Member Info for Trenners

Well I did say, the other day, to tread with caution here as we have had so many false dawns, jumps (on rumour) followed by fallback (on reality).

Maybe something is happening this time (but I remember the many excited weekends on here after Betaville inspired rumours) that led to absolute nothing too.

I think there is every likelihood, now, we will see the £1.20s again before we see the £1.70s and, if we don't see that bid, then this could fall a little further.

I take the point that this will be more in the future (so it doesn't matter that there is a short term loss by adding now) but caution is probably a better position than greed with #THG

GLA

Yes - we need to all tread with caution here because it's not over until the fat lady sings! If we don't get any further bids - this drops back. If we get bids not acceptable to MM - this drops back.

Saying it's an easy 20% (buying at these levels) is just a little premature and the market is telling us that (by the share price hovering around £1.40 rather than £1.70).

I'm long and still underwater and I won't be selling until I'm forced to ..... But I would comment that LTHs are likely to gain more if the company isn't taken private (especially if it gets taken out for a low sum eg £2 / £2.50 / £3).

I thought long and hard about adding more today - but it's not an easy 20% (to add more) .....it's a risky 20% up or down ..... Up with a bid, down without one.

Hold, hold, hold is my suggestion but adding more isn't a one way bet!

GLA

Trenners

.... Which must bode well for when this rout ends .... If this rout ever ends! I never heeded the old adage Sell in May etc ..... But it's beginning to feel like that was a mistake!

Trenners

I don't think that move from 6th November 2020 to 20th November is very representative of movement here because .... On 9th November 2020 the discovery of a Covid vaccine was announced and EVERYTHING shot through the roof .....

However, having said that, this looks to want to settle back towards 28p and I would be happy for it to consolidate around there before heading north again!

Quite heartening that although the NASDAQ fell apart last week ... This didn't seem to want to spend very long in the 22s .....

An interesting week ahead though .....

Trenners

... can't believe we are sub 25p again ....

Ha if I buy any more of these they are going to be offering me a seat on the board!

This looks like it's heading for 30p by the time we get to the Platinum Jubilee weekend (if not sooner)

GLA

Trenners

A 25p buyback is not a bad thing and is lower than my current average in CPI even after this storming rise.

Every chance this is heading back to the 50s

Trenners

I think 50p should be relatively straightforward but, historically, this share has stumbled past that point having tried to break the 52p resistance on many occasions.

Some will say the company is in a better position this time - but the last attempt during August / September 2021 also ended in failure. I don't think things have materially changed since last autumn.

So my advice - which I also posted at the end of August 2021 - is sell out, completely at 50p, wait for a convincing break of 52p and then buy back for the rise to 70p.

GLA

Trenners

I also agree that SoftBank is critical in the buyout / sell to PE plans and I think that's why things have been so quiet.

Once we get past 10th May then SoftBank can join in / buy out at a price much below £5.96.

Given SoftBank was their chosen partner, given SoftBank have the AutoStore investment (which is pretty important for Ingenuity) - then SoftBank HAS to be involved.

Much as I would like a buyout at £5.96 - that is honestly not realistic - although I remain hopeful of seeing a buy out beginning with a £3.

Interesting few weeks ahead I feel.

Trenners

PeteRoberts: Are you stalking me?

First THG then MRO now CPI! If you want to get the full set (of my holdings) then you might want to add RR and I'm overweight in BT too!

Re: CPI - fantastic share to trade. Make sure you are out by the time it hits 50p - it hits that level at least once a year - every year - but invariably then falls back to 30p or so before beginning a new run.

The fall to 20p this time was because a large II was offloading but I think they've finally finished (after holding this share back for 8 weeks).

So - with a little patience and a little luck - we should be hitting 50p soon .... Because this share really moves (usually for consecutive days) when she gets going ....

I remember it going from 33p to 50p in about 10 days last year and that's not unusual for CPI.

Make sure you don't sell too early! And the share gets interesting again if it can solidly break 52p resistance as that would suggest a return back to a 70p trading range (but it hasn't managed to clear the 52p hurdle convincingly in 2020 or 2021

Trenners

Farrell93
The thing is ... As long as Matt Moulding holds his Golden Share .... Any PE offer is going to have to be up towards the IPO value ... Otherwise Matt isn't selling.

And that's the absolute nub of the issue - the city hate this share because they can't manipulate it so that PE can step in and get it on the cheap.

It doesn't matter how high or low this share price goes because Matt Moulding is in control and not the city boys!

Absolute genius (on Matt's part) and ensures PE will pay what the business is worth if they want to get their hands on it!

I feel like the kiss of death with this share but decided to add a few more at £1.10 ..... So tin hats at the ready ... As usually when I add ....it turns out I should have sold .... And vice versa.

Having said that - £1.10 seemed a fair price to pick up a few more based on the news we know ..... However it's probably a mugs game buying THG as it's so heavily manipulated by the market!

GLA

Trenners

I've been cautious, after trying to catch the falling knife during December, so my average is £1.67.

I remember watching THG plummet to that level during mid December and thinking 'this is a ridiculous valuation'.

So - having been trapped by the tide going out - I only averaged down a little at low tide ... I am happy to now sit and wait for the tide to come in again.

I've no doubt this will return to £2 or even £3 plus in due course (as long as PE don't take it private for a lower sum)

Gla

Trenners

We'll all be millionaires Matty!
I wouldn't hold your breath - in my experience - this share never fails to disappoint.
One day it will rise exponentially - I just hope I live long enough to see it .....RODNEY

#justsaying ..... I can't believe the amount of hot air that is spouted on this board .....

Perhaps this wasn't being shorted after all !

Hi Pete
My view on THG is 'not for widows or orphans' .... A highly played, highly touted, share and nowhere near as safe as MRO.

Having said that - I've been buying THG since £1.95 and am, obviously, in an offside position there now.

Lots of daily noise on the THG board should be taken with a pinch of salt (far too many 'investors' over there hoping to get rich quick expecting a short squeeze, corporate action or a re-rate)!

THG - assuming results are in line - should gradually recover and head back towards £2 or so over the next 12 months. There doesn't seem to be any obvious reason for it's decline from £2.30 (on Xmas Eve) to 70p in mid March.

I'm certainly planning to hold for at least £3. The return to £3 though looks to be a longer journey than the drop from £7 to 70p!

But who know! Far to many games played with THG

Trenners

I just think we are sub £1.40 range bound (probably £1.10 through £1.34ish) and I can't see much changing (in an upward direction) until the war is resolved and then ..... Woooshhh....

You can see that the only recent day this has moved strongly up is 29/03 when reports came out that a peace deal in Ukraine may be likely .... Pretty much all down hill since then.

I'm sat holding - just gone ex Divi for a tasty 1p per share tax free cash .... I fully expect this to be £2 plus this time next year and view it as a fairly safe place to park money.

Gla

Trenners

I don't think we are getting anything wrong here and I also don't think the company is doing anything wrong either ....

However, demotion from FTSE 250 was a big setback (and the Russian war) that has caused a huge share overhang for a unloved share (and recent trading volumes confirm we've had big sellers in the background).

On the plus side - big II like Schroders continue to maintain faith (and they bought most of their shares in the mid 40s).

What's going to get this moving upwards again? Well it's interesting they issued an RNS today for a relatively small contract renewal (Capita usually are very bad at self publicity) ...... So what's going to fix this is NEWS NEWS NEWS and MORE NEWS.

Perhaps we are going to float around at these levels until August results (although a Trading Update in June wouldn't go amiss).

But with Capita the key is always patience. If we believe they aren't going bust (I hope they aren't as I'm holding 237,000 shares here) - then we need to believe that once this share wakes up .... It normally storms (forwards or backwards very quickly).

We dropped from 28p to about 20p in a matter of days at the start of the Russian was ... So not reason we couldn't reverse that (probably not until the war is over).

In the meanwhile .... We either wait or sell out at a loss!

I don't really understand why people are topping up at around £1.5x when so many shares have / are being unloaded at between £1.475 and £1.50?

To me, it would seem clear that this is going to break £1.50 in very short order and then - according to the technical guys - we should see £1.38 in very short order.

I understand why LTHs might not want to sell at these levels but it does mistify me why people are adding when this is surely going to drop over the coming weeks .

Long term I totally agree that £1.5x will probably look a good average but why buy now as the share heads South.

And before anyone says it ... I'm not a shorter ... But am curious why people would add right now?

.... As soon as the seller(s) take their foot off its neck!

Early morning price action shows what's going to happen once the foot is taken off!

Just got to be patient!

The reason for the price rise in November 2020 was a positive trading update and a Covid vaccine being discovered.

The August 2021 rise didn't really start gaining any momentum until the morning of the 6th August and share moved rapidly from 36p up to 50p within about 10 days . This movement was, again, triggered by positive H2 results.

Question is: what's going to wake this share up now? I thought the results were pretty good on 10th March (and share price started rapidly rising) ..... But since then we've been held underwater by the big sellers and ftse 250 demotion.

I'm hoping once the seller(s) have gone we can start to recover ... It would have been nice to seen a bit more director confidence / purchases since the last results.

Time to sit and hold and prey .... In the knowledge we might not get a lot of traction here again until August HE results now!