Member Info for Trenners

@Xenor

It's just not worth the gamble - you might make a few extra shares when the gamble pays off - but even now with CPI down 2.5% on the day - the amount you get for free is not going to be that significant after dealing charges and stamp duty and buy / sell spread.

I know there are lots of people changing their arms ..... But all their profit could be easily wiped out if CPI suddenly moved upwards whilst they were out ...

Not for me .... But congratulations on your winnings!

@Xenor

It's a mistake to try and gamble the movement on this share just to steal a few thousand extra ....

The gamblers scrape a few hundred pounds here and there by constantly trading ..... the investors make tens of thousands of pounds by holding ....

This will be back into the 30s / 40s / 50s and maybe beyond in the course of the next 12 months ..... not need to gamble for pennies if you can hold for pounds ...

My advice - take the loss and buy back what you sold at the bell yesterday.... I don't think you will regret it!

I think those that skimmed at 17.3p yesterday are going to be regretting their ill timed gamble by the end of the week.

This is looking much stronger now ....

It looks like the "sell at 17.3p" skimming brigade have been out in force again this morning .....

But ... having crossed the magical 17.02p (as defined as a BUY by British Bulls) ... I've got a feeling that the skimmers will be buying back at 18p very soon.

Great news we are still winning contracts too ...

@Trisor

Schroder sold a few in August and bought them back in September - but it was only a few - so I doubt their average has moved down very much at all .... so perhaps 45.9p rather than 46p.

Just my guess but I think one of the main reasons why we haven't received any cheeky offers (of 30p a share for example) has been because of the Schroder holding.

For me - I'd rather CPI prove the turn around is complete and then rerate rather than get taken out by PE (after all the heavy lifting of the turn around has been completed) for a cheeky offer right now.

Perhaps if I had a lower average or if I had joined the party just recently - I would have a different view - but I've been holding these since the start of the pandemic so I really want some juicy reward for my patience!

@Trisor

Well Schroder have 19% of the company at a 46p average so I doubt they would support a takeover at anything less than that ..... and probably quite a bit further north than that.

So 60p plus would be my guess ..... which is not supported by the current FCF ... which is why we haven't had any offers yet ....

You can always here the drum of the impatient on here as soon as the talk turns to takeover target!😁

I would say, though that AimMaster called the 15.9p bottom correctly although it was only for 32 shares on the sell side so I don't think he managed to get his buy in price!

If this was going to be imminently taken over then JL or the Chairman or the CFO wouldn't be buying shares .... so I wouldn't bank on that happening at all

All we need is a change if sentiment based on a solid set of numbers! That's not a lot to ask!

@Jonnyboi

I think the most likely, and possibly biggest, announcement for the remainder of this year is the joining of the new CEO ... and the announcement will be even bigger if he follows through with a share purchase.

Waiting for the December update maybe leaving it too late (depending on the actual date that Adolfo takes over) but we do know it will be before the end of 2023

My thoughts are that any class action re: cyber attack will be covered by their cyber insurance and they have already provisioned £25m now in 2023 accounts as a cost in relation to this incident.

The reason no one is talking about it anymore is that it's old news and has been dealt with.

The share is not at 16p because of the cyber attack as, if that were true, it would have plunged (to16p) when the attack was "new news" in April. Instead the share steadied around the 30s for April, May and some of June.

The low share price is because the MM want proof of free cash flow and more evidence that the turn around is complete ..... and we should all have that evidence over the next 6 plus months (if not sooner)

@Rock200

I couldn't agree more.

If you believe the turnaround is complete (and FCF is on the horizon) it doesn't really matter how low this drops .... because it will recover ... and I believe.

It's just like the greedy gambler who wishes he'd bet £100 on the winning horse rather than the £5 bet. Never content with their winnings and always wanting more. Or - as a shareholder - always wanting a lower average.

From a shareholding perspective - it doesn't matter how low this goes because I'm not selling .... no point regretting that I've still got a mid 20s average .... it's not important unless I sell

So 15p or 14p isn't going to change my life because I'm not selling at a loss .... unless CPI goes bust ..... which is not going to happen!

@Cagney

You are almost right ..... sentiment is bad here at the moment .... but the company is not a dead loss .....

It's got multi billion pound, signed, contracts and once the market see the changes (to profitability) that JL and Adolfo (moving forward) have implemented - this share will re rate.

It's just a waiting game for the MM to see that Capita is a streamlined profitable services business and not a complete basket case (which is how it was before JL took over).

I think most would agree with the above sentiment (except for TerryM who lost a shed load of money in the rights issue and so I can understand why he isn't happy with how JL has performed)

@Xenor

The problem is that the moment you try and trade this at 17.3p - it won't return to the mid 16s (for the trade).- but will continue ever skyward.

I know you have a low average (compared to very many on here) and I would simply say - be patient - this will rise back into the 20s soon enough.

It's not about having the perfect average now .... it's about holding for the perfect profit later .... it's just not worth the 0.8p gamble to try and trade this at these levels ....

@JG68

And there lies the problem - CPI have not YET proved that they have been turned around and those large contracts are profitable ....

BUT when they do prove the above .... this will absolutely fly ...

Just need to be patient!

I was on Jury duty yesterday and got chatting to a current CPI employee (of some years standing) and he was very positive about the company and the transformations that have been implemented under JL.

I know JL isn't often flavour of the month/year (on this forum) but the guy I was chatting to couldn't praise JL enough and he was also mega positive re: Aldopho joining and the ways that his Amazon experience could be utilised to cut costs and improve profitablity.

Ha a fellow juror overheard our conversation and said she was going to buy some Capita shares after listening to our discussions .

I'm going to do an AimMaster .... and make the call .... I think the bottom is in here ... and we will never see the 15s ....

That's probably the kiss of death ... but that's what I think!

@NoFear

Welcome back - glad you are not locked up! - we would all miss you (well most of us would miss you anyway 😁)

This share seems to like to sit range bound for long periods of time before zooming upwards or downwards....

Just need to be more patient ...

@mylordflashheart

Thanks for your kind words. There is just so much ramping on this board that it can get a bit draining. NoFear seems to have disappeared (perhaps he's been locked up in the funny farm) and sharehead has replaced him as ramper in chief.

I think most people here are in a hole - I'm personally in a crater - and only time will enable us, hopefully, to escape.

This is not a share to watch every 5 minutes however, like you, I can't help myself

Best wishes Trenners

@JG68

I didn't hold a lot of hope re: II roadshows drumming up more support - they have rarely delivered anything substantial.

I think Crispen Odey became a new II in the early part of the year (but I think he sold out at 27p) when he had to resign from his funds. 27p looked a ridiculously low price then .... he had a lucky escape!

Unless we get some unexpected news then I think we are stuck here for a while.

It doesn't seem to want to break 18p and British Bills will be recommending a SELL tonight as it's dropped below 17.44p.

Ha the only person making money at the moment is AimMaster who seems to be able to scalp a few % points as we bounce around in the 17s.

I do think though that our patience will be rewarded ... I just don't know when 😁

@Nooby

Schroders buying back pretty much what they sold at the start of August .....

@Xenor

I totally agree - let's get to 20p first - I seem to remember plenty of people here predicting we'd be back over 20p by the end of September... well I know we've got a few days left .....but that prediction is looking pretty lame at the moment.

Nice to see Schroders buying back the shares they sold in August though ..... that was another wrong prediction by the doomsayers who suggested Schroders were selling up!

@RA11

It's probably unwise to try and predict a bottom in a share but, historically, CPI has never traded below 20p until now.

A lot of people have lost a lot of money over the last 5 years buying CPI shares (as the price plummeted) and the MMs haven't forgiven CPI for that loss and the share is unloved.

IMO - CPI is really a dividend stock that currently isn't paying a dividend! It runs big government multi-year contracts and creates huge quantities of revenue. But are those contracts profitable? CPI say they are - MM aren't so sure and want more evidence!

Looking at the last set of number and what IR stated afterwards - those contracts do look profitable and the size of contracts being awarded to CPI is growing not least a half billion pound contract confirmed last week.

There are still some headwinds in the H2 2023 results (due to be announced in March 2024) as exceptional items are likely to affect short term profitability again (as was the case in H1 2023 results).

So - if the exceptional costs are below MM expectation or if the underlying profits are higher .... we can expect this to head towards 50p in March 2024.

If H2 2023 results are as expected then we are going to need to wait until August 2024 for the H1 2024 results before we head to 50p.

Of course - any talk of resuming dividends is going to make this rocket.

As for £1? I would like to conquer 50p first but with solid growth, profitability, new CEO and dividend .....no reason that this shouldn't be trading at £1 in 2025.

That's my view and I'm happy to hold into 2025 because if I'm right then I'm going to see 5 X my investment

If I'm wrong - I can't see these shares being lower than they are now in 2025 as I firmly believe CPI won't go bust!