Member Info for Trenners

@Wednesday - or is the transition as PCSE becomes NHSE.

So the original 18 months is with PCSE and the second 18 months will be with NHSE as the business transitions?

That's how I read it .....

@Aim - as @Adam observed over the weekend - why would anyone willingly sell NOW ... the only reason to reduce would be if you were out of cash ....

Another contract extension just announced (presumably at 6% plus margin) and a share price that has stabilised since consolidation and is now pushing to break out of the wedge.

Maybe this new extension will give us the momentum to breakout today / this week as surely we can't sit at less than 14p (old money) as we rapidly head for FCF, a trading update on 17/6 and half year results in early August.

Maybe the summer of 2025 is what we have been patiently waiting for ove the last 5 years!

@HHH

I think it's still early days and the dust is only just settling ...

I think you mean RWC selling and not RBC ....

RWC have adjusted their positions up and down in the past and I doubt they are totally selling out here - especially as the boat looks to be on the cusp of actually delivering some shareholder value!

@HHH

What makes you think RBC are selling as the current volume is beyond pathetic ..

.

@JG68

Yes I agree £1.40 / £1.50 does sound a lot more respectable than 8p / 9p but ... I think we've got to have faith in this management turning the company around.

Despite Ian Hislop continuing calling the company Crapita - it actually has a solid customer base that actually likes what it delivers as proven by the KPIs being constantly achieved.

@Trisor reports that the AGM was immensely positive and the focus is on FCF and this should deliver handsome shareholder value.

The management team are rock solid and have also invested heavily at much higher prices ... I can't believe that we now think 15p (old money) would be a sign the business is on a stronger footing (especially when you consider these were trading for 35p or more during COVID whilst we carried multi million pound debt and had a useless board in control).

So - just got to keep faith - debt should not be an issue here (like it is over at MCG) and I must admit £1.85 a share for a capita share looks much more in keeping with the size and revenue of the company than 12p a share.

Just got to ignore the noise and wait for these to EXPLODE which they will do ..... one day .... hopefully soon!

@jcb208

Just a bit more patience required I fear. Shouldn't be any worries here though with the new management team having already heavily invested when we were up in the 15s, 16s and 17s "old money".

@Trisor

I think we need to let the dust settle a bit ..... as on consolidation day it's been fairly difficult to trade ...

AJ Bell for example has not allowed anyone to buy or sell all day and I'm sure other platforms would have been the same whilst they organise the consolidation.

What's important now is for us to get some new IIs on board and to also deliver results against plan ...

All to play for as we wait until June 17th

@Trisor

Its needs court approval to clear the share premium account .... see below wording from the summary of the AGM:

Share Premium Account Reduction

The AGM also approved a proposal to cancel the entire amount standing to the credit of Capita’s share premium account. This reduction, subject to court approval, is designed to increase the company's distributable reserves, providing greater flexibility for future dividends, share buybacks, and other capital returns. Court hearings are anticipated in mid-May and June 2025, with the reduction becoming effective shortly thereafter.

@Trisor

I'm by no means no expert - but th share premium account (showing over a billion pounds) was almost certainly created during the rights issue back in 2018 / 2019 as it reflects the difference between the SP of the original share capital and the amount paid to buy the shares in th RI.

So CPI shares before consolidation had a value of 2 1/15p each .....

So if RI shares were sold at, for example, 10p then 7 14/15p would be accounted for in the share premium account ....

The share premium money can only be used for specific purposes and I am not 100% sure if it's real money or it's simply a balance sheet entry (and the money has already been spent).

Need @James Oxford to explain I fear 😂

Trenners

@Bolton

Yes - 12.8p in old money is £1.92 after consolidation...

Let's sit and watch the IIs rush to invest in the new consolidated share ...would like to see a close of over £2 tomorrow ..

I agree - no dividends here for some considerable time not least because it's something that AH has never mentioned (as he knows there are a lot of issues here to sort first)

I think we should be grateful for FCF asap plus, perhaps, an announcement that the £250m cost savings have been achieved ahead of time and a further £100m ear marked for 2026.

If we get those things then I would hope we would get to at least 20p in old money!

@JG68

Failure is not an option (or a likely outcome) here ...

There are too many highly respected technologists who are wedged full of CPI incentive shares to turn this ship around.

The huge incentives were needed to lure them from their mega lucrative remuneration packages at Amazon and they, collectively, would not have come here to fail

Successful people like them simply DON'T FAIL

So the only debate here is whether FCF will be achieved in 2025 or 2026 or 2027 .... at which point the For Sale sign will be hoisted above the company as the turn around will be proven to have been completed

And whilst we wait for FCF we can be safe in the knowledge that the company will continue trading through it's multi year contracts.

I've been Bed and ISAing this week and am not at over 1.6m shares (which is the most I've ever owned) but even though I've ISAd everything .... I can't bring myself to sell any of the shares in my dealing account as we languish in the 12s

@JG68

I remain optimistic here and it's good to see some tasty contract renewals and heartening to see a contract extension today that includes the new AI product.

It may well be that the days of announcing multimillion pound contracts (that require huge CPI upfront investment and run for many years) are a thing of the past ...

Instead we will see a steady stream of lower value wins (possibly not big enough to be RNSd) but also, just as importantly, wins that won't need massive upfront capital outlay as we partner with the hyper scalers instead.

I think this is going to drift until we get FCF but it's got quite a bit of space to drift into given that even RBC think these have a 20p (old money) fair value.

As for Richard S. - I imagine he's sat (like the rest of us) waiting for the turn around to complete so that the business can be sold for many multiples of this ....

At the end of the day CPI is UK focused with minimal debt and huge Government contracts to underpin it. We should be safe irrespective of what Trump decides next ...

@Adam

All those free shares being handed to AH and his team have got to come from somewhere .... and the somewhere is the 7 million placing .....

Net result is that we get marginal dilution so that the management team can continue to be rewarded .... which is fair enough if they are doing a good job ..... and at the moment (and for a change) it looks like they are worthy of their free shares!

@Trisor / Simples

AH stock options were calculated at just over 19p each to compensate him for the stock options he was walking away from at Amazon .... Plus I think he's bought shares himself at around both 13p and 15p (from memory).

He - along with his hand picked team - have come hear to make themselves much much richer than had they all simply stayed at Amazon ....

So .. yes I expect we will eventually get bought .... but I also think the sale price will be many multiples of AH stock options (otherwise it was pointless coming here to turn it around).

Also ... I don't expect a buy out until 2027 .... by which time the cash should be flowing and the turn around should be proven

All in my opinion .... but I'm happy to wait to 2027 and ride on AHs coat tails!

AH vested shares will get consolidated too

@Terry

Capita at 12p is a gamble? Surely not? That can't be right.

It must be the bargain of the century!

We are still winning and extending lots of contracts and have lots of bankable revenue as a result. We've embarked on the right strategy to return to profitability in very short order now.

I can't think of any stock that offers more upside than Capita @ 12p ..... I will be bed and ISAing to the maximum and also stuffing my pension full of Capita stock as well.

I can't believe we've got this low and we might even see 11p next week .... Time to buy amongst all the noise and fear ... As there is absolutely nothing to fear here!

@Hosai

Of course if you don't want to bank the loss in the 2024/25 tax year (because you haven't any gains to offset it against) then you can always simply Bed and ISA on Monday .... or indeed at any time in the next tax year.

I'm waiting until next week and will bed and ISA in one transaction (controlled by the dealing platform) ....

@Trisor

I'm creating a loss in my DEALING account by selling the stock at a loss so that's a capital loss (as long as I don't buy the same stock back into the DEALING account for 30 days then the full capital loss would stand).

At the same time I'm going to add £20,000 of stock into my ISA so I then add back the shares I sold - less small spread and dealing costs ... Thereby reducing my ISA average and I'm NOT impacted by the 30 day rule because I'm buying back into an ISA.

Gains and Losses held in an ISA are not tax deductible so if this goes bust then I would lose all my ISA money and I wouldn't be able to create a capital loss in the ISA ...

But if it recovers I wash out some of the loss in the dealing account

.... what is perverse is the lower this drops .... Then when I bed and ISA next week .... I create a bigger capital loss (to offset against future gains) whilst also rolling over loads more shares (£20,000 worth) as the price falls ....

It would suit me to see 12p or lower next week as long as it then went on to recover .... as I get more shares washed into the ISA (thereby lowering my ISA average) whilst washing out non ISA losses.

Ha who would have thought I would be willing this lower in the short term! 😁

But

Of course, if it doesn't recover then bed and ISA is pointless ..