Member Info for Trenners

@Culley01 - I found that following piece written by Evil Knieval in his Evil diaries a couple of weeks ago - I don't know if you've already seen it.

"Capita (CPI) reported last week and duly fell 20%. And then over the weekend the SunTel reported a claim by a buyer of a CPI business that the licences required and warranted by CPI were unsound. This is a pity since I keep on expecting CPI to leap clear and show a clean pair of heels. It does not."

I'd also add that British Bulls are now predicting a possible Bullish Morning star marking the end to the downtrend - so perhaps things are about to turn!

At least tomorrow won't be another down day as the market is closed 😁😁😁

Ha - reviewing that article made me chuckle again.

I think the executive summary was that JL joined an absolute 'basket case' of a company at the beginning that was heading the same was as Carillon (to the knackers yard).

However - at the cost of a shareholder bailout (via the rights issue) - he did actually save and streamline the company into something that now looks to be a going / sustainable company again.

His comments about getting the SP back to the pre rights issue price of 97p "in a year or two* made me smile as that was one of the reasons that I, at the moment, foolishly increased my long term capita holdings.

I think JL would want to retire with the acknowledgement that he had saved the company and the turn around was beginning to show fruit so I am quietly optimistic for the March FY update now.

However - I'm not brave enough to add any more shares at these levels .... I guess I'm an exhausted buyer, down a very dark well at the moment, hoping we rally back into the 20s as quickly as we plummeted into the teens!

We should be grateful for small mercy's - for all those that are scared witless about how Capita might be fined after it's minor cyber attack - take a read at this.

https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/security/hosting-firm-says-it-lost-all-customer-data-after-ransomware-attack/

Now that's what I call a cyber attack!

@Capitalizer - yes I totally agree with you - drop isn't to do with the cyber incident - it's debt and profit related.

In which case we should be near the bottom now as this sell off has been over done imo

@Viewing - well you shouldn't be terrified - Capita absolutely had cyber insurance (as reported by The Insurer - see my link below) and the purpose of cyber insurance is to protect the business against class action (amongst other things)

@Xenor - what we need is positive news to stop the rot.

This could be director purchases (don't hold your breath), half billion pound framework signed, ICO confirm minimal or no fine for hacking incident, large II buying into Capita, other new contract wins (and for the desperate to exit) or a takeover approach (about as likely as a director buying shares).

For what it's worth - I don't see 15p either but then I thought the rot would have stopped at 18p - and perhaps it will stop at around this level.

This isn't going bust - in a business sale we have some profitable contracts and assets to sell - and 17p / 18p bottom feels right for now!

I guess my forecast is as good as the next man's - it just felt that closing under 18p was the sign of capitulation and from here we start going back up (albeit slowly without news)

@JG68 - yes as you say - its not specifically stated in the results (that they are claiming on their cyber insurance) so it was heartening to find The Insurer link which confirms they are making a cyber insurance claim.

I agree the insurance won't cover any fine (I don't believe there will be one but if I'm wrong it's only going to be minimal) nor will the insurance cover the costs to repair the damage (which is why we are in a £25 million hole).

So - for me - the hack is a non issue - and shouldn't impact capita (give or take £25m) - so the downtrend is debt and free cash flow and possibly change of CEO related (uncertainty around future strategy) and not the hack!

Oh and here is the link re: Capita Cyber Insurance

https://www.theinsurer.com/news/capita-confirms-cyber-insurance-claim-increases-own-net-loss-estimate-to-25mn-following-q1-incide/

Regarding fines - as posted previously - I think Capita have handled this professionally reporting the hack to the ICO immediately and then spending £ms investigating and fixing the issues.

UNLIKE the electoral commission that for hacked in 2021 / 2022 and only recently fessed up to the issue....

So I would suggest the electrical commission is a lot more likely to be fined than Capita.

Of course reality doesn't mean that the MMs won't use this to batter the share price - but I think investors need to take some perspective on this!

@IanB - but Capita reported they will using their Cyber insurance to cover any claims made against them from the hack - that's what cyber insurance is for and that's why Capita took it out in the first place.

They reported they are spending upto £25 million to further bolster security and investigate what happened and the Cyber Insurance will cover the rest .

I honestly believe that this fall is NOT related to the hack because, if it was, it would have dived to these depths on announcement of the hack back in early April.

Whatever is driving this lower is not because of the fear of being sued by no win no fee lawyers - that's all covered by Cyber insurance!

*It was in a NoFear post responding to me

@aim - 20p is the new 30p was in a post (replying to something I had written).

I actually don't subscribe to 20p is the new 30p - this is being relentlessly driven down at the moment and, at some point, it will bottom and then the recovery begins.

Once we start recovery this should easily push back through 20p and head to 30p and beyond but at the moment the MM have got their knee on its throat.

Until the knee is removed - we will continue down.

The problem is though that the 20p brigade sold at 19p for a loss, the 19p brigade sold at 18p for a loss, and it's looking like it will be turn of the 18p brigade soon!

@TerryM1 - of course the latest HY results could have kitchen sinked all the bad news (hopefully) so that FY will surprise the market and allow JL to exit into the sunset as a hero 😁

Ha .... I'm probably dreaming - but I can only see positives moving forward and, anyway, I'm in sucha hole here that I can no longer see daylight😁

@TerryM1 - I agree he doesn't get a lot of respect from shareholders (and even less respect from you 😁) but it's still important we retain continuity with Government to ensure that the (admittedly paltry) remaining shareholder value isn't destroyed.

In any case - it would be very odd for a CEO to retire without some form of handover (however much we would all like to see him disappear into the sunset)

I think there is going to be a period of handover .... And that probably isn't a bad thing although I know that a lot on this forum (and elsewhere) want to see the back of JL ...

BUT .... Capita win a huge amount of business from government and, as mentioned by Helen Parris when I wrote to her, JL is highly respected by the Cabinet Office.

I agree a change of strategy / name is going to be welcomed but it's also important not to shoot the goose that lays the golden eggs (Government) whilst rushing for business innovation and transformation.

If JL staying for a 12 month handover is what is needed to calm Government (and leverage that half billion pound new framework that is due to be formally signed with Government in H2) - then I don't begrudge him 12 months more lay before his pension kicks in.

Government contracts are hard to win but - SHOULD BE - profitable for long periods of time (once secured).

Just saying .....

I'll be astounded if CPI is fined by the ICO. The whole data hack issue has been overblown by all the shortest to drive down the share price.

If you look at how little Capita has been hacked compared to the electoral commission or BA (got hacked twice) or BBC or Boots .....or the publishing of all that confidential data by NI police .... And the fact that Capita immediately notified ICO and spent millions investigating and fixing the issues ....

I don't think a fine is due ....if anything an award is due (for handling it so professionally).

Ha what to I know .... but probably more than the trolls constantly beating this share due to a small (in the great scheme of things) hack

@Beachfeont - I'm in the same position as you (having bought a lot of shares before the HY update and been adding more as the knife fell).

My confidence was beginning to shake this afternoon but, on reflection, I don't think we can do anything other than wait for this to turn around

I still don't think this is going bust (even though the share price indicates the opposite) but I also don't see the point of buying any more

It's a solid hold for me and let's hope we get some positive news (on just about anything) so this can start it's recovery.

Every day's a down day at the moment and that's depressing even for the most hardened of long term holders and the lack of purchases from the directors is expected but still disappointing.

@PanamaPete - it just feels like we are at the point of capitulation. It's been a relentless downtrend since HY results and we trade at almost 10 year lows.

Lots of people (including me) considering how to rescue this situation (without crystallising a 30% loss over the medium term) and it's a close call ...

Bail now and switch into something more trustworthy than will recover 30% in the medium term (eg BT or VOD or even BARC) ......or sit here and wait for recovery if / when that every happens.

For me 18.46p just feels too low here (although the way things are going to could be 17.46p by the end of the week) ....

However - I can see a lot of people rushing for the exit if this ever flirted with 20p again!

@Xenor - I doubt you money will do nothing for the next year as IF full year guidance is achieved, IF the new CEO buys a load a shares, ASSUMING we get some more contact wins, ASSUMING the business sale process is concluded and IMPORTANTLY the underlying business is proven to be profitable - then these shares are likely to be 3 or 4 times higher than they are today.

When I buy a house, I buy it, wait a few years for the market to rise and then sell it.

I see little difference here - the opportunity in this share is IMMENSE (remember is was trading at £1.70 pre COVID) and all the things listed above are readily deliverable ....

So it's a hold for me ... I'm waiting for 38p then I'll review what I'm doing - I chose 38p, funnily enough, because that's the price I need to clear my outstanding mortgage!

@Capitalizer - I agree this is a hold but I disagree about the profit warning. The management have been steadfast that they are on track for full year guidance and I've seen nothing to suggest otherwise

It is certain we will get more full year impairments though for the hack (£9m more) and for goodwill relating to business sale but we should also see debt reduced further.

What the market makes of that (in March 2024) only time will tell and without further news now it looks like we are firmly stuck under 20p

@JG68 I'm not worried either tbh (although I'd be happier if we were sat in the late 20s rather than late teens) ...

My recent adding has meant I've now acquired 539k shares with an overall average of 27.9p which isn't great but - historically - is brilliant.

I was holding too many ahead of results as I expected them to be well received (and we all now know how that's turned out) and am too obese if CPI shares now to move the average very much (without sticking huge amounts of extra capital into the share - which I'm not prepared to do).

With £150k invested in CPI at £5390 gain (or loss) per penny movement - I've decided to call it a day and wait for a massive tax-deductible loss if CPI goes bust (highly unlikely) or for the market to appreciate what a hidden gem CPI is.

Even though I'm about 30% down here - it's my best performing share as I'm more than 35% down on BT and THG.

Ha - I really have got the lucky touch when it comes to share picking 😁