Member Info for Trenners

@daltry - it's very dangerous to be 'anti Capita' or issue any form of negative commentary on this board - if you do then you quickly get cancelled!

I actually switched my pension back into Capita shares yesterday (having enjoyed a nice rally over at Ocado) as I am hopeful that £3.00 will provide us with some solid support AND I'm expecting results to be in line with expectations.

Regarding contract wins - or rather lack of them - I think the days of the massive multi million pounds contract wins (that needed massive upfront investment and took ages to come on stream and sometimes deliver profit! btw) are behind us

This business has moved to a productised solution strategy using a 'cookie cutter' approach. That was the remit and point of hiring Sameer as AI product director.

So we are going to see lots (hopefully) of smaller, single million in value, sales - that fall beneath the multi million RNS radar - but, importantly, these new contracts won't need masses of upfront investment and they will be profitable from Day 1.

This cookie cutter strategy is what successful IT companies deliver - invent once and sell forever - and AH knows this JL didn't know this as he was too old school) and that's why we will succeed.

@Aim - why would we return to £2.40 again after the trading update was so positively received in June.

Surely - with only 6 weeks between T/U and half year results - and assuming nothing has materially changed - why would the SP collapse a further 20%?

Just interested in your logic - or is it wishful thinking?

@daltry - keep the faith - the investment opportunity for me was always based on the premise that surely a £2.xbn business can be turned around into profitability by cutting cost and implementing AI (to also cut more cost).

Even if we only get renewals - as long as we can maintain £2bn revenue at 6% margin - we create £120million profit.

New contracts would be a cherry on the cake!

If that profit materialises then we will be back in £7.50/share territory... If not higher.

@deos - for what it's worth - I think it will be different this time .... Although it must have been painful watching it drop from £3.30 all the way back to £2.20.

By any measure - the July 17 results were good and I really can't see this getting back to £2.20 any time soon (even though the "gap boys" will tell you there is a gap to fill).

Big drop today as the day traders exit and take their profits but also good to see an II adding since results.

IMO - this has rerated to a new trading range of somewhere north of £2.80 so those hoping to get back in at £2.20 are going to be disappointed.

They probably don't need to close as they've been snorting this from much, much, much higher levels.

OK the shorters short term profit has been reduced but they don't need to be in any rush to close - especially if the short has been used as a hedge against a long position.

I would have thought a short squeeze wouldn't happen here until at least £6.00 as this share has been a shorters dream for years!

Well we ran a little bit out of puff yesterday but really good - for now - to see £3.40 holding as that gives the hope that after a slight pause, we can attack £3.50 again before heading for £3.75.

What goes up quickly can also go down even quicker but also good to see an II adding more - all positives for me!

Holding £3 was both good and significant as it puts a solid floor under the recent decline and I would expect this to edge upwards again now over the coming sessions as we approach results

The whole smart meter thing is just a storm in a tea cup and gave some the opportunity to top up on the cheap.

Just need a solid set of results in August and I think we will be on our way to £4

@kipper - as we said earlier - this is all noise.

Maybe the SP will test £3.00 and maybe it will hold (or maybe it won't) but to long term holders it doesn't really matter - it's just noise.

H1 results will be in line with expectations and Ofgem will be forgotten in short order and the SP will resume the upward momentum it deserves as FCF looms.

I did sell 10,000 shares in the £3.45 range as I was holding too many and wanted to diversify a little but I also wanted to be holding at least a million (66,666) shares when this finally takes off ....

£3.50 is just the beginning of the recovery here and I fully expect we will get to £4.50 or higher as the year progresses.

I won't be adding back at £3 - however tempting that might feel - as I'm quite enjoying have 2 unloved shares in the ISA now (Capita and Ocado)

Are we seeing the short squeeze played out slowly?

What is the next resistance level - £3.74?

At what point is this going to take a breather - or isn't it going to take a breather with so many shorts trying to cover?

What do the charts say?

@kipper - I totally agree - whether you bought at £3.25 or £3.40 is totally irrelevant for the long term investor (of which I am one) and the case in point being I bought Ocado last week at £2.40 and was disappointed when they dropped to £2.35 before results ..... Ha ... I'm not disappointed anymore

I took so much flack when I pointed out that Capita wasn't a buy at £3.40 that I thought I'd just come back and reiterate the point as I was proved right but - agreed - irrelevant if you are LTH.

Not long to results now!

@bubbles - the fact remains (as confirmed by the current share price) that anyone who bought at £3.40 or higher would now be down at least 5% and probably much more.

At £3.40ish it was pretty clear the rally had run out of steam and was stabilising ahead of results so the reward of a higher share price was by far diminished by the risk of downward price movement - which is what happened.

It's irrelevant what caused the downward movement as 'an event' will always cause a sudden drop - but the share didn't rally much above £3.40 for weeks.

My call was absolutely correct and anyone who had listened to me (rather than cancelled me) would have saved themselves some money.

At £3.40 this share was absolutely ripe for a pull back which is why I sold 10,000 at a £3.45 average to switch into Ocado.

My call was 100% right!

"for those with less than 1.2 million shares" - are you talking about me @kipper?

I've trimmed my holding to just over a million shares here (70,000 new money) and switched into Ocado - another beaten down stock hated by the markets enjoying a bit of a rally!

Not sure if we will see £3 again but if we do - and assuming it holds - then a buying opportunity for sure but the sensible approach is probably to let the dust settle into results.

I'm keeping a watchful eye here but contributing less having been cancelled for suggesting that £3.40 wasn't a buying opportunity - even though that suggestion has been proven correct!

@boyobach

I agree OCDO as it stands is a Casino share and any long term holders would have been burned and burned again and again!

At some point in the distant future it will be a buy and hold but - until that day comes - trading a few shares to make a few pounds seems to be what everyone is doing here - if you can't beat them then join them!

I've given up posting here too - things aren't so nice anymore ever since the SP started to rally ..... much more camaraderie was found here as we all clung to each other as the SP sunk and sunk and then sunk again.

It seems that unless you are convinced that the SP is going to be £4 / £5 / £6 by Friday then you run the risk of being insulted / cancelled.

So - I'm taking my ball home and not playing here anymore. Nofear and Aimmaster might have been pumpers and dumpers but at least you knew where you stood with them and they were always respectful.

@kipper - nice for someone to acknowledge a retrace that actually topped out (as you said) at about £3.43 and retraced to £3.245 which is about 5.5% - and if it settles now - then that will be fine .... £3.30 is a key area though (at 22p old money) so it needs to hold at around these levels ... or the retrace is going to expand!

Well it looks like I called this right (over the last day or two) and shame on all those that recommended the post that attacked my totally logical prediction of a retrace .

I've not idea what's going to happen from here - but I least my advice to be cautious was SOUND and not DESPERATE

@Crow - your comment stung me so I will stop my commentary of what I think is going to happen next with the SP - I have been following this very closely since 2020 so I thought history might be a guidance - but perhaps it won't now that things are different.

Are you regretting offloading 25,000 of your shares at £3 yet? Just saying 😁

@Crow - not desperate at all - still holding 1.2 million (old money shares) - and I think you will find I am one of the most transparent people on this board.

I even own up when a trade goes against me (very rare here) and I sold at £2.50 actually (not £2.30) ...

And the reason why I sold .... I was holding north of 1.5 million shares and I was running out of cash so I banked some profit.

As I said yesterday - this is a HOLD at this level as we await the August results ....

I personally wouldn't buy anymore unless we dropped to £3 and I think that is VERY unlikely

@Heat - I agree - doesn't feel like the old JL days but we've already dropped about 10p from yesterday's highs ... And it wouldn't surprise me to see another 10p or even 20p drop by Friday ..... UNLESS we have a background buyer - in which case we should stabilise ahead of August results

Well - it looks like the retrace is underway and it will be very interesting to see how far it drops from here and whether it drops with any conviction or momentum.