Member Info for Trenners

MAYBE ... The CMA are investigating MRI Software because after the acquisition of Capita One, they are now anti competitive and MRI Software may need to take some action to allow competition.

In other words - this doesn't affect Capita per se

This was cleared over 3 months ago ... We waited on secretary of state clearance before the deal could be concluded.

No idea what's going on now .... Given we've made the sale and it's been approved by government and the money is in our bank account!

@JO - historically you would have expected some good results and some free cash flow and possibly a dividend would be needed to get this moving ... I'm not so convinced now that we will need to wait that long ....

I think you (and the market) are underestimating the influence of AI solutions and specifically the new AI product strategy (in partnership with the hyperscalers) that Adolfo has now implemented.

It was interesting to see that when the PM mentioned AI in the House of Commons (just before the budget) the Capita share price jumped by about almost 7%.

I am firmly of the belief that a few high profile AI wins (that prove the new strategy is working) together with a trading update that shows margins are continuing to improve will.be enough to kick start this.

I remember from the Yellowstone Q and A where Adolfo said that everyone who had seen their new GenAI product wanted to buy it ... and assuming that's true ... Then we should see some very positive PR and Sales around the AI product set very very soon.

These products and partnerships with the hyperscalers are key and the market will quickly wake up to the opportunity here when significant sales start to land.

@Savage - you do post nonsense!

There are too many clever technologists running this company now and failure is not an option ... They've too much personal skin the game ....

Surely even you can see that a company that's creating Generative AI solutions at the very moment that the world (and the UK Government) are looking to AI for productivity solutions ....is likely to be in the right place at the right time

It's a shame BT weren't a bit more fleet of foot (rather than forever plodding) as AI could have been a great strategy for them too!

I've sold out of BT to add here ..... BT might double over the next few years .... or they might just keep plodding on ... But this share has the potential to 5 or even ten fold in the next 5 years ....

I know it won't convince you ... but you should reflect because you know I'm talking sense!

@Adam - agreed - lots of mistakes in the past but we seem to be on the right tracks now ....

If you cast you mind back to August / September 2021 when we hit 55p a share .... With the business floundering without strategy .... 60p should be easy money now that we are being led by these dynamic, ex Amazon, technologists.

Bottom line for me is ... Historically ... Capita has been a run of the mill laggard, Government focused, business ..... Run by laggards for laggards!

Now it's getting a new lease of life and dynamism from some pretty clever technology savvy and SUCCESSFUL entrepreneurs.... and we are becoming cutting edge.

Business failure is not an option - these guys wouldn't have given up all that success at Amazon (or the Amazon stock options) to come here to fail ....

This business will be totally transformed over the next year or two .... and the share price will respond accordingly ....

@JO - I agree that the current ceiling for the SP is probably towards the upper end of 21.x - but with news events getting ever closer and talk of AI getting ever louder - I don't expect this to be under 22p for very long.

Yes - I know I'm bullish on CPI and I think things (over the last 4.5 years) have never looked as good which is why I'm still adding.

The thing about CPI is she moves very quickly (up or down) without a great deal of prior notice .... 19p is just too cheap to ignore when we consider all the "known knowns".

I've just added about 32k shares bringing my holding back to 1.13 million .....

I can't see this staying under 20p for long again now and with so much more chatter of AI, trading update due in December (expected to be good) and - hopefully - an imminent announcement of a contract win (as mentioned in the Yellowstone Q&A session) ... The risk/reward looks good.

@Aim / @JO - Yes I'd be more than willing to add here although my 1.5milliob share ownership days are almost certainly behind me

We are stood on the cusp of something transformational here and I've been waiting on that cusp since the depths of COVID (in May 2020) when I bought my first CPI shares

Everything is aligning here .....

@Aim - I agree things look much more stable here now and with large Government spending with AI on the horizon (just look how the SP took off when that was mentioned just before the budget) .... I don't think it will be long until we see 20p / 21p again ....

I've just added another 52,000 too

@Aim - absolutely feel comfortable now and if I've got any non ISA shares left when April 6th arrives then I'll bed and ISA some of those ...

I'd also add - as stated at the time - that part of my decision to sell 500k was based on remarks made by both JO and yourself on this board.

You call of double top was spot on (but just a little early as I think you were calling it at around 20.3p whereas the top was around 21.8p) .... and JO reminding us all what a good run we had all enjoyed definitely encouraged me to sell more shares last Friday.

I know others couldn't understand why I hadn't sold everything but I hope my previous post explains the reasons why now.

I also agree with @JO in that if this continues to drop to a ridiculous price (eg: 17p) then I will add a few more ... But my days of holding 1.5million shares are definitely gone!

@Aim - if I was only holding 100,000 or even 200,000 shares then the temptation to react to short term SP movements (and make short term buy and sell decisions) would be huge. It's not so easy to do this with 1.5 million shares of which 800k are held in an ISA for the longer term.

So I reduced the non ISA holdings by almost 500k to bank some profit. I didn't want to mess with the ISA holdings as I've got at least a 50p target for these shares and I want to enjoy the SP surge, tax free, when it eventually happens).

My IFA sold his 650k non ISA shares and holds 250k for the longer term right now but I think his decision was to crystallise some gains in case the CGT rate rises in the budget. So bank the profit now at a lower tax rate.

There was no benefit in me crystallising gains within the ISA which is why I left them in situ. OK - I could have sold out completely and banked all the profit but then I might have missed the SP surge ....

I could, in theory, buy back the 500k non ISA shares I sold and make a nice profit but I never set out to hold any of these shares (outside an ISA) so I'm not that compelled to.buy them back right now.

Besides - I sleep little easier with only 1 million CPI shares rather than the outrageous 1.5 million (which is nearly as many as the CFO is holding).

In summary - easy and tempting to trade small quantities of shares - more risky / less tempting to trade large quantities - which is why I guess Schroders are still holding!

@Aim - I sold nearly 500k shares last week at an average of about 21.25p - leaving me just under a million shares at that time.

I bought 55,000 shares back at 20.11 earlier in the week (to take me back over the million) but I have sat on the sidelines since.

I feel much less exposed here now and am not really compelled to do anything for the time being.

It's not clear (to me) what's causing such a sharp pullback. I see Qube have increased their short but I'd be surprised if Schroders are selling given they were so bullish last week.

I think - from a company news perspective - the further recruitment of senior ex AWS employees bodes very well and it wouldn't surprise me to see this rally upwards again - perhaps after the budget / US election.

In the meanwhile - 800,000 of my shares remain tucked away in an ISA away from Rachel Reeves !

@Aim - I agree market sentiment doesn't look good and we've a few headwinds with the budget and then the US election BUT ....

Capita hasn't looked so strong for quite a while - sustained buying last week and, as expected, we got a small retrace this week BUT ....

Surely the market are going to start to notice the influx of senior ex AWS employees here soon and the transformation that these dynamic technologists are going to make to this sleeping (laggard) business previously run by Job Lewis ....

This looks like it's getting ready to explode ...

AWS employees are not fools and are always well rewarded - their choice to leave and move into Capita should not be underestimated and their impact will be significant.

Really good to see that Adolfo is attracting talent from Amazon Web Services - that really bodes very well here ...

I bought back some of the shares I sold last week this afternoon and I'm hopeful the worst is now behind us ...

But if not ....I'll keep adding ...

I'm now back in the million shareholders club again with no regret whatsoever ...

I see that all the mongers of doom are back on here this week now that the SP is falling again ... Adam Woodman, Savage, Simon P etc ...

It was so much better here last week without those clowns ...

Anyone know what's happened to GOCPI ... he doesn't seem to have posted for ages?

@Briomtree - tbh I wasn't planning on selling anymore today but I thought 21.81p was too good to miss and I only sold 10% of my total holding.

I'm still massively positive on Capita and totally believe this is just a temporary set back but I didn't want to unload over a million shares at 21.81p (however tempting that looks now) as I would have looked pretty foolish if we had pushed ever upwards.

I've dropped from having £310,000 invested here down to £210,000 this week and,.let's be honest, £210,000 is still a very large punt on a single share.

I was also influenced by my very agreed IFA who has dumped 650k shares here this week and also some of the comments from JO and Aim seemed to ring true to me too.

Anyhow - onwards and upwards .... If we drop further on Monday I maybe tempted to buy back the shares I sold today ... but as I said - I never really planned to have £210,000 invested here so I want to tread carefully.

But be clear - no one is more supportive of Capita and the amazing transformation our CEO is undertaking

@Trisor ... Haha ... I did sell 100k at 21.815p at about 1100 this morning so feeling pretty pleased with myself at the moment.

The fact JO/Aim were suggesting a retrace and that my financial adviser had sold 650k shares this week influenced me to bank a bit more profit.

Still holding a smidge under a million though ...

@JO / Aim - in fear of being called a bed wetter .. I think that JO and Aim are talking wise words re: Capita.

If Employer NI takes a hammering on 30/10 then that's got to be bad for Capita.

We've had a good run from 15p upto nearly 22p in less than 3 months and this may well continue rising for a bit ... but I can't also help feeling a pullback is due.

Capita likes to rally on consecutive days (and we've had those this week) so caution should be the word here.

I've just sold another 100,000 shares .... and I think I'll sell another 100,000 if we get into the 22s

This train has been stuck at the station - with a flashing red light - for years ......

Someone will be posting that they wouldn't want to be out over the weekend next!

I wish I'd never heard of this share or Matt Moulding (or his mother) and as for Lord Allen - about as useful as Ray Alan's puppet!

Gosh me again in the subject (big blush) - I've never been so popular ....

Shares never go up in a straight line and this has had a pretty good run over the last month or two (15.xp just after results in August to 21.9p being paid just before the bell today) .... especially when there hasn't been a lot of company specific news during this period (except the Yellowstone day where the SP briefly rallied and then retreated).

So you would think this would be due a retrace - if only temporarily - and not really surprised to see a few shorts opening now

My financial adviser (who had bought about a million shares alongside me in the summer) has now sold most of his expecting a pullback ....

For me ... I'm still keeping a foot in both camps .... Although if we see 23p in short order I might be tempted to make a small trade.