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I'm sat on the CPI bus ... And we passed the 18p bus stop an hour or so ago .... Poor @NoFear .... Missed the bus again!

@James - a fantastic summary and thanks for the mention 😁

The reason, imo, why £2.5billion "vanity" revenue is important is that it's something that most businesses crave (revenue from customers) and means that if AH can introduce cost saving measures (redundancies) and process efficiency (AI) then that vanity readily creates PROFIT.

It's a nice problem to have. I think it's easier to turn around a business to profit with £2.5bn revenue than having to start from scratch and try and win new customers at 3% or 4% or 5% or 6% margin.

As I've said before - I'd be quite happy for Capita to turnover only £2bn (or even less) as long as profit is UP.

I also think a smart RNS announcing that Capita will be debt free after the Capita Ones money will have a positive impact on the SP ... And assuming it doesn't overshoot ... It should be able to hold, roughly, the new level (whatever they becomes)

In danger of answering my own question. .....

The 12.35p per share for Capita One surely can't be totally baked into the share price because, if it was, then it only values the rest of Capita at 5.49p per share (17.84 - 12.35).

I've assumed the total 12.35p will be used to reduce debt and strengthen the balance sheet.

A business almost, if not totally, debt free turning over £2.5billion pounds valued at £93 million just feels wrong.

I'm not expecting a massive leap when the £210m is banked but I would have thought a rally of between 5p and 8p would make sense from where we are ...

That sort of SP leap would also line up with the TA and the Fibanaci predictions of somewhere around 23p - 28p by end of the month.

Of course - if we don't get the cash until Friday 30/08 then we won't see an RNS until early September ....

Time will tell I guess!

So over the next couple of weeks we will be getting the Capita One payment which equates to about 12.35p per share.

When the deal was announced in July - the SP rose by a few points but has subsequently declined again.

So how much of that 12.35p is baked into the current SP?

Are we expecting another mini rally to celebrate the arrival of the money on the basis that if the deal was to collapse then I assume the SP would fall.

Thoughts?

@Kipper - I think it's all about persuading the herd that a quick profit can be made ....and it's therefore safe to invest ... And once the herd starts a stampede then others follow.

I think the share is defined being held down at the moment and you can see it, occasionally, starting to rise quickly only for it to be brought back down again.

Some think it's a background buyer, others a background seller / shorter trying to exit ....

Whatever is causing it is holding us at 18p until they've finished their games

@Capitalizer - I'd be astounded if you didn't make an excellent return on shares bought between 15p and 18p in the last week or so .....

I remember when sub 30p was considered a bargain and the company was in a lot worse state than it is today .

I am hoping that the arrival of the monies from Capita One together with new wins that are AI centric will significantly lift the SP in the coming weeks.

AH and Pablo are no fools - it's fabulous that they've both put their own money on the line by buying significant numbers of shares.

Just need more patience now and I'm convinced all will turn out well ....

@NF - you should have bought when they dropped it ... Maybe too late now as that horse has bolted off again ..

It's really frustrating how this share gets manipulated

@NF - I'm not sure if it's weakness that's making it fall or whether it's being played .... Did you notice the barrage of 135k sells that hit when it nearer 18p ... They seemed to be timed to push the share price lower ....

I've felt this has been wanting to rise all week - not least today when there were early buyers at the 18.5p range.

With Dow futures up - might this not be the time to take a few before an afternoon rebound to the mid 18s?

@Aim - today's finish must be good news! I felt it's been being held back all day.

I think British Bulls will also switch from SHORT to BUY as we closed over 18.10p with a Bullish Homing Pigeon signalled.

Hoping for good things over the next few sessions ...

@Trisor - it is just irritating that Savage comes to this board and posts nonsense that may frighten some investors in selling their Capita investment unjustifiably.

I think you are right though - it's a waste of my time writing to someone who isn't invested in Capita and only ever wants to talk the share down.

I shall ignore his mad ramblings in the future

@Savage - my point is that the investment in AI is from cost savings ....

You were suggesting that we would need to sell more assets / divisions to fund AI investment and this is simply not true!

Would you like to share with us the documents that state that AH has big plans to spend money on AI development?

At the last presentation he suggested that some of the cost savings will be used to broaden the AI offerings ...

AH also stated that some non strategic divisions are being 'managed for value' which I understand to mean that he will sell them at the right time for the right price.

I do wish you would stop posting nonsense on this board ..

@Aim - why does it feel like background accumulation?

Helen Parris isn't totally old guard .... You've got to go back to the 'less than efficient' Stuart Morgan for the old guard ... He makes Helen Parris look dynamic!

My issue with IR is why do we need two of them? Helen Parris and Stephanie 'whateverhernameis'. Surely one person can do the IR job ...

So fire one person or fire both of them and replace with one person and we immediately become more cost effective and more efficient!

@PJT12 - I totally agree that it's early days for any PE interest and the board finally need to focus on turning around this beast and demonstrating this to the markets.

An uplift in SP and PE interest will then follow

The issue with PE is at least 2 fold :-

1. Schroders (that hold 19% of CPI) have an average purchase price of between 46p and 69p (depending on who you believe) - so that makes a lowball offer from PE difficult / almost impossible.

2. Until very recently (since AH took over actually) - it has been pretty difficult to see whether this is a massively undervalued business (my hope) or a complete basket case which only turns a profit when they sell off more divisions.

It reminds me of an old joke 'my dad used to sell kitchen furniture and when the kitchen was empty he started selling lounge furniture'.

3. Although CPI has a good revenue stream - it's quite likely that a lot of those revenue generating contracts are at thin profit margins. AH is sorting this out but it's going to take time.

So ... a few reasons why PE may not be interested YET!

However, I wouldn't rule out an MBO by AH and his team - they are well placed to execute on that and could also roll over the Schroder equity stake (thereby overcoming the first problem).

Just my Sunday morning ramblings ....

@JamesOxford - thanks for your reply which I broadly agree with ....

The start of this thread is entitled Conspiracy Theory and I also questioned why COO and CTO haven't purchased shares yet.

I am assuming either they aren't able to purchase right now because they are working on market sensitive stuff or they will imminently purchase and the Director purchases are being project managed to create maximum upward momentum on the SP.

It's clear under the old guard of Lewis and Weller - they were hopeless at communication and never really considered the shareholders (as long as they continued to get paid their over inflated salaries).

The old guard is now gone and the communication between company and shareholder is already a million times better.

I would be astounded if the COO and CTO didn't buy shares in the coming days .... Unless something else is afoot .. hence the conspiracy theory.

FYI - I have made a very significant investment in Capita (to the upper levels of what you usually invest) as I think AH and his team are a class act ... And class acts are usually successful at what they do ....

I'm pretty sure time will show that Capita can be turned around into a leaner business that delivers good margins and dividends... And AH will be rewarded with his 12.5 million stock options (that may well vest at £1 a share if he attains these goals)

@Simpiles - as per the RNS dates 10/05 - 2.5 million shares were due to vest on 15/7 and there are further vestments (for just over or just under) of 2 million shares every 6 months (15th January and 15th July) for a couple of years.

These stock vestments were to compensate AH for the options he lost when he left Amazon to join Capita.

I assume - because the vestment on 15/07 was in a closed period - the earliest they could be vested was directly after results (which explains why they have appeared this week).

It was good fortune to vest on a day that the stock market had a panic attack as that would have saved him quite a bit in payable NI and tax as the strike price was lower than expected last Monday.

@JamesOxford - I agree that the share price rise (above the 200 EMA) was caused by Directors buying or vesting stock - always a good sign if directors want significant 'skin in the game' - Jon Lewis and Tim Weller hardly bought any and didn't seem to care.

I would be interested to know what you would do - with your 30 years city experience - James Oxford - if you suddenly became CEO of Capita.

If it were me, without my 30 years experience, I would shore up the balance sheet, cut costs, reduce debt, increase margins .... and I'd be happy to sacrifice a bit of short term revenue growth to achieve those things .

The above is exactly what AH and his team are doing and I am convinced this is going to be the strong medicine that Capita has needed to not only survive but thrive.

Over the last few years - I do agree that the share price has been a traders dream and a bit of a play thing for the MM but I also think that it all about to change as the investor community wake up to the opportunity that Capita offers

And I think that once this share starts moving UP .... It's going to take a heck of a lot to stop it .... It was once the darling of the FTSE and there is no reason why it shouldn't achieve darling status again with a Labour Government desperate to create growth and improve productivity in Government departments

.... I say upfront I've got absolutely NOTHING to base this on .... but the RNS today (of the CFO buying 1.2 million shares before being appointed a director TOMORROW) felt a little odd to me.

Why announce the purchase today? Why purchase them ahead of joining (as he had already purchased 650k shares earlier in the year)? Why not wait until being appointed CFO before buying / announcing the purchase of the shares?

Why haven't the COO or CTO bought any shares since results?

CEO pays cash for the tax and NI portion of his 2.5 million vested shares (which he is quite within his rights to do) so that he doesn't have to sell half to clear the tax bill ....

What I'm guessing ... And it is only a GUESS ... is that if something was brewing in the background -perhaps the sale of another managed for value division or even something more tasty (don't mention PE - Pike!) .... then the above actions wouldn't compromise director share dealing rules ....

It's just a thought ... It's just a feeling ....it just felt ODD to announce the CFO purchase today whilst he is still CFO designate rather than tomorrow ....