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@JG68 - yes I got the sense that will be another load of exceptional items at full year then things short start to settle as we move into 2024.

What is frustrating, to me, though is that (according to Helen's email) all of the exceptional item write downs had already been announced to the market (excluding the extra £7m cash outflow) and should not have been a surprise to the market at all

I can't help but think that the market has over reacted to the 67million accounting loss (against the 33 million trading profit) and instigated some form of short attack during a week trading month.

I honestly can't see any negative difference (only positive improvement) in the Capita business between when we were trading in the 30s (after the hack was announced) in April / May / June and now (where we struggle to break 19p).

At the end of the day - if we have to wait until August 2024 for H1 2024 results to confirm what a fabulous business this is ...... Then I'm happy to wait ... As the share price at the point is likely to be many more multiple times than the price is today.

I'm also hoping - when the traders are back from the summer holidays in September - that the market will realize that this should be back in the 30s and not in the teens!

But what do I know ... I was still adding at 26.5p just before the crash .... And I've bought a few more at 22.34p and 20.68p and 19.85p. Every time I add - the price drops further so I've stopped adding!

How about you - JG68 - have you got a shed load of these too?

@RogueRiver - I can't see the relevance of any of your points. We didn't get a bounce coming into FTSE 250 so should get a drop when we fall out, china have no relevance to capita, small recession would encourage more outsourcing, most of our contracts are already signed and this share does REALLY WELL in a recession.

And with virtually zero debt - nothing to worry about here ....

@NoFear - the fall in CPI share price is a punishment for the poor and confusing results of August 4th when a lot of people (me included) felt reassured that things were on track.

BUT the wider market is in freefall as well and Capita is a high BETA share so when the market falls - it drops with the market too.

Shares such as BT and VOD (both yielding tasty dividends) are about 30% down since May and even Legal & General (yielding 9% and going ex dividend next week) can't stop falling ...

It's a perfect August storm that isn't going to be resolved, hopefully, until the traders come back from the South of France in September.

@NoFear - I doubt the decision to sell the shares was based on the prevailing share price - a tax and NI bill became due to she sold enough shares to cover it .... It's almost certainly as simple as that.

Great you've written to Helen Parris again although, it's fairly obvious, that recent share activity would suggest she hasn't got any new IIs buying shares yet! 😁

So the question for tomorrow is: will we break down to a new low .... ? And I fear the answer may be Yes!

Free shares - whatever the price - a profit is a profit ...

Just means she has no vested interest in the success of Capita (unlike us) ... But then that seems par for the course for this board of directors.

Even my patience is wearing thin now in this most frustrating of shares - which means we must be coming towards the turning point!

@Xenor - that's exactly what I've been saying - it can't be any potential ICO fine that's hitting the share price so hard as, if that was the case, it would have plummeted when the hack was first announced back at the start of April

The drop has got to be debt and free cash flow related (as suggested by IR). The market wanted less debt (but some of the business sale proceeds have been deferred to H2) and the market wanted Free cash flow (and possibly dividends) but all this was wiped out by the repayment of furlough, pension fund contributions, write off of goodwill associated with business sales etc

Well we've certainly been punished (unfairly) and we just need some good news now to heal.

It's a shame that JL has got short arms as a big purchase from him would speak volumes but I'm not holding my breath for that one!

@GoCPI - I agree that we've had virtually zero buying support after the August results and that is surprising.

I'm not convinced, though, that the fear is around ICO potential fines because a) they are likely to be minimal, b) hacking is almost an everyday occurrence now (Northern Ireland, Electoral Commission, BA twice, BBC, Boots all spring to mind), c) in the great scheme of things the hack was minimal compared to the others mention.

I know the market doesn't like uncertainty but it isn't obvious that Capita have done very much wrong (that led to the hack) and typically these ICO fines are small .

I think there was an expectation of free cash flow for dividends, that wasn't delivered, and the market punished the share price accordingly THEN ...

All the traders piled into CPI looking for a quick 10% bounce and ended up selling at a 10% loss - for another set of traders to try their 10% luck and also getting punished.

I'm hopeful this is going to settle down a bit now. It's definitely oversold and I think a contract win or two, confirmation that ICO fine will be non existent or minimal, Adolfo coming on board and buying some shares too - will all move us back in the right direction.

That's my expectation anyway

@Xenor - that's an amazing average and you must make money in the medium (and perhaps even short) term with that.

My average is 27.9p and I've got A LOT of CPI shares but I'm still not worried as I'm convinced this business will not go bust and, historically, a 27.9p average has been a very good position to be in.

We are just in strange times at the moment and I'm certainly not crystallizing my paper losses - if I did then the share would bounce immediately (as you previously stated) - it just means my money is possibly locked away for a few more months (or possibly a year) as sentiment changes.

Luckily I don't need the cash at the moment 😉

@Xenor - I share your viewpoint and it does look like the 18p, so far today, has been manufactured by moving spreads around.

I've stopped adding now (having added more when I though the bottom was in at 20.68p - which looks sick now but will hopefully pay off in the medium term).

I can't see the point of chasing it down further (other than for the self satisfaction of knowing - like AimMaster maybe - that I bought some CPI in the 18s)

Ha I've got so many CPI shares now - buy a few more will barely move my average anyway (even if I paid 18p for them)

@Xenor - it would be interesting to know WHY it has got this low though. I know the answer is it's because people are selling .... But WHY are they selling and are they really selling (or is this market manipulation of some kind)?

According to the Daily Mail this morning - the fall yesterday (making capita the 5th biggest faller) was 'Rising Costs'.

I didn't see any news about Rising Costs yesterday and, to my knowledge, all the Capita contracts are inflation proofed so as costs rise .... So do the contract values.

All very odd at the moment ....

@NoFear - a takeover would be good news for virtually all of the investors here (who are all in various states of loss).

BUT - I do think a takeover rumour is, at best, wishful thinking.

Lack of Director buys are, sadly, the norm for CPI - whatever the news - with JL last buying after a bad trading update in 2021. I'm hoping Adolfo will put his hand in his pocket when he joins in Q4.

Whatever is driving this share price ever lower - it's important that PIs don't sell and crystallize any losses as,.with the underlying order book, this is unlikely to go bust anytime soon (and confirmed by UBS in their latest research note).

I can't profess to know what's going on in the background but when I exchanged emails with IR (shortly after 4th August results), Helen Parris was very clear that JL had the confidence of not only large II but also the Cabinet Office.

In the absence of any TR1s - then suggesting large IIs are unloading seem wide of the mark.

It's astonishing we've dropped to these levels as the results were, overall, positive with revenue and profit UP. I appreciate that the exceptional items (again) pushed this into loss but the underlying business looks healthy ....

In fact it's looking healthier than it's done in a very long time - when these shares traded at levels such as £1.70 (pre COVID), 35p - 45p during COVID and as high as 55p post COVID (in September 2021).

The hack was unfortunate, Odey having to liquidate his large holding was even more unfortunate and it's possible we are seeing an overhang from Odey here as it looks as though he sold his entire holding in a 27p fire sale (which looked very cheap at the time and positively overpriced now).

If Odeys stock buyer is now offloading to cut their losses then that might be understandable but I do believe that JL and this company maintain the support of their large IIs and I will continue to believe that until I see the TR1 RNSs to the contrary.

@Crowman - if this does get taken out then I can't see anything less than 60p being accepted by Schroder given they bought about 19% of the company for 46p.

That's probably the reason why PE has been so quiet here (as they don't want to pay more than 30p - 40p)

I guess - at the end of the day - numbers don't lie and debt is heading towards 0, sales are up and profit is up.

The disposal program is nearing its end so,.moving forward, pension contributions and disposal costs will be down.

Which leaves a streamlined business with a huge number of profitable government contracts and a growing pipeline.

Those are the reasons I'm still heavily invested here ... JL leaving, btw, has been planned for some time and I wouldn't describe a managed handover as 'scarpering'.

If JL wants to gain the benefit of all those free stock options (which he received over the years) then I would suspect he'd like to see the share price nearer 90p than 19p ... As we all would!

JL doesn't leave for another 12 months so he's still got time to get this share price moving in the right direction again!

@Xenor - the thing is, whatever way you look at it, this share is at an all time low, is highly highly unlikely to go bust, has a huge volume of (7% profitable) contracts and a growing pipeline.

It's got to be worth more than 20p..... It's probably got to be worth 40p or even 60p ....but as aleman said yesterday - the market doesn't realise it YET.

Which means we invest then sit and wait - even if we wait 6 months or 12 months - this looks certain to double or triple with virtually no likelihood of going bust.

Maybe there are more exciting short term places to put your money on the stock market right now - but I can't see many better opportunities than this for the PATIENT FEW.

As Warren Buffet says - the stock market is a place where the patient take money off the impatient and Capital absolutely fits that mould!

Who cares if it hits 18p (other than we will have to put up with AimMaster as a shareholder) if this looks certain to be 40p or 60p or even 80p (Rodney) next year!

I'm just sat waiting patiently now for the rise to start in Ernest.

@Xenor - I still think it's early days here and also it's August (with many traders away) so we may not see much pick up until early September.

I disagree about CPI being a slow mover though ... You've only to look at the charts for early August 2023 (on the down trend) or March 2023 (on the uptrend) to see she can move quickly when she wants to.

These sort of rapid movement patterns stretch back many years btw

@GoCPI - I agree that CPI is almost certainly going to be range bound for a while and I'm hopeful that the bottom is now in.

19p through 25p / 26p seems sensible although I would not discount a range as high as 28p as the MM were happy to hold it around there for some considerable time in 2023.

Anyhow ..... 25p feels a lot more comfortable than 18p 😁

However ... With news (such as the half billion contract predicted to be signed in H2, a new strategic update from Adolfo etc) ... I don't think 30p is out of the question before year end!

Ha I knew this would start it's recovery after I called for 18p. I added again this morning and I'm now 'clinically obese' with CPI shares.

I'd like to see this get back to 23p soon (as a strong bulls / bears battle was fought - and lost - at around that level as the share was in freefall)

I don't think this is ready to start the healing process yet.

It's got 18p written all over it ....

I can't believe I just wrote that (I'd better go for a line down again now)!😁

Don't sell - at least hold - these were 30% higher last week and, although highly unlikely, what's to say they won't be 30% higher next week.

As long as you don't need the invested cash then just sit and hold until the share price recovers .... And it will recover ..... As the underlying business is sound .... And the debt is continuing to be paid down.

Whether you get your 30% back next week, next month, next year or 2025 is anyone guess .... But selling after such a rout is just pointless.

Oh ... And I'm about 25% down myself!