Member Info for Trenners

Yes - I agree with what you say (AimMaster) in that we are now looking at a recovering business and things look much better moving forward.

However - the lack of volume, this week, and the inability to punch through 50p must be a concern.

I understand the argument re: people bailing at 50p and new buyers coming on board BUT I would have expected volume to be high in those circumstances (and it's not).

Furthermore - it took me 5 individual sales transactions (in 25k tranches) for me to sell my holding - which may suggest that there are not many keen buyers at 50p right now.

I see a British Bulls have given CPI a sell rating this evening and we have closed below 50p - which doesn't bode well imo.

I will definitely be buying in again at 52p (because I believe in the company).but the price action, right now, suggests it's more likely to fall back a little (hopefully not 20% this time given we know how well things are progressing) ...

I'm honestly think if it was going to break through 50p - it would have done it by now! And if I'm wrong, I'll buy back at 52p anyway.

GLA Trenners

sitting for quite a few days around the 50p resistance .... with a reduced volume .... and little appetite to break through and continue higher ......

When this has happened (in the past) then they have slowly fallen back (by 20% or more) until the next update - which is usually at 3 month intervals as the company don't tend to make many RNS announcements (re: contract renewals or new wins) that would support the share price.

Someone else was saying they were waiting for the breakout to 52p and then they were going to buy to enjoy the momentum upto 60p+

I sold my entire 120,000 share holding today (having held for over a year) as the low volume and lack of puff concerned me .... and I plan to either buy back at 20% lower ..... or ..... if we get a convincing breakout at 52p then buy back 100,000 share at a slightly higher price.

To me - this seems like a sensible insurance policy in that I get to bank the (significant) capital gain I've achieved so far whilst protecting myself against a downward push in the share price.

I'm a big fan of Capita (otherwise I would not have held these since June 2020) - and I will be back - but only when we've got a head of steam again.

What are others thinking / doing?

GLA Trenners

These seemed to have lost their momentum ...... sitting for

I could place a limit sell order - but it wasn't executed because the limit price didn't get triggered.

I tried selling just 10,000 shares and they didn't want to immediately quote for those either .....

I'll probably try and sell a few again tomorrow ... But interesting they didn't want to quote me for even a modest sell!

Hi
So I decided to try and sell a few CPI this afternoon and I was repeatedly denied an electronic quote by my online broker (X-O) .... I was able to buy (I tried a dummy £5k buy and was quoted immediately) ....

So ... Is the price continuing to rise (on low volume) .... Because you can never leave Hotel CPI?

Anyone else had problems selling today?

Which gap has been filled?

I'm awaiting Velo's analysis (hopefully later) with bated breath ......

For what it's worth .... my analysis is that this share was struggling to get over and hold at £1.70, just before results, and the results might well have been "expected" but they weren't stunning and the market reacted accordingly.

We've had a good rise lately from about £1.25 on budget day (early March) through to £1.70 just before results. Many people were commenting that the share might be getting ahead of itself a little bit (and I remember one poster suggesting this share should be shorted from £1.65 - which proved very insightful and correct!). Even "Bullish Velo" admitted that the share was overbought and could be due a retrace.

So what now? Well there didn't seem much of an appetite to push back through the mid £1.60s after the results and it looked, at one point, as though we might be sinking back towards the £1.40s. News of a decision not to strike, news on BT Sport, news on a new broadband partner are all things that should move the share price upwards again (towards £1.70) but whether it will be enough to breach the year high (of about £1.72) is debatable.

My own view is that this will bounce around between £1.50s and £1.65s until one, or a combination, of the things above bring more clarity. As the year progresses (and we get nearer to the first dividend payment) then I can easily see this heading for £2 by end of December 2021 as incomer seekers return.

In the meanwhile, I would suggest this is a good share to hold ... and top up if we get below £1.50.

Over to you Velo ........

Trenners

.... It's a shame it's so volatile on 'down days'.

I've bought back in (having had a lot of fun with this share during lockdown 1).

I thought the recent update was good and nice to see a dividend (albeit small) restored.

Are any of the old crowd still invested here? singwhenyouarewinning? Anon3?

GLA

Trenners

Someone suggested that the share was heading back to 148.3 to fill a gap left there .... On a different chat room

Don't know if there is a gap there or not......but they made comment when the share was trading at £1.55

Trennerd

I can't see what's going to stop the slide with no more news scheduled until at least June!

I'm holding a lot of these as wasn't planning on bailing anytime soon but this downslope is unrelenting!

GLA

Trenners

Would be interested to hear Below thoughts on this week's price action and what the tea leaves suggest for next week?

To me, the fact we are holding and consolidating around £1.48 seems to bode well for a move up towards the £1.60s soon ....

What do you think?

Trenners

......or have we been spotted (with the share dropping to £1.27 before recovering) and failing to hit £1.33 today.

Everything looked pretty rosy this morning .....but felt pretty queazy by lunchtime ....only to get a little better by close.

I'm keep expecting this to step back toward £1.40 and I'm forever disappointed.

What do the tea leaves say Velo?

GLA

Trenners

Hi
I think / hope we should definitely see a 2p dividend tomorrow ..... and possibly a 3p dividend ...... why do I think this?

I've been invested in Peer to Peer lending with Assetz Captial since (before) the pandemic and they have managed to survive without any major defaults (of loans) so far. OK - they reduced some of their headline interest rates and they introduced a small lenders fee ..... but Assetz Capital have performed pretty well in difficult times. Their secondary market is selling at a ZERO discount which shows a) liquidity and b) lender confidence (as they are not prepared to discount their loans to realise their cash).

SO ... if Assetz Capital can survive with a loan book of "less robust loans" - presumably taken out by people at a higher interest rate (because they would have been refused a loan by the likes of Lloyds) .... then I am fairly confident that the impairment to the loan book is going to be less than first imagined.

ALSO ..... with Antonio on his way out and Nat West paying 3p and HSBC paying 15 cents ..... 3p - to my mind - seems more than achievable. All will be revealed tomorrow .... but if Assetz Capital can survive this turmoil ... Lloyds surely have got to be in a better position.

So ..... 3p for me please!

GLA

Trenners

I rarely post here but have been quietly adding BT to my portfolio since they last went sub £1 (back in September 2020) and I've been averaging up again this week.

I see we tried to break the £1.32 resistance on the morning of the results but then fell back and understand we have some support at £1.20 .....

What is going to propel this through £1.32 in the short term?

Any thoughts? Any comment from Velo (which is always insightful)?

Trenners

To be fair Toff ..... Wasn't it an oven ready withdrawal agreement?

If the Trade agreement had been oven ready (in December 2019) it would surely be cooked by now!

I would say 60 / 40 is probably the chance in favour of getting a deal .... And all the noise we hear from both sides .....is just theatrics to try and prove to their home audiences that they are trying to extract the best deal they can!

This will all end in a deal, I'm pretty sure, but not much before a minute to midnight on 31st December I fear!

Gla

Trenners

Interesting the first respondent isn't invested and forecasts the price will drop further so that he can take a punt!

I'm holding 100,000 of these and my friend is holding 263,000 so we are obviously hoping for a rise!

I didn't think we would end up about 15% to 20% down on the week we sold ESS for £400million. I thought it more likely to see a 20% rise on the back of that. And that's ignoring the £1billion Royal Navy contract.

The only thing that's probably going to shift this upwards now is a favourable BREXIT deal (where all stocks will rise in a relief rally) or decent year end results (which I don't think are due to February / March 2021.

One thing I've learned is that this stock certainly knows how to rise rapidly when the conditions are perceived right.

So, I'm sat on my hands and holding tight because this could well be heading back to the mid / low 30s but I'm not prepared to sell out (in case I am wrong).

I bought in with a conservative 70p target and I am going to stick with that plan and see what 2021 brings!

If we do get back to the low 30s again then I will certainly be adding more.

Gla

Trenners

Lordflash: Isn't this typical and usual European Political theatrics .... Suggest deal talks have broken down ... Then a flurry of diplomatic activity .... Then a break through ...quickly followed by the announcement of a deal ...all this taking place in mid December?

Didn't we live through all this before, back in 2018, when Mother Theresa negotiated her eleventh hour deal with the EU (for it then to fail to be agreed by our parliament).

I'm certain a BREXIT deal will be done ... It's been going on too long for a deal not to be done .... And it's just eleventh hour drama to convince all onlookers that each side managed to extract the best deal ...

So ....logic days stay fully invested .... Have no fear ... And enjoy the huge bounce!

Trenners

Although it's tempting to bag a decent profit (having bought all the way down as this knife was falling) .....

I've decided to sit on my hands because I'm convinced the market will get a huge BREXIT bounce and then the mother of all Santa relief rallies ....

On top of that, we could get the ESS news that we've all been waiting for, any day now!

It really feels like this is the time to be fully invested in equities rather than running for the hills and banking a profit.

Just my thoughts ... What do others thing?

Trenners

Well I bought back in June (on the back of Evils) advice and I paid 48p a share.

I then sat and watched Evils advice drop to 22.9p and I felt I had no option other than to average down whilst trying to catch the falling knife!

I saw this Evil article resurface again when we were trading in the late 30s after the most recent bounce. And I smiled.

I am certain CPI are a great long term prospect (which is why I continue to hold).

Can't be sure of Evils motives though - is he pumping and then selling his own shares into the strength. Maybe.

Given that Evil last recommended this when we were trading at 37p - that would seem a fair entry point ... But I am wary of him now given I sat on a massive loss for some time after his suggestion to load up on CPI

Trenners

Wil57 - I'm a big fan of velo as he gives us lots of information and technical analysis and this board would be a lot poorer without him.

His recent technical analysis (of BT being over bought at £1.30) was spot on and the share price subsequently dropped ... I wish I had taken his advice rather than continuing to hold.

Also .... Velos' analysis (however good or bad) is unlikely to have any affect on the BT share price.

Keep up the good work Velo ... I'm a fan!

Trenners