Member Info for Trenners

@Trisor

The issue re: a bid is that long term IIs (like Schroder) are sat on 19% at circa 69p per share so anything lower than that (plus a premium for their patience) would have been turned down.

I don't think this share gets into bid territory until the SP is north of 50p ... PE were never going to be able to pick up this company on the cheap!

I think we need to factor in the SIGNIFICANT AH and team premium when we try and put a valuation on Capita and, for me, 40p is a valuation when JL was running the semi sinking ship

With AH at the helm and with the introduction of AI based solutions and the reduction of debt to nearly zero - and based on the fact that CPI was £1.70 just before the pandemic - I would have thought somewhere around 70p / 80p is where we should be (in short order too perhaps) as long as we can show FCF now.

I don't think an SP of £1 or even £1.50 can be ruled out over the next couple of years if all the dominoes fall into place .

This might have been a stock market BLIND SPOT last week but I think it's in plain sight now!

@JG68 - don't forget we also get a £4m dividend so we got £211m really;

Ha I guessed 18p by the end of the week yesterday and I think I'm going to need to revise that to 21p by the end of the week now! Ha

These are the sort of days when the £50 scalpers (who sold yesterday( were wishing they were long term holders today.

It's time in the market .... Not timing the market (which is almost impossible to do anyway(

Feeling as though the long wait is finally at the beginning of the end!

Would be nice to see this go into auction a few times to give us some quick leg ups into the 20s ...

There can't be that many shares around to buy, surely, with the day traders cashing in at 15p?

Well when I suggested 16p by the end of this week (I wrote that yesterday on here) ... I thought I was being cautiously optimistic.....

However ... Skipping through the TA resistance at 15.34p shows, to me, that this rally has some way to go yet ...

So ... I'll we wildly optimistic now and suggest 18p by the end of the week ... Although I think the TA chart suggests somewhere around 20.5p maybe achievable...

What a turn around .... Who said we shouldn't vote Labour (I'm out of the UK so didn't vote for anyone btw) 😁

It's often harder to know when to sell ... Than when to buy ... Which leads me to believe that selling in tranches is definitely the way to go .....

If you look at the last few trading sessions - Capita has not been that influenced by movement (either up or down) from the wider market.

Volume was pretty good on Friday and this stock looks to have momentum right now. Technical Analysis says 15.34p is a key resistance point and if we cut through that then we really have a rally on our hands!

It may hover between 15 and 15.34 for a while but I just have a feeling this is back in an uptrend and we should be in the 16s by this time next week ...

The analyst video and the uncertainty re: UK election have been the positive catalysts here I think

@Aim - Ha - the long term holder is very often the short term traders whose short term trade didn't work out.

NoFear springs to mind who ramped and ramped into the low 40s here to then bale out. The only purpose of the ramp was so he could exit his previously (bad) trade which he had earlier placed in the 40s.

For me - Capita has looked undervalued for some time and many professional investors (eg Evil Knevil - Simon Cawkwell - the master investor) has been explaining why Capita at less than 40p is the bargain of the century for years now.

The share has historically been volatile but I'm hopeful this volatility will subside as management begin to deliver on their promises.

However a sensible buying approach (for any stock really) is pound cost averaging where you buy a small tranche of stock every month or so ...

A sensible selling approach here (already demonstrated by Aim) is to also sell in tranches thereby securing profit.

For me - I plan on selling 5% (of my almost million shares holding) every time the share moves up and then retraces a little. So - as we cross 20p - assuming no huge upwards momentum - I would sell 5% and then either buy back lower or wait until 25p to sell 5% more .....

With that strategy - sometimes I'll buy back and scalp a few extra shares and at other times I'd bank a profit!

Hope that helps

@Bobsto12 ... It depends on your time frame (whether to continue buying over 15p).

There are a lot of extremely short term traders (who post on here) that are happy to buy and sell multiple times a day / week - if they can see a £50 profit or more! These people are known as "scalpers".

There are also quite a few of us long term holders (LTHs) that have been accumulating and holding CPI for years (I first bought CPI during COVID in 2020).

Also Institutional Investors (IIs) have been accumulating and holding CPI for years and years - far longer than me - companies like Schroders that still own 19% of CPI at around 69p average.

So, if you want to make a quick £50 then you will probably sell at 15p and join the scalpers.

If you are looking at the decision from a LTHs perspective then these shares have never traded as low and - only 12 months ago - we double where we are now ... and only 36 months ago were triple! So if you join the LTHs then you'll continue adding as 15p is a bargain!

The IIs tend to buy and hold forever! I suspect that long after the LTHs have sold for 40p or 50p or even 60p - the IIs will be holding and selling at £1.50 or £2 or even £2.50.

So - selling at 15p gets you £50, LTHs will probably start selling in the 30 / 40 / 50p range and IIs much higher still.

At the end of the day I guess it's your timescales..

Finally - I know this share well and when she moves .... She moves (up and down) very quickly and usually for days upon end (irrespective of what the broader market is doing).

Technical Analysis suggests if we see more forward momentum this week and we push through the 15s then 20p should come soon.

Hope those thoughts help you make a decision.

I'm a LTH by the way and I still think 15p is a bargain!

@Bubbles

Ha - what you mean is that FORTUNATELY at the moment you've only got 316k shares ..... In that, right now, my capital loss is much bigger than yours (not bragging).

Just got to keep the faith as these were trading at £1.70 pre COVID - they were trading at 50p in August 2021 and 44p in March 2023 too ....

I remember selling a few at 35p in the depths of COVID before the vaccine came along .

All to play for now over the next couple of years ....

Well I'm at 841k shares now with a 23p average - I keep saying I wont buy anymore .... Then end up buying more 😁

Hopefully a turning point here now with a gradual rise into August results....

Nice to see a respected investor - Rockwood - give Capita the thumbs up and confirming what many of us already thought (that Capita is a good investment and not a busted flush).

I said I wasn't going to buy anymore - but changed my mind - and added 41,000 more this morning.

Feeling positive today again!

"Company needs new revenue" - can't fail to agree with that comment but EQUALLY "Company needs profit from existing, very substantial, revenue".

So - if company can cut costs and generate profit then the importance of new revenue is less important.

It's been like watching paint dry over the last few months as the share price continues to languish in the 13s and 14s.

I see we haven't announced any new contract wins for some time (and I do hope we are winning new business and just failing to announce it) ....

All eyes now towards the August results .... And if they don't come in better than expected (quite likely based on previous disappointments) then ... It will be that long wait until March 2025 results again ....

Nothing from the ICO regarding the hack (which hit the share price so hard) ....

I'm just struggling to see what is going to start shifting the dial on this before August 2025?

I'm still very very long in this (too long actually) and could do with a little bit of optimism (and see the share price back in the 15s and 16s again).

Anyone else getting impatient?

Yes Death Cross but probably to be taken with a pinch of salt as it was triple witching on Friday too ...

Quite a few stocks plunged going into the close because of the triple witch

@Savage - I know we are both fans of BT and have seen the share price rise by about 40% despite all the noise and the doomsayers.

I don't understand though why you are so negative with CPI?

A business that is moving towards digital transformation / AI services (with a proven CEO) and a war chest of recurring revenue (between £2.6bn - £3bn per annum) to stabilise and fund the business during implementation would seem to be a good story to buy into?

Limited debt .... And a bargain basement SP makes it, imo, a better proposition than even BT (which probably could double from its current SP ... Whereas CPI could easily quadruple or more).

My advice - for what it's worth - is to start pound cost averaging CPI .. I think you'll find it will turn out to be even a better investment than our beloved BT

@JG68

Ha - if it makes you feel any better - I'm £75k down here with a 800k holding .... So I need mid 23s to break even .... Which, historically, is a fantastic fantastic average.

Lots of "Jonny come latelys" on here with super low, sub 18p (or even sub 15p) averages that will cash in as soon as they cross their break even

I hadn't planned to hold more CPI shares than AH (for the time being until his first tranche vests) ... But having held these since 2022 (when they were well above 30p) .... I have no intention of cashing out for break even.

Capita shares at 14p each after last week's Capital Markets Day is astonishing....

@JG68

I'm massively under water here but feel optimistic. I'm bed and ISAing as many CPI shares I can at these low levels to both create some Capital losses (to cushion myself against a greedy Labour government inbound) and get shares in a tax free wrapper ...

When this share moves .... She really moves .... Often for no obvious reason .....so I remain patient .....

At least - today - I'd rather be invested in CPI than OCDO!

@Culley

A lot to look forward to here (although I've been saying that for the last couple of years) and I think the Capital Markets Day was a success but, to date, it's not reflected in the SP.

I hope - over the next couple of weeks - we get some more director purchases, a few upgraded assessments from analysts .... And an SP that is heading towards the 16s rather than back towards the 13s

I don't understand how such a good presentation hasn't moved the SP up .... I don't mean back to the 20s or 30a (as that's going to require profit to return) ... But surely an SP in the range 16 - 19p would support that presentation and vision.

The market is forward looking so we need them to start looking forward now ... Rather than dwelling on disappointments of the past!