Member Info for Trenners

@Aim - everyone (except short term traders) that has held any position in Capita for any period of time (beyond a week or two) is almost certainly underwater here .

That doesn't mean - with hindsight - it was a bad purchase because the INVESTMENT was for the future (whereas a trader will GAMBLE for the present).

I am well well underwater here but I don't regret not selling - what's the point of incurring additional stamp duty and trading costs if the objective is a longer term outcome.

It's just a different mindset between short term traders and longer term investor .... and no one is currently losing money until they decide to sell ....

@Savage - the misinformation you were spreading was not £5bn v £5.7bn pipeline ....but that ALL the pipeline (however big) was attributed to AI ... which is clearly rubbish as Capita offer so many different services ...

Then you went on to talk about how the size of the AI market wouldn't support Capita's sales pipeline ....which even if your statistics re: size of market are true (I doubt they are) ....it's irrelevant because not ALL the pipeline is going to be AI.

I'm not shouting you down by the way ... just correcting the misinformation you post

@Savage - you seem fixated on people telling lies!

As you say - the TU mentions a £5bn pipeline as at 17/12/24 whereas £5.7bn was stated at Yellowstone on 23/09/24.

So ... I don't think anyone is telling lies ... it's just the pipeline is a different size now (than it was in September) which is hardly surprising as opportunities are added / removed as time moves forward.

Yellowstone were very positive on their view of Capita as are most people on here ...

It's only @Aim who is currently short and you .... Who seem to want to be like Fraser from Dads Army ... Constantly telling everyone they are DOOOOOOOMMMMMMEEEDDD

@Savage - before insulting me - it might be prudent to check your facts! Here is a link to the Capita presentation summary by Yellowstone: https://www.yellowstoneadvisory.com/post/capita-a-better-business-is-taking-shape

£5.7bn is the sales pipeline and NOT all of it is attributed to AI solutions (that would be a ridiculous assumption anyway given Capita offer such a diverse range of services).

I can only assume, by the rubbish you post, that you are being paid to spout such tripe. I wouldn't be so rude as to call you a liar but do are definitely misrepresenting the facts in virtually everything you post

@Savage - CPI reported a weighted pipeline of £5.7bn during Yellowstone BUT no where in that report did it state that the £5.7bn was totally AI related.

So - as usual - you are just deliberately misinterpreting the facts to suit your Capita bashing strategy.

Having a £5.7bn pipeline is fantastic news and should be celebrated not criticised ....

Dung beetles absolutely !

@Aim - I couldn't agree LESS with the @Peterr3 over on ADVFN. He seems to be stuck in the past and not fully aware of the significant changes happening at Capita.

For example - part of his amazing research suggested that middle managers were leaving Amazon to join Capita whereas we all know that some pretty senior ex Amazon executives have joined the management team.

Peterr3 also suggested that the ex Amazon employees weren't in receipt of any Amazon stock incentives (again incorrect) and he didn't see the value in them at all

A business is only as good as the people who run it (as demonstrated in a bad way by JL) but the new management team at Capita are first class.

Don't take my word for it ... Richard Staverly at Rockwood agrees too which is why his company have taken a significant stake here too

@Aim / @Savage - you really need to take another look at the strategy as outlined at Yellowstone.

Capita is, moving forward, going to PRODUCTISE their solutions - this is part of Sameer's remit (who joined in early December) - so INVENT once and sell MULTIPLE times.

This is a game changer for Capita and is the way that profits can be exponentially improved and upfront investment minimised.

In summary - we've got a new product driven strategy now which means we won't need to make huge upfront investments as we sign new business.

Your ramblings on here are so far far off from the mark .... Anyone would think you are shorting the stock and willing it to fail 😁

Happy New Year .... and next year Rodney .... Capita investors will all be ..... (well you know the rest)

@aim - we haven't invested in Capita to try and make a few pennies of chump change on a swing trade - we've invested because we believe in the medium term strategy that AH and his team have laid out.

OK - I'm happy to try and trade a few shares for a quick buck - but the bulk of my holding is in an ISA and I won't be selling any until we are multiples from here ...

I understand that I could have made loads of money shorting Capita during December but hindsight is a wonderful thing and I could equally have lost loads of money on that same trade.

You got lucky by being on the right side of the trade (even though it looked as though you had made a big error for quite a few days running upto results).

At the end of the day - I'm not using my CPI investment as gambling chips to make a quick buck - I'm waiting for the re-rate and the massive uptick in the SP.

The business and the strategy is sound and my investment will come good ....

@Adam That's great news and thanks for the information - nice to see a steady renewal of Capita contracts at a higher margin than before ....

Ignore @Savage as Capita succeeding doesn't play into his desperate wish for Capita to fail .... which it won't .... and he doesn't hold any shares anyway so it's all academic (well annoying) actually ...

@JG68 - thanks for your kind words - I don't need the money and I'm not worried.

I think all LTHs are seriously underwater here and it's only the traders and shorters who are sitting pretty right now but that will change as the CPI recovery gains traction.

@Aim - I don't need the money.... So the loss is just a figure on a spreadsheet ... I'm certainly not selling now ... Could never bring myself to press the 14p sell button (unless I was going to Bed and ISA) ...

Once the dust settles we should quickly see 17p plus again and then it's just a question of waiting for the slow grind back up to 20p again .....

I may have a large paper loss right now but I do firmly believe I'll see that money (plus plenty more) in the future.

Firstly - well done to @Aim for calling out the likely downfall of CPI (about a month ago) and then standing by that short when others (including me) believed he was on the wrong side of the trade (which he wasn't).

I'm not replying to Savage anymore as life is too short and he's no intention of ever investing here (so he's only here for the sport and winding everyone up).

If the SP had risen after the TU then I think @Aim would still be posting but I suspect @Savage would have vanished again.

Anyway - it's Xmas and it's important to be nice to each other. An awful lot of LTHs are under water here including AH and Pablo and ME - I think I have a paper loss right.now of about £80,000.

I'm not worried - and I'm sure the management team and IIs aren't worried - as I wasn't trying to trade to make some "chump change" (as James Oxford would say) but am holding on for the long term gain (as I know @GoCPI is).

This share can move very quickly (up and down) and that's always been the case and anyone in here at less than 30p who is willing to wait a year or so is going to do very well.

Market as a whole is well down this week too ... LTHs need to just sit tight as I would be astounded if this didn't breach 20p or higher again within the next few months.

AH strategy is rock solid and is backed up with significant shareholdings PURCHASED by both him and his team. Quite a novelty having Capita Directors who actually pay for their shares (rather than just having them given them).

@Savage - if customers weren't happy then revenues would be in complete freefall and penalties would be severe too.

Happy customers renew their contracts and Capita have a very high renewal ratio ... Sales volumes are a metric associated with NEW customers not existing one!

@Pedrobull - Capita are an outsourcer who, under AH and his ex Amazon technologists, are going to morph into a technology led outsourcer to ride the AI technology wave.

I think it's a sound strategy being executed by some very clever people and I have no doubt it will work and make AH and his team (and by implication Private Investors too) very wealthy. It's just a question of WHEN that wealth is created ... Not IF!

Its worth reading Sameers blog about Service as Software and now Capita can fully get exploit this opportunity.

I also note that someone (not you) suggested on here that Capita's customers hate them .... That is incorrect as KPIs measure how effective Capita are delivering their services and there are penalties for poor performance.

I think that most of Capita's customers are thrilled with the service they get .... its just that Capita have been under bidding their services (over the years) and, before AH, were busy fools in that their customers loved them but they generated no profit for all their hard work.

That is now changing!

@Trisor good TU and, surely, from 17p the movement must be back up towards the 20s.

Probably still range bound through early part of 2025 but am expecting a higher range than 17p

All good here .... Going in the right direction ... NI costs clarified too

Nice to see this performing strongly into the close ... And the rally should be enough to convince British Bulls that this is now a BUY again ...

Usually not bothered by British Bulls predications as they are wrong most of the time ... But they've been on a bit of a losing sequence recently ...

So I'm hoping their BUY rating will be correct this time around (they have historically managed to catch the previous overnight leaps in the SP) and hoping to see 20p tomorrow!

@Aim - you know I like you - but you really are on the wrong side of this trade .... just like you ignored my advice bit to short BTC at 101 USD.

I assume you got out of the BTC short unscathed (as I know you are a lucky blighter) ...but I don't think you will escape here if the results are either in line or exceeding expectation.

I remember Evil Knievil (Simon Caukhill) being ultra bullish on Capita when they were 40p explaining what an absolute bargain these were .....

Neil Woodford and Crispin Odey (for all their various sins) also saw immense value here as well as Richard from Rockwell ....

I know you've listed loads of people who are potentially shorting Capita so I am just trying to bring some balance to the debate ....

When this recovers it's going to sky rocket very very quickly .... Absolute fact ... And I'm expecting tomorrow to be the start of the bull run here ...

So many negative comments on this board - based on no news or a trader willing their short to yield dividends - is quite draining and I will be pleased when the TU is now done and dusted ... However bad or expected or good it is!

I would say though that traders betting against these ex Amazon technologists turning around Capita are going to get burned ..... If not this week .. if not in March .... then certainly by August 2025.

Smart people do not leave very good, and lucrative, jobs ay Amazon to start working at a failing Capita.

The strategy and technological experience they bring is

both proven and first class. Bet against them at your peril!

Finally - all this noise about falling revenue - is just noise.

Of course revenues are going to fall at Capita because a) we sold off Capita One at 10 x earnings thereby knocking a massive hole in the debt and b) we are only seeking to win business now that improves bottom line profitability.

As long as this business is turning a profit then all investors will be rewarded .... and a profit this business WILL achieve because their are too many directors with millions of shares which will be worthless if they fail AND these same directors have accepted these shares in recompense for leaving a very lucrative Amazon employee share scheme

In summary - our management team are not idiots .... The fools in all this are those who choose to bet against them!

@Aim - £12m NI costs (if they are going to be that much - which I doubt) won't have any impact until after April 2025 so have zero impact on the trading update

Reduced revenue is to be expected (not least because of the Capita One disposal) but my eyes are going to be on overall profitability. A £2.4bn company generating 6% profit (£144m) is better than a £2.6bn company generating 5% profit (£130m).

The point is that the vanity years of winning low profit business to boost revenues is over .... it's all about the margin now!

Also a £5.7bn pipeline gives us plenty of opportunity to add profitable revenue as we move forward.

So, overall, nothing negative to see here ... Move along the bus

@GoCPI - just a little frustrating that we seem to be stuck in the low 17s as trading update approaches. I was really hopeful that we could get nearer to 19p before the big day ...