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@gotoutjustintime

Aldolfo won't become a company director until he takes up his new CEO position (some time during Q4) - so until then any purchase is going to be under the radar.

The person we REALLY need buying right now is JL .... I haven't given up hope that he will come good in the end because if the CFO sees value then JL must see the value too (and usually listen to their CFOs on these kind of matters)

It wouldn't surprise me to see an RNS stating Adolfo has started ... Then shortly after an RNS to confirm he's bought a million or two shares ...

@Scaredycat

I totally agree with what you say and I, too, was relieved when the CFO decided to buy shares (announced via RNS today).

I can think of noone better placed (than the CFO) to understand the commercial viability of CPI.

His purchase sort of confirms what we already assumed - this is NOT the best Carillion and it WON'T be going bust anytime soon.

The CFO purchase confirms ongoing business viability and, by extension, profitability.

The share price may still be falling (for now) but soon it's going to turn (probably when our seller is exhausted)

@NoFear

Could really do with a million share purchase by JL now to set this motoring upwards

It's nice the CFO is now seeing value but it would be nicer if the CEO followed suit now.

I'm not convinced our seller has finished selling yet - which isn't helping matters - and maybe JL is waiting for the seller to finish ...

Or maybe JL only takes FREE CPI shares!

Oh! And the CFO bought half a million shares!

At long last .....sound the trumpets

.... well what happened yesterday ?

1. AimMaster finally bought some CPI stock

2. Around 1% of CPI stock was traded.

3. SP bounced strongly off 16.25p giving hope that the bottom had finally been found.

4. TerryM1 wrote a series of posts (almost as long as War and Peace) detailing his CPI journey.

5. I topped up at 16.69p and am already losing money on my latest top up! 😁

6. Beachfeont may have sold 20% of his holding to cut his losses (or was that the day before)?

I've decided to add more and think 16.6 is too low (but then I thought that at 17.6, 18.6, 19.6 and even 20.6 😁)

There must be a large seller in the background and that's why MW started shorting (because they knew this) ...

Just got to sit tight now as, surely, the seller is going to be exhausted soon ...... And THEN ..... I'd like to see a few director buys too .... But that's pointless until the seller has gone

I'm joining in the call.for an EGM - 539k shares

@Beachfeont

You just know that, now you have reduced, this is going to storm forward (like RR did).

I wish you luck but I can't see the point of crystallizing losses at 16.7p (unless you need the money).

The time to take the loss was 20p but hindsight is a wonderful thing that only AimMaster possesses 😁

@JG68

KPIs are really important though as the Capita Customer Base (ie: mainly the Government) will measure the effectiveness of the Capita service delivery (using KPIs) and this will, in turn, aid the decision to renew or cancel future contracts .

I think, as long as Capita don't go bust AND Adolfo doesn't decide on a new rights issue, we should be OK here and just patience is required.

On 5th June this traded as high as 35p and I don't really see much change in business metrics since then. So, if you don't need the money then it's probably worth ignoring the SP for the time being.

Are we going bust? Well with cost cutting underway, low / no debt, £3billion plus Government contracts in the bag - this can't be another Carillion.

What about a right issue? Well, I guess that's a painful possibility but I don't see why we would need new rights whilst we have zero debt.

So - I'm showing enormous paper loss at the moment but I think back to 888 when it doubled in a week or two and then went on to grow by another 25% shortly afterward ...

I'm think the same will happen here ....

I don't think even Viagra could make this share rise at the moment!

@JG68

I'm hoping the reason they haven't bought is because they are working on something that is share price sensitive in the background ...

I FEAR however that your analysis of the situation is probably the correct version.

Very disappointing not to see any director purchases here!

@passingthru - nice of you to drop by again ... I think the last time you passed through was when you purchased CPI (in September 2020) at 33p at around the time that there was a false rumour that CPI was about to be taken over and an RNS was issued to clarify the situation.

Anyhow - back in September 2020 - CPI was burdened with huge debt, low profitability, lots of disparate businesses and we were in the middle of COVID .....

YET .... you still saw value at almost double the current SP.

Now - we are leaner, meaner, almost debt free, profitable and with a growing pipeline (and COVID seems long forgotten)....

You saw value @ 33p in 2020 but don't see value in 2023 @ 17.8p ..... That doesn't make sense to me!

Ha - we were both wrong about Melrose :) - but I certainly made a few thousand pounds buying low and selling higher! I haven't bothered wjth Melrose since the split though.

Regarding CPI - I think this is no longer a basket case and is duena rerate. These were trading at £1.70 whilst we were at Melrose.

The results were pretty good at the start of August (if you ignore all the exceptional items (most of which weren't exceptional and the market should have expected them) - but the market disagrees with my assessment.

My guess is that this is probably close to the bottom and those calling for 15p sound like me and you calling for 50p at Melrose - it'll never happen.

I bought to early here but won't bail at a (huge) paperless because I have faith in the business and I do think the turn around is just about complete.

I know you always want lower - but other than that - what are your thoughts on Capita?

@2reincarnated - haven't seen much of you since the old days when we used to spar on the Melrose forum!

Always good to see you turn up though ... As when you turn up you can be sure that the share is in bargain basement territory.

CPI at anything less than 40p is a bargain - not just my opinion but also Evil Knieval (The Master Investor).

I can't help thinking, though, that the 40p mountain is going to be a tough climb without some form of ground breaking news!

I'm not insane enough to try and predict a closing price BUT it would be good to cross 18.81p as, according to British Bulls, that is the price where they will switch from short to buy and confirm the Bullish Morning Star pattern (which basically marks the end of the downtrend).

All eyes on 18.81p for me - doesn't have to be at close - any time will do!

@broomtree - I agree that it would be nice to see us shooting up on such a positive day - I guess the only thing to mitigate the situation is that, I think, 18p is major resistance ... Also the traders are probably still on holiday and the market still seem to have their knee of this shares throat.

On another positive we are 1.99% up against a FTSE rise of 1.41% ... Although overall disappointing and I think it's going to be a slow recovery from here!

@NewChapter - I think your logic is sound. Schroders holding such a large stake, at such a higher level, should protect us from low ball PE offers.

I'm over £50k down at the moment - but not worried because I'm not selling and I don't need the money for a while (probably just as well😁).

What I can say is that this share can move (in both directions) very quickly but I firmly believe the underlying business is now sound thanks partly to JL (who often gets a good kicking on this forum) and partly to those investors who save the company a few years ago by subscribing to the RI.

Evil Knieval - The Master Investor - has been sweet on Capita for some years (he was screaming how 40p was a bargain entry point back in 2020) - and the business is in much better shape than then.

Just hold onto your Capita shares - ignore any paper loss - I honestly can't see this going bust (else I would have sold by now) - all will come very good in the end!

@NewChapter - it's not a problem (Schroders holding out for 60p because this business is worth a lot more than that but the market doesn't currently agree).

However PE aren't going to be tabling a cheeky 40p offer (because the share price is currently depressed) with the knowledge that it's never going to be accepted by Schroders (being the majority holder).

I'm so underwater here I would love for this to be taken out by PE or Serco or anyone who sees value .....but I just don't see it happening for less than 60p

@Billybob15 - I think this has fallen too far and too quickly but the problem is that Schroder (with a 19% holding) bought in at around 46p so they aren't going to let this go for anything less than 60p ....

So even though 17.59p might look attractive - the 60p needed to close the deal and persuade Schroders looks a lot less attractive.

The CVC takeover was a false rumour that occurred in September 2020. CVC were interested in possibly bidding for certain divisions of Capita (ESS from memory) but were never interested in buying the whole company.

An RNS was issued in September 2020 to quash the CVC bid rumour.