Member Info for Trenners

@Wednesday I guess there are a lot of things, still, that could slow momentum (as you point out) but I think we need to look at that against a 25p share price.

I remember these trading in the mid 30s at the start of Covid and they went well into the 40s (in fact I think they touched 50p) when the vaccine was announced.

Things for CPI back in 2020 looked a lot worse then than they do now so I'm very optimistic that we will see 50p and beyond shortly .....

But how long is shortly? Well trading update is only 2 weeks away, yearly update 3 months away and half year update 8 months away.

CEO said, in July 2022, that he expected a share price around 97p by mid-2023;....

So let's say he's been 100% overly optimistic.... Then we should hope / expect to see at least 50p by next summer.

So .... 100% or more to hold for 8 months .... That's even a better return than property??

Obviously I'm bullish and as i've sat here, underwater, for so long it's just not worth giving up so late in the day.

Surely this is worth more than 25p a share? I think so but the market doesn't agree with me at the moment!

@Wednesday I'm glad you are getting impatient as I am getting impatient too .... The I remember Warren Buffett in that the stock market is a place where the patient takes money from the impatient.

If we are both getting impatient then we must be very close to that re-rate.

I'm not sure if the December update will be the catalyst we need but I've learned that CPI seems to lurch upwards often randomly and often on very little news.

I've been holding - on and off - since 2020 and I don't think we've got long to wait now!

After slumbering (or is that slumping) for almost a year - it looks like CPI is finally waking up.

The question is: will it be as sprightly now as it was in the past. Usually, when CPI wakes up, it moves very fast ....

It's been like waiting for paint to dry since late February .... But we need to sprint forward (to the mid 30s) to regain entry into the FTSE 250..... Which in turn should give us another lift upwards into the 40s or beyond ....

So I thought I'd do my bit to try and save the THG share price from falling further .... And duly ordered the LOOKFANTASTIC advent calendar for my daughter as an early Xmas gift.

So I placed the order over a week ago - it still hasn't shipped but I do get an email (every 3 days or so) saying the order is still being processed.

Call me old fashioned .... But wasn't Ingenuity supposed to be a world class automation solution that would help companies with the logistics of shipping products to their customers?

If THG can't even ship their own advent calendars with Ingenuity then why should any other company have faith in this technological solution!

I'm on the cusp of cancelling my order - no wonder the THG share price is in freefall (if this is how they respond to customer orders)!

Absolutely shocking... And to think I hold 60,000 shares in this company at a pride well north of £1!

We've got to assume he's not a complete buffoon -although fools and their money are soon parted - as every shareholder in THG (including me) has learned the hard way!

LA has bought because there are a lot of times during the year when he's not allowed to buy .... but he believes in the company (like us all) and is now sat on a big loss BUT

Being an insider and holding shares at a big loss is not unique to THG - By example Drahi bought 18% of total BT shares at £1.80 (also the CEO of BT bought a shed load at £1.63) and they are also sat on big big losses now.

Will this ever be worth £1.70 again? I guess it will if it can survive. It depends on your time scale. The important thing is survival (especially in a Bear market where stalwarts like BT are also massively down).

For me - I'm so far down the THG wishing well that I can't see daylight anymore and I just know that, if I were to sell, the share price would sprint upwards and not stop!

So - trust in Lord Allen and hope he's not the fool that some are suggesting he is .... Because if Lord Allen is foolish then we are all sunk!

GLA

I think / hope this is the week we finally make progress and I'm going for a close of 29.5p

We've been range bound for far far far too long and it's about time we broke out .... It's just a question of how settled (or unsettled) the markets are this week!

This is a really well run company with a NAV of at least £1.80 per share ..... With many suggesting this could be worth as much as £2.50 or more from the proceeds of a future GKN sell off.

This is certainly not a penny share and anyone buying beneath £1 is going to make a lot of money from this share over time .....

There isn't any evidence to support this.

It is OFTEN down ....but not ALWAYS .. and by way of example check the share price movement of Barclays on the 12th August - the share price rose on that day even though a 2.25p dividend was declared.

@Jax05 - I think you will do very well, in time, with a £1.05 or less average here and that will be a lot less than the majority writing on this board (including me).

The debate for LTHs is 'how long to wait before averaging down '

@TraderBuckie - but the dividend was only 0.85p per share - which goes no way to explain the share price destruction here.

The rot set in when the management announced they were going to float (rather than sell) the automotive business.

The consequence of this decision is that Melrose will be split into 2 separate entities BOTH of which may not be large enough to gain entry or remain in the FTSE 100.

So ....lots of institutions bailing before the split ....is the way I read it. And that's why it looks like we may head into penny share territory.

A rare mistake from a, usually, very astute management team

.... So with dividends kicked down the road again and no real news now until March 2023 (unless we win some more contracts) ..... Excepting the Xmas trading update (that was a debacle last year) .... This looks to be wanting to drift back up to the 50p region.

Whether it's got legs to seriously breach that now is highly debatable and I will be looking to cash in a lot of my CPI shares (again) at that level and watch for a convincing breakout above 52p (as I think the 55p breakout last September was a bit of a false flag and 52p has been a very tough nut to crack historically.

Anyhow - business looking in better shape, Schroder's adding again, all suggests we'll see 50p again sooner rather than later.

GLA

... as per my earlier post .....£1.08 has been breached and it looks and feels like it's going to head below £1 now .....and I'm hoping 96p will provide some support.

However - stock markets are looking like they might fall in October and I fear we could be heading back towards the 80s (last seen in the depths of Covid).

This is not a stock that does well in a bear market / recession though and with a NAV of £1.80/share ... Looks to be a fabulous investment at these levels!

GLA

It's really interesting that we seem to have stopped talking about being a tech company (and how Ingenuity is the gateway to future D2C world domination) and we now fret about the price of Whey and sell beauty products for less margin so that we can grow the retail base.

So we ARE an online retailer really then and not a tech company. The tech is all flim flam - albeit necessary flim flam to support the THG retail empire - and Ingenuity is rightly valued as 0 then.

If I'm right then I'm really disappointed as I invested because I thought ingenuity (and THG cloud services) might be special.

It also explains (just being another online retailer) why the share price has cratered (along with ASOS and Boo etc) as the recession looms.

I feel duped ..... And I suspect I'm not alone on here!

Looks like it's heading back towards the years low at around £1.08.

This is not a share which does well in a recession so whether £1.08 will hold is anyone's guess - although £1.08ish would be a fantastic entry (with management recently buying at £1.34).

Top up again if it hits 96p

I remember this was in freefall last September / October too .... Not really worried as I think BT will be around longer than me ... And a good opportunity to buy the dip ....

Interesting to see what Draghi / DT do (if anything) as the last time BT dipped Draghi was banned from bidding .... Not so at the moment though .....

I still hope to see the £1.90s again as the year draws to a close ......

Time to put the tin hat on for the time being though ..... absolutely wouldn't want to be out of this with Draghi around.

Trenners

@marherdj That's not entirely true - the share price performance in September / October 2021 was desperate and I think we dropped from around £1.65 on September 1st and hit a low of around £1.35 in October before staging a bit of a recovery in November / December.

I don't understand why we are languishing in the low £1.50s now given then share price dropped about 15p when they announced Drahi was being investigated and we didn't bounce at all when the investigation ended.

Perhaps it's the strike that's holding us back? Who knows - but this should not be in the £1.50s right now!

@JG68 I'm in a similar boat to you (with a slightly lower average at 29p) in that my patience is wearing a little thin here ...

However - we are in the funny season and until we've got a new prime minister and until the St Leger has been run (sell in May etc) .... I think it's difficult to gauge what's really happening here ...

But things look to be turning around, we seem to have reduced the debt, Pay360 should yield more cash for debt repayment and we seem to be winning more business.

So I think we just have to be patient.

I certainly won't sell at a loss (just for being impatient and giving money to the patient) but I am going to reassess once we get back to 29p (and, like you I may well consider selling half to invest elsewhere).

A lot of quality stocks seem to be drifting at the moment (eg BT IAG Baclays Lloyds Rolls Royce) and I think we should get a solid September bounce once the traders get back to work.

Whatever way you look at this - it should not be trading at 25p today. We were at 35p in the middle of phase 1 Covid in May 2020 with huge debt and before we sold businesses.

We drifted to 23p before the vaccine was discovered and bounced to 50p towards the end of 2020 (still with lots of debt).

We hit 50p after good half year results in 2021 and have been drifting downwards ever since even though we have significantly reduced debt and won some tasty contracts too.

This surely must head back to the 30s and 40s ahead of final results in March 2023 and significantly higher if the war would ever end in Ukraine and things were to return to normal in this crazy world.

Keep adding at these levels is obvious .... And much more sensible than betting on RED or BLACK over at CINE

Capita WERE up to their neck in debt - but they aren't NOW - most of the debt (after sale of the businesses) is attributed to Office Lease payments.

History may well note that selling businesses in 2020/21/22 to reduce debt was immensely foresighted by Lewis and the board given how interest rates in the UK seem to have a spring in their step.

Capita is currently priced to go bust yet the actions of Lewis and Co mean it will almost certainly survive!

@watsoccurring Let's hope your purchase has the lucky touch associated with it .... As otherwise we are going to sink below 25p and that would validate AimMasters prediction - which would be tragic - although a clock is right at least twice a day ??