Member Info for Trenners

@DDD

I always find your posts really insightful ....

For me - AH needs to cut the middle management fat and get this dinosaur of a business (that's been run like a Government Dept by JL) to think and operate like a private sector company (which is what it is).

Many moons ago I was working at BT and they had the same problem (post privatisation) where the employees couldn't understand they were private sector employees and not public sector.

It's going to take time to instil that into the workforce but aggressive cost cutting in the mid / senior management level will not only save the company a fortune it will also make future decision making much more dynamic.

I suspect - right now - AH will feel like he is wading through treacle trying to get things done at Capita having previously worked at Amazon.

But I do think he's up to the job - I do think the fat trimming will lead us back to profitability and I think AI is the cherry on th cake ....

Before we get to the AI cherry - let's get the cake baked and iced!

That's why I've invested in Capita!

@JG68

My concern is whether I'll live long enough to see a return on my CPI investment .....or whether my coffin will be lined with old CPI share certificates as I am pushed into the furnace!

I don't think this is going to move very much any time soon ... Too many punters on the sidelines looking for a quick 10% and too many IIs adjusting their books as year end approaches

If there is a positive - 13p seems to be holding (for now)

@Savage

I can't see how either of those events will send Capita back into the 12s given we've already been driven so low by irrational sellers.

13.63p is the key area now - if we can break that then we should move upwards - possibly into the 14s

@Kamyk

I'm holding with you and am a shade under 45% down on a VERY large holding! I've been adding recently (when I probably shouldn't have) but I do have faith in AH.

I think AH will be able to cut costs and increase margins sufficiently to start making profit on the £3billion/year turnover.

If AH succeeds then the sky is the limit and you would expect 3 or 4 or 5 or 6 times increase in the share price from here ... Probably over a 24 / 36 month period

However .... If he doesn't succeed then not only will I lose a substantial amount of money (like you I suspect) but AH will also have a pile of unvested stock options as well as losing £100k (so far) of his own money.

Let's hope he succeeds - I can't see any reason why he won't!

@Trisor

I hope the background seller (that has pushed this so low) has now sold and we have, indeed, bottomed.

My concern is that we have substantively bounced which means that seller could still be hanging around.

One thing is for sure - anyone buying for the first time at 13p is getting a bargain as long as they are prepared to wait a few days / weeks / months or years!

Why am I so vague on the time frame - you never know when this beast of a share is going to wake up and leap forward ....it seems to happen for virtually no reason and when you least expect it!

@NoFear

So does that table suggest that Schroder have an average of 69p per share here?

I was of the view that their average was around the 45p area?

If it's 69p average for 19% of the company then little wonder that we haven't been approached by a predator!

I don't often say this but - The Schroder average is worse than mine!

@Culley

I totally agree with your timescales and, like you, I am looking to trade 100k shares or so ... When the time is right ...

You'll know when I've executed my trade as the SP will spike upwards for a few days after I've sold ... I'm just that lucky😁

Anyone in at 13.3p has surely got to do well with this share as most lth are somewhere over 23.3p or even 33.3p

However - without any news - there is little hope of a big bounce from here ....

Capital Markets day is June 13th - so that is the next scheduled news event - and results (albeit expected to be poor again) are due in August.

We may well bounce a little towards June 13th but we are also just as likely to suffer another punishment beating when the results are announced in August.

What should be an investment in a well known company that is on the road to recovery has turned into very short term - highly volatile - SP price movements.

My advice - if you can scalp a few thousand pounds from your 13.3p gamble - you'd be wise to take it - as I can see this bouncing between 12p and 16p for the foreseeable future (unless we get unexpected news)

@Trisor

I remember Evil Knevil shouting that Capita was a bargain at anything under 40p and I'm always thought a Capita purchase in the 20s was an absolute steal!

I guess that explains my high average😁

But it is staggering that a business with a household name - turning over £3billion /year of solid revenue was only worth about £220million yesterday morning!

How on earth did we fall this far? I know we deserved the punishment beating (from 26p down to 16p) last summer but I don't think very much different (in terms of numbers) was announced in the latest results (ie no surprises) but then we've taken another punishment beating.

I've been averaging down again but I've got way way way WAY too many of these shares now and I'm going to have to start reducing my short term holdings at about 17 / 18p - if we ever get there - due to my massive exposure here.

It's counter intuitive (to me) to be selling so low - but the last 7 months show how volatile this share has become and I think you need to be taking some risk (and try and trade it) if you are ever likely to turn a profit any time soon!

@NoFear

I think everyone is shell shocked by the continued decline in the SP ..... I'm just hoping that the Capital Day has turned the tide .... but I'm not holding my breath (just too many loss making CPI shares 😂)

@Trisor

20p is way below my average too ... And it's sure to be rejected by Schroder (and me and you 😁) ....

That is the problem - Schroder aren't going to sell this at a bargain basement 60% loss - so no point the predators getting excited ....

Two hopes here at the moment - Bob Hope and No Hope

Let's hope the AH presentation today can shift the dial upwards!

@gotoutjustintime

The value I see is that the revenue streams are growing and the potential bidders for future government contracts are diminishing (especially with Fujitsu out of the picture).

Even a 3% margin on £3 billion sales creates a £90 million profit which would support a share price 3 or 4 or even 5 times current level.

So - the challenge is not revenue generation on future sales - it's a streamlining / Costa cutting problem to create profit from the contracts already won.

The most recent contact win (for £220m) is now equal to the total value of the company - that can't be right - there must be value here ....

Unfortunately the market doesn't seem to agree with my analysis

@JG68

Absolutely on the Titanic - strike up the JG68 / Trisor / Trenners band.

I agree - this must be an II selling at any price before year end - I can't see how PIs would be selling at all time lows although there will be a constant turnover of traders (who bought at 16, sold at 15, bought at 14, sold at 13) but that shouldn't be enough to drive the price this low.

@Trisor

20p? The only thing that might save us is that Schroder have a 46pish average and own 19% of the company.

Maybe the Schroder holding is stopping the predator attacks as they know anything south of 46p probably won't be accepted and they don't value the company at 46p!

@JG68

Yes - I've been faithful here for a long time too and I'm beginning to fear the worst too - why can't anyone see value at these levels (other than us).

I just don't get what we are missing (other than our money) - I think it's a bit late in the day to think about bailing now ... If this goes the way of Carrillion or Cineworld or Marconi then I'll joint you and Adolfo on the bridge (saluting) as the ship goes down!

So - surely the RNS means - that if AH sells any shares when then SP is less than 19.81p then he will be accepting less in cash than had he stated at Amazon and enjoyed his options there ..

So I think this boxes well for the future share price....

And for those who think the share incentives are daylight robbery (or words to that affect) .... If AH manages to turn this beast into profit (when JL couldn't after 5 years) and manages to reintroduce the dividend .... He's worth EVERY PENNY.

And if he drives the company into the ground and it goes bust - he will have a huge quantity of shares worth 0p ...

So the executive summary is that AH has got some serious SERIOUS skin in the game now .... And we should all be grateful for that!

@Trisor

I don't think it will go bust with revenues at £3bn a year but it does need to cut fat and create profit ..... Which is part of AHs plan.

I'm in this very deep too and it would be the mother of all tax deductible Capital Losses for me - if it went bust.

However - the City doesn't seem to have the same faith as you and I and are driving the price down accordingly.

Just got to sit tight and look for opportunities to reduce exposure here when the price is right!

@Trisor

I think this is happening because the market are pricing in the possibility of CPI going bust - something unlikely to happen over at Unilever.

It looks like the market are still in firm control of the CPI share price (very much like after August results) and we've just got to be ever more patient.

I've given up trying to predict what happens next with the CPU share price - because whatever I tend to predict seems to be the opposite of what actually happens!

Perhaps I should predict a 12p share price in the hope that the SP will start to rise back up instead! 😁

@Culley

Are you sure your middle name isn't Lucky?

SP in freefall again 😁

This feels like it's being held back (to mop up any sellers who want to exit at a low price) but the market doesn't want to sell any of these cheap shares to buyers yet.

It took me quite a few attempts to buy £6,000 worth of shares - I even tried setting a limit order at 14p to see if that would get executed (it didn't) - in the end I did manage to pick some more up at 13.83p but it was quite a struggle

Anyone else having trouble buying?

This may bode well for an imminent bounce but then I've been saying that since 18p!