Member Info for Trenners

@Aim - and if these tools are all fully deployed internally (which they are) then previously low margin contracts suddenly become high margin contracts due to the inherent cost savings of using AI to replace human interactions.

So - for Capita - they have the opportunity to improve profit on all their existing (£2.4bn) business as well as create new opportunities by selling into private and public sectors.

Genius - and I would guess this was the reason why Sameer was hired in December 2024 (to drive this strategy) and also a reason why he is being so handsomely rewarded (with his stock options maturing in just a few weeks).

@Savage - I wouldn't be too worried about revenue dropping 9% as the plan is to have a smaller, more focused, but very profitable Capita.

With cost cutting and the introduction of AI internally - we should see some pretty impressive cost reductions which will transfer directly to the bottom line.

9% reduction in revenue isn't the end of the world as long as we are seeing good growth in profit and positive forward guidance

After all - if revenue remained static and profit was 0% then we make nothing .... If revenue drops to say 2.2bn and profit is 6% then we make £132m profit.

I'd rather have £132m profit than no profit ....

The reduction in revenue this year has been well signalled although there is always the chance we get another punishment beating at result for falling revenues but the strategy is sound (cut costs and maintain margins) and must lead to profitability

@Savage - Serco have had more than ample opportunity to bid for Capita over the last 12 months and have shown little appetite.

I think the main issue (for a bid) is that many of the big IIs have averages in late 60s and they are not going to allow Capita to be sold on the cheap .... whilst, at the same time, bidders don't have an appetite to pay 70p a share either ...

Best outcome for Capita is to prove the turn around is complete and watch the share price return back to a sensible valuation

@TerryM - I have absolute faith in AH now ... and even more so after your vote of confidence as I know you have never looked at Capita through rose tinted spectacles.

I think this really is on the cusp of coming good now and 2025 should start to reflect this by an increased share price!

@daltry - I agree it feels like PIs have been mushroomed ....

But I don't believe Richard Staverly has been mushroomed ... And his investment (together with the CFO buying in the 17s and CEO paying tax on shares options from his personal wealth in the late 15s) tells me all is very well here and it's just the market doesn't appreciate that YET!

So a massive opportunity for brave PIs at the moment safe in the knowledge the businesss is underwritten by multi million pounds multi year contracts ... so it's not going bust ... the worst that can happen is that they take more debt to buy even more time to trade out of the difficulties they have previously faced.

I also stand by the fact that these successful technologists at Amazon didn't leave to come and join a sinking Capita and listening to Staverly on how impressed he is with AH gives me immense faith.

Maybe I'm wearing rose tinted spectacles but the money seems to be wearing them too!

Lots of negativity / concern on here today ....

I think we all agree that Capita was a lost cause before the turn around started and the first issue was the amount of debt on the balance sheet (which is why so many companies were sold off).

A lot of these companies have flourished when freed from Capita control which underlines how bad the Capita management WERE.

Now the balance sheet has been restructured and debt reduced - the introduction of AI internally together with a cost cutting program MUST improve margins and therefore profitability .

I think AH and his team have done an astonishing job with Capita in the last 12 months and I don't think the current SP is reflecting this.

Remember what Richard Staverly said (having assessed the company before taking his 3.5%) - 'these should be double by the summer of 2025' - at the time we were trading at about 14p ......

I don't think this is a jam tomorrow story .... I think we already have the jam (ie £2.4bn revenue and £5bn sales pipeline) ....

What we are waiting for is the cream (ie profit) and that's going to be created by cost cutting and AI .... we are almost there and I'd be astounded if this doesn't start moving upwards in 2025

A surge in their share price as they exceed expectations...

This was once owned and crushed by the ineffective management at Capita (before AH) and just goes to show what can be achieved when a company moves to a new management regime ....

I don't think this is the only business that has thrived after leaving the old Capita management which is why I have immense hope for Capita now under AH.

The steps that AdvanceAdvT have taken to deliver improved margins are the very same sort of steps that AH is undertaking here ...

All to play for here!

@Macy - can't see a lot of risk investing at these levels given we've probably almost got the entire market capitalisation on the balance sheet as 'cash at bank'

@daltry - I guess we aren't going to hear much now before 6th March and it's a bit of a binary between again really ... Either the markets ignore the revenue drop and like the forward guidance and we go UP .....or they punish us again and we might test new lows!

A few here think we might test the lows .. so that gives me hope as this share rarely performed as expected .. so I'm hoping for a rabbit out of the hat and a surge upwards ...

TBH - from my perspective - it doesn't matter which way it moves as bed and ISA just means I get to protect either more or less non ISA shares depending on the price on 7th April (first trading of the new tax year)

@daltry - no I wasn't suggesting everyone held so I could offload my shares - I'm not like that - I was just suggesting that quite a few on here are happy to trade CPI to make a few pennies here and a few pennies there ....

And to be fair ... They've been pretty successful at doing that over the past few years whilst us long term holders have eternally suffered .

What I was trying to say is that Schroders (for example) bought in and have been holding since 69p and they haven't been trying to trade this for a few pennies profit .... And they will be holding long after other investors have sold up as it's a fact that PIs sell too early ....

For me - I have an ambition to get a million shares in an ISA away from taxation and I will achieve this when we get to April 6th this year as I bed and ISA

Those ISA shares aren't for trading as I want them to grow and also deliver me a tax free income for life when dividends resume.

I may well sell the rest of my holding at above break even as a hedge against further falls .... Safe in the knowledge that the ISA investment is for the much longer term

@JO - I totally agree that the changes implemented by AH in the last 12 months have been transformational ... not least delivering on the £250m cost cutting exercise, repositioning the company as a technology led provider of _productised_ business outsource solutions (create solution once and sell many times over) and a laser focus on margin delivery.

I've no doubt whatsoever that AH will deliver and it's interesting that Richard Staverly has bought a 3.5% in Capita partly (if not wholly) because he believes in the execution skills of AH.

The patient long term holders here will be handsomely rewarded as long as they don't rush for the exit with a little bit of profit as soon as they return from being underwater.

Most PIs lose money at share holding because they buy too soon ... And always sell out too soon.

All those clever PIs who doubled their money by buying RR at 86p and selling at £1.80 must understand what I'm saying now that RR are back at over £6!

@ThickLucy - if you buy CPI shares you are going to need to change your username to @SmartLucy as you are buying into this share at the point where the business turn around is about to become evident

@ThickTrenners - has been buying these since 2020 and is still waiting for the fruits of the business transformation to be delivered ....

Hopefully your investment will bring all us LTHs some luck!

@Aim - nice to see you are long here again 😀

I'd like to see some positive forward guidance and an increase to the cost cutting program (to say £350m) especially as the MOD contract is going to be wound down.

I think it's about time we had a set of results that the market liked (last time this happened was March 2023 and previous to that it was August 2021) and on both occasions the SP rose by 50%. I'd like to add March 2025 to that list!

@Wildcat - Ha I don't feel so bad now as I topped up at 0.24p over support .... with the quantities I'm buying the 0.24p extra lost is hardly going to be life changing ...

@Aim - looking forward to your ramping posts again as you increase your stake here 😀

@Aim - I'm pleased to have been of service .... It's the reason why I only buy £1500 worth at a time as they never go up and always go down ...

Ha one day they'll go up .....hopefully!

I've just topped up again at a shade over 14p so if there was ever a time to sell ... It's probably now ....

I have a great track record of calling this share wrong (even worse than British Bulls) but I can't get over the fact that 14p a share here (with what we already know) .. looks the bargain of the decade ....

I have faith in AH and I'm hoping - when his latest options vest (when the closed period is finished) - that he will fund the NI and Tax liabilities from his personal funds (like he did during the last vesting process in July 2024).

I'm also further encouraged by the positive comments from Richard Staverly recently and the fact we are still getting renewals and extensions (presumably at higher margins as that's what AH stated was his strategy).

Time to SELL then!

@Aim - yes I spotted the British Bulls sell .... but I think they've got the call wrong and it will rise towards the mid 14s today ...

British Bulls get their calls as wrong as I get mine ... Hahaha ... Including recommending a buy the day before the TU (after which we plummeted)

But wtfdik ...

@Aim - strange SP action here for the last couple of days .. firstly we had huge spreads and hardly any A trades yesterday ....

And then a punishment beating for extending the RN contract by £98million at a good margin today ...

I'd be surprised if we've got an II selling here as they have been so supportive of CPI / AH and his strategy and there doesn't seem to be any logical reason to be selling so close to results (when most of the results are known knowns anyway).

Can't believe we are around 14p again after a good contract win ... Heaven knows what would have happened if we had lost the RN extension!

@Trisor - £97m extra business is £97m extra business whichever way you look at it and 6% margin is 6% margin.....

I think the future is going to be lots and lots of smaller value contracts - that's the whole point of the Sameer led productisation project - build a product and sell it over and over again ....

I would imagine that individual CPI products are going to sell for low £millions value per contract per year... at higher margins ...

Rather than the historic (eg MOD) multi year / multi million pounds contract yielding low margins but high revenues

@JG68 This is still being heavily manipulated by the MMs - the lack of A trade action and large spread yesterday shows it's being played ....

And 4% down when we add a £98m contract at a minimum of 6% profit ....

Just sit and hold and - as @Adam said the other days - there will be brighter days ahead ... And also remember that when she moves .... She really really really moves!