Member Info for Trenners

@Capitalizer - yes I think it's time to buy more (and time to ignore NoFear)

Are you sure the 2 million was a sell? It looks like a buy to me (based on the transaction price of other deals around the 2 million).

I would have thought a 2 million sell would be significantly below the standard price at the point of execution.

Well it was me that called the (obviously false) triple bottom and I can only apologise.

It hasn't been fun entering the FTSE250 (yet) but it's still early days and the market, as a whole, has been pretty much down across the board this week

My advice (for what it's worth - and it's probably worthless after the false triple bottom call) is to start averaging down now in tranches .... Buying a few shares for every penny drop.

I'm holding firm with 400k shares as averaging down doesn't really work that well with that quantity holding.

I don't think anything has changed (only improved) with this company since latest reporting so it's just patience, faith and ignoring the noise.

Capita is a great company and the market will come to realise this in time and heartening to see The Times actually tipping the share yesterday (after all their recent negative press).

Well AM gets it wrong (again) - even a stopped clock is right twice a day (which is more than can be said for AM).

So they took out the 30p stop losses today to mop up the cheap shares .....nothing has fundamentally changed in the business since March (as Trustful says) .. so we continue to hold and wait for the return to the 40s and 50s and beyond.

@Beachfeont - I guess my optimism stems from the fact that I'm convinced that John Lewis has turned the business around, reduced debt to zero and has a strong sales pipeline (not least focused on the latest buzz words AI).

The 4 month results were on track (despite the hack) and they've announced over half a billion extra contract wins since then.

So ....I just see a disconnect between the share price and the company AND remember that these were trading at around £2 pre COVID - most stocks have recovered towards their pre COVID highs .... But this one has continued to languish.

Eventually value will prevail - it looks a wait for August result confirmation now however .... CPI has a habit of lurching upwards when you least expect it!

Anyhow that's why I'm positive and holding .... And it's early days yet (re FTSE 250 entry) so still time for the volume of buys to increase

Triple bottom incoming .....

Either I'm right or AM is .... Fingers crossed it's me!

I think we've just doubled bottomed at around 30.65p .... So as Yazz used to say ... The only way is UP

I admit this is not a great start to FTSE250 re-entry but the week is still young and the Americans are on holiday!

@wiseys - I assume the 27m trade you are referring to (as of last Friday) was the Uncrossing (UT) trade at 16:35 ?

If so - that trade had nothing to do with Odey (who I'm informed bought all his shares via CFD so their are none that need to be sold) - the 27 million UT trade was caused by triple witching ....

If you look across virtually all shares you will see a massive UT trade last Friday caused by TW.

@Laughinghelps - I see the Odey held about 20 million shares as at end of September 2022 - which is about 1.5% of the company - but I seem to recall he might have increased to 3% around the time of the March results (but I can't find the article to reference this).

So assuming he's got about 40 million shares - all being liquidated over the coming weeks - we need some strong FTSE250 buying to absorb all those.

However, with FTSE250 entry, I'm hopeful for a strong appetite for Capita and it's unclear how many of those Odey shares have already been sold (given the decline in the share price over the last week or two).

It is going to be an interesting run up to August results now ..... and I still think these will be nearer 50p (than 30p) as that time approaches.

@Laughinghelps - volumes can be very misleading during triple witching Friday - all the nonsense spouted on here about the large UT is .... Simply nonsense.

Every time we get triple witching we also get large UT trades in pretty much every share .....

CPI were certainly not alone with a mammoth UT .....it's just the triple witch!

Now we wait with bated breath to see what inclusion in the FTSE250 brings along on Monday.

I just admit CPI doesn't seem to be the luckiest share. We get a surge in early March (after results) for it to get wiped out because of fear over the hack THEN we get admitted into the FTSE250 at the same time as good old Crispin Odey (large holder) gets sidelined and will probably be liquidating his holding.

If we can rally whilst Odey is selling .... Well that would be positive..... Other than that .... We will have to wait until the 1st week in August for a surge - hopefully upwards but you never know with Capita!

@Beachfeont - I disagree - there is lots positive here ....it's just that nothing seems to move the share price at the moment.

We've recently announced large contract wins (£500million towards the end of May and a further £55million yesterday) and the share price leaps for a few hours before drifting back again (although we seem to be consolidating around 33p for the moment).

The sell off of the non strategic businesses continues to add strength to the balance sheet.

Someone suggested that a close above 35p.would be significant from a technical perspective.

Entry into the FTSE 250 next week will hopefully move us forward and we are only about 7 weeks away from the August results now (which surely must be good).

I'm not waiting for 34p .... I'm wanting 50p plus .... And I have been hopeful for a.move.forward ahead of FTSE250 entry but, so far, I've been proved wrong.

I would just be patient because, surely, these have got to be worth more than 33p over a 2 month time frame.

Far to many wild assumptions on this board about potential fines after the hack.

1. They may not get fined.

2. If they do get fined - it will be minimal (because if always is)

3. We don't know whether they have any cyber insurance and, if so, to what extent this will cover any costs.

4. Loads of other companies are getting hacked now (eg: BA, BBC and others) - Capita are now ahead of the curve in the hacking stakes having invested in further shoring up their infrastructure.

5. Possibly a new services division advising others on how to respond to being hacked.

Far too much doom and gloom has been attributed to the hack, imo, and when the market realises this - the SP will rocket.

Worse case scenario currently priced in - and I can't believe it's going to be as bad as that!

Trenners

I think we should see steady progress from here into the August results. Interesting to see that so many other organisations are now getting hacked (so Capita are not alone).

I'm still standing (as Elton would say)

@Laughinghelps - there was a H1 update last year - at the end of June - but this was unusual as they usually wait until August to update the market.

Capita Financial Calendar shows nothing planned until August now so I guess we need to wait for news and official entry into FTSE 250 to move this ....

Just a bit more patience needed!

Trenners

@NoFear - who cares - share has double bottomed, been admitted to the FTSE 250 and has broken the downtrend.

Time to stop moaning and start buying imo

Trenners

Well I think this is progressing very nicely .....nice rise every day against a FTSE that is falling ..... Very nice ...

This is going to move very quickly upwards on those days when the FTSE is moving in the same direction.

I'm still confident of seeing 40s in June and 50s as we approach results in August .....

I'm holding and smiling in the sun😁

Trenners

@TerryM - I think you are being very harsh in blaming the BOD for being "behind the curve" after the data hack.

Once the BOD realised there had been a breach of data security - they issued a holding statement to the marketplace whilst, at the same time, spending millions of pounds assessing and rectifying what had been breached.

The assessment is still ongoing and no doubt an announcement about the full extent will be made - once all the impacted parties have been privately notified.

The notification of affected parties is what is causing the constant dripping (of the same story) in the press at the moment but is having little impact on the SP.

I think the BOD have handled it very professionally and the IR communication has been good (which hasn't always been the case with Capita).

I'd be interested to understand how you would have handled it differently? Until the full facts are known then nothing can be sensibly reported. It would be disingenuous of the BOD to issue any statement without knowing the full facts

You criticise the BOD for taking the 'nothing to see here' stance - but what else could they honestly do until the facts are known. Answer: Nothing

This constant news drip will cease once everyone has been notified and a final RNS is issued confirming the extent of the data breach and what measures have been taken.

I'd be very surprised - as Capita have handled this so professionally - if the ICO decided to impose a fine but, of course, that's my opinion.

If they do get fined - it will be minimal - because it always is minimal (based on history with other companies).

Time to move on and enjoy life in the FTSE250 as this share is itching to rise again now!

Trenners

.... at which point we will be on the cusp of readmission to the FTSE250.

Data hack is very much yesterday's news ...

FTSE 250 readmission should drive this higher through June (just as relegation drove us so much lower in March 2022).

I think there is a very good chance of 46p into June and more than 50p if you can wait until early August.

That immensely well time RNS (surely not coincidental) should ensure we rally over the next couple of trading days and easily slip into the FTSE250 now.

Helen Parris has played a blinder and she's so much better than that other IR guy (who seemed to be the Private Fraser "weeeeeeee'rrrrreeeee doooooooommmmmed") of IR / PR.

By issuing the RNS now has surely assured a steady rise into the Bank Holiday weekend and beyond ..... Brilliant!

And if we get a positive RNS about the hack then you can light the rocket blasters

Time for the FEARFUL and the AIMLESS to start buying again I would suggest!

Trenners