Member Info for Trenners

@Trisor - although they are pretty much all showing as sells - the transaction prices would actually suggest otherwise......

It will be interesting to see where we go when the A trades begin again ...

Something going on here? Massive spreads all day and no A trades at all ..... never seen that before .....

Hopefully it squeezes us higher ....

@Crowman - I agree the licence fee needs reforming as it's not fit for purpose anymore and that looks like another Capita contract lost.

Historically - Capita have relied on big contracts (often requiring massive upfront investment) to generate their revenue streams .....but I do honestly think that's going to all change under AH as we move to much smaller contracts, with minimal upfront investment and much higher profit ...

I think we are already seeing this with Wrexham Council Property Management solutions and also a smaller contract from Lancashire Council this week

So we can probably expect few RNS contract wins and our sales reporting will therefore hinge on the trading updates etc ...

Capita's customer base will, ultimately, be a basket full of smaller eggs rather than one or two very large Ostrich eggs.

To be fair - the whole AI productisation strategy always indicates lots of small wins at high margin rather than a small number of high vanity (revenue) deals at lower margins.

@Aim - I'm sure Capita did want to win the MOD recruitment contract again - but at a higher margin - and AH explaining why their AI led recruitment solution was different to any competitors would be a justification for increased pricing.

However - I think MOD had decided to ditch Capita many many moons ago ... so it's probable that Capita would have lost the renewal at any price ....

If that's true - then your only hope is to differentiate your solution from your competitors and hope the point of difference creates buyer interest

In life though - you can't win every hand of Blackjack (however good a player you are) and you can't win every contract renewal (however good your solution is compared to the competition)

@Aim - yes my middle name should be 'lucky' as it's usually a signal to sell when I start buying ... And vice versa ...

Ha luckily I'm better and buying and selling property so all my share losses offset my property gains ...

I only added another £1500 yesterday so hardly life changing movements ..... it just started the uptrend reversal😀

Obviously - if we had won the renewal at 6% plus margin then it would have been brilliant news .... but we didn't ... but that doesn't mean it's bad news either ...

£150m / year contract that delivers, say 3% margin, is only a loss of £4.5m profit a year ....not the end of the world imho

@Trisor - yes the contract has been in jeopardy for some time as I understand that Capita were sort of getting blamed for lower levels of recruitment into the army than previously was the case.

Anyhow - also good to hear from IR that margins are in clear focus and if this contract isn't delivering the profits - then a non renewal is a benefit.

REMEMBER - You should always be prepared to sack / get rid of your low profit customers .... as they will then move to a competitor and drag down your competitors margins instead!

Nice we have g ot a couple of years in transition - although if it's low margin then the sooner they go the better!

As we didn't win this contract renewal then it's almost certainly due to us not offering to deliver it for 'peanuts' this time around ....

Why bother going through the pain of migrating to a different service provider (where the service may or may not to be as good as the current offering) - unless it was to save money .....

So AH bid this renewal at 6% plus margin - surely - and customer didn't like the price increase and bailed!

No point making the same mistakes as previous management (by under bidding to hold contracts / revenue) ....

If they can't afford the Capita customer experience - go somewhere cheaper and get a lesser service!

@Ekimp -I see you are new around here otherwise you would know I'm holding over 1.35m shares (accumulated over the last 5 years) so I absolutely WON'T be out by the weekend! 😁

Ha - I guessed it was due a fall when I made a small top up at 15.1p - never mind - on the quantity I bought it makes little difference ...

Just further confirmation I haven't lost my 'lucky touch' when I add CPI shares ....

Totally irrelevant though as I'm not selling any shares for some considerable time ...

Off shore contact centres is definitely a way to avoid the crazy taxation strategies being pursued by Rachel from Complaints .....

I'm also hopeful - as UK companies continue to lay off their staff due to the NI rises - outsourcing will come back into fashion and Capita will start winning more high margin contacts from the private sector.

If we start winning lots of private sector business then this will absolutely fly as the public sector side of Capita is fairly stable .... It's just the private sector that's been holding us back (as well as the lack of profit)

This has recently been posted and it talks about Capita from about 6 minutes 40 seconds into the video.

https://youtu.be/uRYjDypLDpk?si=eUIf4yIi1F2cgD1f

@JO - I feel the RNS of the Gas Safe renewal on the day of the strike action was deliberate to _support_ the SP.

@Adam said ages ago that the Gas Safe Contract had been renewed and it was common knowledge internally - and I think they sandbagged the announcement to offset the bad news relating to the strike action ...

If I'm right then we've clearly got people running Capita now that actually care about SP movements - what a novelty!

@JO - I totally agree with your summary and would add that I think I read somewhere that the valuation of the Capita pension business alone is more than the current market capitalisation of the company!

12 months at the helm of a ship in serious trouble is not long and the team that AH has put together and the strategy he has articulated looks sound.

Of course it could turn out that he's another JL but his track record and credibility would suggest that he's nothing like JL (thank god).

Time will tell - SP still being played with by the MMs at the moment which would explain a 14.12 / 14.78 spread this morning - who would want to buy with that sort of spread?

@Daltry - ha true ... I've got 1.35 million reasons to be optimistic .... but not really holding my breath as 850k of those reasons are at 17p average a share ... Which is an astonishing average (historically) and they are all in a tax free ISA.

The remaining 500k are at a slightly higher average but I intend to sell them on the last day of this tax year (as I want to create a capital loss to offset other capital gains) and buy them back into an ISA on the first day of the new tax year.

My only risk here is if Capita go bust .... but I can't see that happening so although I'm sat on a bit of a paper loss right now ... not really holding my breath!

@jcb208 - I totally agree and I wish I'd sold at 40p plus back in March 2023 too but, at the time and according to JL, the turn around looked complete and sunny uplands beckoned.

Then we got hacked, then Odey had to resign and sell his large stake and then it became clear JL was just telling a yarn and everything cratered!

Since then ... Things were on the up after the Capita One sale until Rachel from Complaints delivered a sucker punch (by putting up employer NI) and that sent us down the snake again!

It's about time Capita (and it's forlorn LTHs) got lucky ... and I honestly think we are due a bit of luck here after suffering for so long .... but who knows ...

If AH is wearing emperors clothes (like JL was) then we aren't going to know until it's too late! However I do stand by the theory that AH could have got very rich by staying at Amazon and he gave all that up to come here and the reason to come here was because of the huge 11 million stock options he negotiated ... To compensate him for leaving Amazon.

So these options are worth about 20p each ... So anything less than 20p then AH should have stayed at Amazon ... anything more and he's going to be in profit

I've made a very big investment here on the back of my trust of AH and his team ... Time will tell whether I was a genius or a fool!

@Wednesday - looks like it's being left to me to wave the flag of optimism here today 😁

We are still winning contracts or their renewals (think Gas Safe) and that implies the underlying health of the company is good (ie it's not going bust anytime soon).

Surely a business with such a high revenue stream (£2.5bn) and large sales pipeline (circa £5bn) can return to profitability under this magnificent and proven management team?

A 14p share price still looks cheap - these were selling for 50% more as recently as 18/10/24 and, except for the disastrous budget instigated by Rachel from Complaints, nothing has really changed.

I don't think selling CPI shares for 14p is sensible and the company must be worth much more than that (and large IIs seem to agree with me as they aren't selling either).

I'd be surprised if the SP is lower than this by the end of February as results approach ... In fact we can hope for a rally, perhaps, as March approaches?

@daltry - not CURRENTLY known for bundles of exciting news ... I totally agree .... but .....

No-one saw the sell off of Capita One and that was pretty exciting and caused the SP to rally for most of the summer / early autumn .... AND ..... a lot of very clever IIs (I'm thinking Richard Staverly for example) ... were saying this would be 40p within 12 months (and that prediction was made in late June 2024) ....

And ... Good old Warren Buffett also springs to mind about stock market success being the patient taking money off the impatient.

Finally - I've been sat watching this daily since early 2020 so - having served 5 years in this hell hole - I'm not giving up now (however boring watching the paint dry is) 😁

@Culley & @Daltry - I wouldn't be surprised to see some rabbits appearing out of some hats here as AH moves the company from a plodding Government outsourcer into a dynamic technology driven service provider with a new productised range of solutions.

We need to see progress on what AH and Sameer have started to productise and we need to hear about customer adoption (like at Wrexham Council).

Also more cost cutting without impacting revenues (and thereby increasing profit) wouldn't go amiss too along with confirmation of the internal adoption of their own AI solutions being used within existing Capita contracts.

Basically - all to play for here .....I'm much more optimistic for 2025!

@Trisor - I think they are still on strike ....I can't find anything to suggest a settlement has been made ...

Long may it continue as I assume striking staff don't need to be paid?