Member Info for Trenners

Hi Livestock,
"The initial shock of the coronavirus pandemic to Britain's financial system is over BUT the COVID crisis is very far from over. The depth and length of its economic impact remain very uncertain: it is clear that there is likely to be a great deal of pain for the financial sector. https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSS8N2DA002

..... which probably explains why this share is heading DOWN to the low 30's or even late 20's again

Trenners

Hi John46,
I agree that this is a fools rally and it's astounding how the Dow and S & P (and FTSE by implication) ignore all bad news to celebrate the easing of lockdown (with unsustainable exhuberance). Goldman Sachs has a target on Lloyds of 34p ..... so how on earth, with all the headwinds we currently face, can these be worth 33.8p at the close of today is totally beyond me.

I know you have previously suggested 28p as about fair market value, in the past, and I think that feels about right .... although the market currently disagrees with both of us!

I still can't get that chart (which shows Lloyds hitting 22p) out of my head but I am hoping it doesn't drop that far as I'm currently holding 100,000 shares with an average in the low 40's and have no intention of selling any of them (as I want the dividends .... if I live long enough for their resumption).

GLA

Trenners

I bought in with a few shares last week as I think this is undervalued and hasn't moved with the recent market rallies ....

Anyone else invested here ...... can't believe how few shares are traded on a daily basis .... also noticed the share price makes wild movements for no obvious reasons ......

Thoughts?

Trenners

I think the FTSE shuffle happens this week (with CPI being demoted) .......although the FTSE looks likely to open higher tomorrow (as weekend futures are trading higher as I write this).

Anyone have any thoughts on whether demotion will adversely affect us that much .......?

PS: I bought back in for a few shares on Friday as "old habits die hard" ....

Trenners

13.1 million were not bought (or sold) by any institution or individual ..... it was simply an "uncrossing trade (UT) .... and these happen every day.

One thing that is still true (about MRO) is that it is super sensitive to the FTSE and DOW movement ..... a couple of good days and this rockets ..... one bad day and it falls ....... What will be interesting will be to see what happens if we have 3 or 4 bad days in a row .... will it hold £1.10 .... or will it be back in the "old trading range" ......

If it holds ...... I will be back in .... as I still massively rate this company ..... although how the automotive and aerospace sectors recover from CV does worry me .... and just look how the Rolls Royce share price has been trashed over the last few weeks!

GLA (and especially Singh) ......

Trenners

Hi Seismic,
Well interest rates at, possibly sub zero, mass unemployment, the mother of all recessions, huge loan impairments ...

The list goes on ..... And how much of any of that was factored into today's rally ..... absolutely none of it ....

Things are going to get a whole lot worse in the UK before they get better (and even the chancellor agrees with that comment) and Lloyds is the bellwether share for the UK economy ...

So when the UK economy sinks .....so does the Lloyds share price .....

Is that evidence enough?

Trenners

Classic bull trap. No reason for the rise ..... Just over exuberance of getting out of lock down ...

Definitely going back to 28 and possibly lower.

Trenners

Well done to Singh and all the other LTH who kept the faith and have been rewarded by £1.20+. Onwards and upwards for a while perhaps ...... but I still think (along with others) that this rally is built on thin ice ..... so I still expect to see the 80s / 90s here again soon ...... and I haven't given hope on the 70's ..... although I do admit the 50's look a long way away now! HaHa!

Bad luck anon3 for selling out early (like I did too) ...... but I think there will be more opportunity to buy here ...

All the best .....

Trenners

I thought you were the singer .... Singh ..... Ha ...... so 2ri and me must be the chirpers!

Hi Night_Watch,
I wasn't expecting you to do anything re: my previous post although I wanted to warn others not to get drawn into the whole 36p buy in price (expecting a bounce into the 40s) which caught me out on the last cycle. It took me a while to get out once I had bought in ..... and as my previous posts show ... I was astonished by the weird movements of this share price.

It looks like it is holding over 36p as I write this .... but as we've already seen many times before ... this share can shoot up and down in a heartbeat.

Another good post by 2reincarnated ...... I'm still not sure about the 50s .... but I'm pretty sure we will see the 70's again soon!

..... I can't see how this is going to recover any time soon.

You would have expected this to push forward towards 40p and, with a bit of luck, perhaps further ..... but it didn't do that ..... it did it's usual bounce up to 36p (or just beyond) and then fell back again ......

This is going much lower when we get a bad news / down day .......

Trenners

IMO ..... this is not going to get up to the £1.20 range until it can break through £1.06 .... which it failed to do (again) today ...... and that is the third time (from memory) that it has tried to do this.

This still looks very (85p - £1.06) range bound to me ...... if we see a concerted push through £1.06, and that then holds, then I think £1.20 is on it's way ..... but at the moment it's falling back again .... which is not good news.

Anon3: £1.01 is a good sale price based on a 93p purchase and it's never wrong to take a profit .... it would not surprise me to see this below 93p by the end of the week (once all the euphoria over loosening lock down has evaporated).

I still think this is going back to the 70's before we see the £1.20's ........ but it was a nice surprise to wake up to a leap in the share price.

Good luck to all holders

Trenners

I think Agent777 makes a fair point about the level of debt currently being carried by MRO and also the potential not to be able to make profitable disposals with the recession looming.....

Which is why the share price is still in the 80s/90s/00s rather than back up into the £1.10 to £1.50 range.

Rolls Royce share price plummeted when they announced their redundancy program (and then recovered a little) and I would expect the same to happen here.

So ..... Short term I think this will fall .....but MRO in the 80s or below is good value ..... And it would not surprise me if we saw the 70s again ..... Like we did about 10 days ago.

Trenners

Pop which way though ..... Up or Down?

I sold out of this share today as I have begun to lost faith in it, am concerned by the wild movements up and down (for no obvious reason), am concerned it might get dropped from the FTSE 250 at the next shuffle, am concerned that it is being professionally shorted at nearly 7% of total stock and I am also eyeing the June 25th update in that I can't see what positive news then can have given the lockdown.

It seems that this share is being traded for a quick shilling it two and the range looks to be around 30p - 35p right now ...... but that 35p seems to be getting harder to achieve so the range may be falling.

I like Capita but there are too many variables above to stay holding for any length of time at the moment. So I'm OUT.

I.will be back when things stabilise a bit (and the snorters move.to a different share).

Gla

Trenners

Hi Anon3,
I think your summary re: this share being manipulated by trading algorithms must be true as why else would it drop by such a lot for no reason whatsoever? I was expecting a couple of percentage point drop ..... but as you say, 7.5% down at one point is simply "having a laugh".

I agree that there is money to be made in trading this share between the marked trading channels whilst still holding onto some shares for the longer term ......

GLA

Trenners

It's been quite a day with some very steep rises (breaking 36p resistance) followed by some even more dramatic drops.

Overall I am pleased we are well up whilst most major indices are down - but this wild swinging can't be normal so there must be lots of things going on in the background.

Anyone know why this swings wilder than the wildest rollercoaster?

Trenners

....managing to rise whilst the Dow and the FTSE fall.

That seems bullish to me - what do you think 2reincarnated / Anon3 / Singh?

Maybe this share is beginning to heal as I would have expected a big pullback today based on the wider index performance - yet it continued its rise. Maybe we will break £1.10 this time?

Thoughts

Trenners

Hi Anon3,
I thought the aviation side accounted for only about 5% revenue and the automotive side (at 88%) was our biggest income stream?

This share has always been volatile and trades more like an AIM share than a FTSE 100 constituent. The rollercoaster ride is both exhilarating (when we go up) and just plain scary (when we fall).

I was a bit disappointed we didn't get back to the 90s on Friday but I'm hopeful for Monday.

Even British Bulls have got MRO as a BUY .... I'm not sure if that's a blessing or a curse ....

However this week demonstrates what most of have been saying for some time .... When the Dow sneezes then this share catches a cold .....

If we get a major Dow pullback then we are going down with it!

Have a good weekend everyone

Trenners