to hit £1 (or less) for me to gain an entry for some time ... and thought we were almost there (when we hit £1.05) last month .... was hovering on the buy button .... and then it bounced up to £1.30 or so for a few days .. but I see it's now on the way down again ..... I don't know whether £1.05 is some technical support line that caused it to bounce? Perhaps chartists on this forum could advise?

Is it a good long term hold? Yes of course it is as, you've already said, it's still going to be here after Covid-19 and it's still going to be here after we have both passed on too!! It's a bit of a plodding organisation (although a lot of established big orgainsations "plod" - take IBM for example - and that didn't stop Buffett investing in IBM and so I don't think it should put either of us investing in BT.

The pension shortfall issue (discussed on previous threads) is a little of a worry because even though they abolished their final salary scheme to new members in 2001 - it continues to be a bit of millstone around the companies neck as it locked so many "baby boomers" into the company waiting for the cast iron pension to arrive!

The dividend cut is less of a worry now (than it was last month) as it seems quite fashionable to cut (or totally scrap) the 2020 dividend and I am sure BT will make some adjustment to their dividend policy too but I also think it will return to a fair yield once all the CV is behind us.

Some people have suggested (on this board) that this will hit 68p - which I don't believe - and I think £1 or even £1.01 or £1.02 (sorry if I am rampling the share ) - would be a good place to start with "top ups" on the way down to 68p (surely not) and perhaps "top ups " on the way (that would be a novelty) to £1.50 once we get rid of the virus!

Anyhow good luck .... and see you in the buying booth at £1.02 .... unless their is a good technical reason to buy at £1.05 (in which case I won't wait for the last few p drop this time) .... I will post to this forum once "I'm IN".

Trenners

Hi all,
I bought in at 76p on Friday (£15,000) - having to wait to make my purchase as the share price was firstly pumped up to 81p over lunch time - and then dumped back to 75p towards the close of play.

Any idea why this was pumped and dumped? Was it day traders playing a trading channel? What is next support and resistance from here?

GLA

And it's looking pretty dark at the moment.....

It's probably time to add more shares but, at this rate, I'm going to hold more stock than Antonio!

I fear many more grim days ahead but I do remain convinced that this will come good in the end.

And if Lloyds goes bust ..... God help us all!

GLA

Thing is Toff - there is a huge amount of dead wood sitting inside BT waiting for their final salary pensions to mature. And of course those final salary pensions have caused a huge pension deficit that diverts shareholder money.

I worked there (as a consultant) for 4 years and those BT employees who were bright and forward thinking - who didn't stay very long and were therefore not trapped by the pension fund - went off to get great jobs elsewhere and the rest of the lifers just plodded on.

BT (we joked) stood for Bring Twenty or Bus Trip because that's the number of often unnecessary employees who would attend customer meetings!

In principle - this company should.be flying ..... In practice - it's.plodding (like the vast majority of the people within it)

Trenners

.... As the probability of the dividend being scrapped / suspended increases .....

It wouldn't surprise me to see this in the 20s now .... And I didn't think we would see the 40s again (a few weeks ago) let alone the 30s or the 20s.

Depressing ..... Probably need to add some more!

GLA

Trenners

Hi,
Faulkes was right (and therefore I was wrong) that the majority of the shares taken by directors in the last week or so were part of the 2020s Group Share award and the only "real purchaser" was Lord Upton! I'll take more notice of RNS's in future!

GLA
Trenners

2RI,
Well the directors (who I would suggest are in a better position to judge the value of Lloyds than both of us) used their own cash to buy a substantial number of shares at 33.5p and 32.49p last week ..... and also, at the same time(ish), the share seemed to flatten out (the drop) at around 32p and also didn't breach 30p for more than a few seconds (on a bad down day).

So, for me, the directors suggest 32.49p (or less) is good value for this share and the graph seems to support that view.

I will be following the directors (possibly as soon as tomorrow) and adding more shares around 30p - 32p.

Will it drop to 28p? A few people on this board say there is a gap to close at that level so:- Maybe ..... but if it does drop that low I would suspect it would be a very quick bounce (down and then back up) .....

I also think the final dividend (worth 2.25p per share) will be paid ..... but I suspect future dividends (Q1, Q2, Q3?) will be cancelled as CV continues.

GLA

T,
Of course the dividend shouldn't be cancelled. The investors "earned" that dividend by investing in a bank that was profitable through 2019 (despite PPI) and the dividend is a reward for their investment. The bank is well capitalised and isn't at risk of going under.

If dividends are to be cut / frozen then that should commence from Q1 2020 onwards when the bank is likely to be less profitable because of the CV crisis.

Hi LTI,
I've just joined you at 31.22p ...... like you I'm continuing to add as we drop ..... on the belief we will be alright in the end (wherever that is) .....

GLA

Well ... some people over on the LGEN board are suggesting £1 (for LGEN) which is a 33% drop from current share price.

On that basis ..... we could be looking at below £2 here .... certainly the share price movement, downwards daily, suggests we have further to fall ..... I'm just sat on my hands trying to work out when next to enter here .....

Anyone got any technical suggestions of next level of support ?

GLA

Have you bought yet?

It looks like it's just me and LTI adding more here then ..... not sure how low it can go ... but at this rate ... LTI and I are going to own 50% of Lloyds each!

GLA Trenners

Hi
Anyone got technical analysis which might indicate the next support levels? Or are support levels irrelevant with all this virus panic around?

Anyone else slowly adding as this continues its downward slide .....or is it just me throwing my cash off a cliff!

Trenners

Well .... "HeresHopin" you are right and I'm wrong then ...... but at the moment the share price suggests you need to Carry on Hoping because not many of us are not Carrying on Cruising with Saga.