Member Info for Trenners

@Aim - they've got to let this go sooner or later .... The double bottom has been achieved so it should fly now ...

I favour 15p close today but I never make predictions as I'm always wrong!

@Jordi - I never thought we see 13p here let alone 12p or lower ... but never say never in a highly manipulated share that can rise as quickly as it falls ....

The SP is now totally disconnected to the business ... how can a business with so much booked revenue across multiple years be worth so little ...

The Capita pension business alone now is worth more than the entire market capital and you would think that increased spending on defence would be a positive here too with so many MOD contracts already being delivered.

Who knows!

I've just added more - probably the kiss of death as it always goes lower after I've bought ... but I've never bought in the 12s before ... so wanted to complete the sequence .... Ha until it drops into the 11s 😜

@JG68 - just easy to manipulate and I think they've engineered the double bottom now ....

I can't see what could possibly leak which could possibly cause the market capitalisation to be down at this level ....

Pablo bought a million shares here in the late 16s and AHs options are priced in the early 19s ... and other director purchases have been in the 17s recently too - so everyone in a hole here ...

Someone made the comments (on ADVFN) that we may well see a double bottom (at around 12.8p) this week and then the SP will takeoff upwards again ....

I must admit that I think this is a likely scenario as the SP feels as though it's been being manipulated downwards (not least by large spreads) by the MM in the last week ...

If it takes a double bottom to move us back up .. then bring it on! Not long to wait now!

@Macy @Aim - I totally agree that this week is pivotal for the SP and I've noticed I've started getting a nervous twitch over the last few days (as I watch the SP decline).

I'm hopeful that the December TU was to clear the bad news but I seem to recall the August 2024 and March 2024 also clearing the bad news ... Which just underlines how much bad news there was to clear!

Biggest feara for me is - how much of the Capital One money is left? How much debt have we got left? How is the cost efficiency drive going? How many new AI deals are we winning at higher margins? Will we really see free cash flow this year?

I am buoyed by AH and his team jumping ship from good positions in Amazon to work at CPI (smart people don't jump onto sinking ships) ... And I'm also buoyed by Richard Staverly's optimism .... although it's a different thing being optimistic with other people money (rather than your own).

So going into results with over 1.4million shares - I'm twitchy ....but I've managed to get my average down to under 19p which has been an achievement (but has meant I've had to average down aggressively and trade a few) ..

Whether I'm a genius or a fool - only time will tell - right now I'm feeling foolish .... which is probably a really good sign as I always call this share wrongly ha

Anyway plan is still to get a million shares in an ISA and sell the rest when we next get to over 19p.

Big week coming up ... I'd like to see the SP rally into results but I'm not holding my breath!

@Raffles - this is only 5% down in the last 8 weeks .... So your post is incorrect

Well I'm always optimistic on CPI ... and I honestly can't see what we are missing here ....

It's being priced as though it's going bust (which it isn't) ....

Or is it being priced in advance of another Rights Issue ....

But why would we need a Rights Issue if we had £210m in the bank from Capita One which, as AH explained, gives us "debt optionality"

We are clearly winning new business and we are clearly cutting cost and we are clearly winning renewals ....

So why can't the SP even hold 13.3p ....

Definitely a head scratcher .... which will no doubt be exposed on Wednesday!

.... Or are they trying to execute a double bottom before letting this rip upwards ...

I was looking forward to next week ... Less so now having watched this price action over the.last few days ..

@JG68 - as you say ... What do they know that we don't .... Might be time to have a rummage under the stairs for that tin hat again!

@JG68 - yes I agree that something seems off as the information we currently know shouldn't support such a lowly share price.

I've added a few more this morning but now I've stopped as it feels like it want to go lower ....

At this rate we will have a lower market capitalisation than the money held in the bank (from the Capital One sale) - assuming that money is still in the bank!

This is great news and underlines that - moving forward - we are going to win lots and lots of smaller contracts (by selling productised solutions over and over again) as well as some larger contracts (that need a bespoke solution).

I see the Housing Management system has been sold to a few councils now ... And that is a great example of creating high margins by selling the SAME solution multiple times (as each iteration is pretty much all PROFIT each time we do this).

All going in the right direction here ....

@Terry - I think AH runs a tighter ship than the old guard and leaks seem more contained ...

I don't remember the sale of Capita One leaking back in July 2024 and the near 50% rise in the SP (over 7 trading days) that followed.

@JG68 - I think AH the master magician is about to pull the rabbit from the hat as a vast number of one off payments fall off the year end results and we get proof that his turn around is working ....

And remember that CPI does well in odd numbered years with the last sudden surges coming in 2021 and 2023.

Definitely a time to be averaging down imo as, mentioned by Richard Staverly recently, once the market sees the turn around is working then ... Everyone is going to want to buy Capita shares ....

If never there was a BUY signal for Capita it would be @Savage suggesting we all get out whilst we can ... Hilarious ....

@Terry - you make me smile - always enjoy debating CPI and the many failings of JL with you ...

Water under the bridge .... I think the stars are beginning to align and, at some point, to quote Evil Knievel and Neil Woodford (to a lesser extent), the Capita SP will start to rise and simply won't stop.

This must be one of only a handful of shares that still hasn't recovered from COVID and if AH is doing his job .. that's about to change!

@Terry - If JL had not done the RI then CPI would have gone bust and shareholders would have lost everything.

I appreciate that the RI also cost the shareholders a lot of money (in hindsight) but at least, by keeping the business afloat, the shareholders didn't lose their entire shirt and there is still hope that CPI can be returned to it's former glory ....

I think the JL strategy of selling off the businesses to reduce debt and doing a RI was correct. COVID slower this down a bit but it was still correct.

Once the debt had been paid down then a cost cutting exercise could ensue and JL did announce a cost cutting program towards the end of his tenure.

I know ....I know ... The cost cutting was nowhere near aggressive enough and that's obvious now ... but hindsight is a wonderful wonderful thing ...

The market were very happy with the strategy and results in August 2021 and March 2023 and the SP surged accordingly.

JL is not faultless .... but (everyone duck - nuclear explosion inbound heading for Trenners) ... but I think I would have embarked on the same strategy as CEO back in 2018 / 2019.

Anyway that's all water under the bridge because AH is on the cusp of finally turning this around and making us all very rich (including @Tisor)😁

@Trisor - I realised I was at risk of friendly fire as I made the comments about JL .... BUT ...you would expect a CEO to make 'expansive comments' about their business ... That's what almost all CEOs do!

The last CEO to not make expansive comments was probably Gerald Ratner (where he suggested everything at Ratners was crap) - and we all know how that ended!

JL could hardly go out into the market and see CPI is a sinking ship, I wish I hadn't taken up th challenge, you'd be mad to buy this steaming ****.

I know lots of people are angry with JL on here and I don't think COVID helped his cause either .... but he did stop us from going bust on his watch.

If it's any consolation - I believe JLs Mail on Sunday article (July 10th 2022 from memory) where he insinuated that the shares would be back to £1 level within 12 months.

I believed that article and I bought accordingly and it's taken me a long time to average down to get below your 23p average.... and remember, historically, 23p is an amazing average ... I remember buying these at 35p in 2020 and selling for 50p in 2021.

JL stopped the Titanic from sinking and AH is now fixing up the hole left by the iceberg ....

@Culley - at risk of being killed by friendly fire - if JL had not issued the RI and sold businesses to reduce debt then we would have gone bust.

I understand @Terrys point about shareholders being better off if the business had not done the RI and gone bust but - to be fair - we hired JL to save the business and not drive it into the wall!

The clean up by JL has enabled AH to execute the turn around and AH could not have done that without the previous work of JL.

It's been a long wait but turn around is almost finally here and I would suggest we do owe JL an ounce of gratitude for stopping the business from imploding

@Forward - Ha I haven't bought any today but I did pick up 33k more shares yesterday at 13.41p to add to my ISA and those pushed me over the 1.4m threshold.

I've got so many of these shares because, usually, when I buy the shares lurch downwards (I've got the opposite to the Midas touch) ... so I keep buying more to average down!

Having said all that - I've been following this share since the early days of COVID and the company has never looked as posies for imminent success than it is now.

John Lewis sold lots of companies to keep Capita afloat and also fleeces shareholders via the rights issue ....but this means that AH has inherited a streamlined balance sheet of a company that can be genuinely returned to profitability by cutting costs and embracing AI.

That's a great position to be in as most companies are dependent on future sales to survive whereas we have lots of business already in the bag and we just need to find a way to deliver it profitably.

Which AH is now doing and will have a cleaner balance sheet then we have less interest payments to service too.

@Culley - I seem to recall that the December update wasn't that great in December 2022 and the share languished around the 22p - 24p approaching the results in March 2023.

At results - the share surged forward and touched almost 45p before it fell back ... And then we got hacked and it couldn't stop falling!

I think a positive debt position and positive forward guidance could again see a 50% surge in the SP towards the 20p mark which - to be honest - is probably fair value based on what we know right now.

13.5p is an absolute joke and the SP is priced for insolvency even though we've got the Capital One money in the bank (hopefully) and £2.4bn worth of multi year contracts and a £5bn pipeline ..... and we've embarked on a cost cutting program that exceeds are total market capitalisation.

OK - I'm back to a 1.4million holding here now and with positive noises about the impact AI is having inside and outside the company - I don't see the risk here ....

Although the market clearly disagrees with me at the moment!