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So we are back where we were - broadly - before the trading update in June and before Oasis caused the share price to surge as it acquired its 5% stake.

We are getting everything nearer to year and FCF positive so it's just a case of being patient again ....

I agree this is a very volatile share similar to Ocado although Ocado, of course, is one of the most shorted stock in the LSE whereas Capita has pretty much zero short interest.

This will either wake up ahead of Yellowstone next week or otherwise we need some news (like exiting the closed pension business) to push this back to £3 or so

@kipper - I don't hold Filtronic (unfortunately) but it does show that Staverly can pick winners!

I think the closure of this closed mortgage business is critical now - and that's going to be when the SP should start to relate.

Any sudden surge upwards before then is likely to be another II getting in early! Just need to be patient.

All of my near 1.3 million shares (old money) are held in an ISA away from Rachel from Accounts so when this comes good.... I'll be an untaxed millionaire (Rodney).

I can't add anymore ISA shares this year and have kept away from buying in my trading account as I think I am well enough exposed to a Capita success 😁

@kipper - ha - yes it should be INFLECTION - although it's a pity some of the green boxes on here hadn't caught an INFECTION and then we wouldn't have so much daily drops to wade through ...

I see Filtonics is £1.39 today (down from £1.64 in July) and that's a company that Staverly bought into at 12p a share a couple of years ago - a 12 bagger as of July!

Staverly paid about 13p old money (£2) for his Capita stake and I would be quite happy with a 5 bagger here 😁

Definitely an astute active investor that is both credible and successful.

Nothing to worry about here at all

@davebennet - in looking for that video (that confirms that AH and RS have previous form together) it was really interesting to remind myself that the MOST IMPORTANT thing for Capita to achieve in 2025 (according to Staverly) was the exit from the Closed Mortgage Business which is costing them north of £20m in losses / free cash flow each year .

Staverly comments that once this closed mortgage business has been exited then that is the point of infection where the turn around would have begun in earnest and FCF will be visible.

So - with only a few months of 2025 remaining and a Yellowstone update next week - still all to play for here ...

And everything is looking to be nicely on track ....

@kipper - Savage isn't so much Warren Buffet but a lot like Warren Mitchell which (if you aren't as old as me) played Alf Garnett .... and if that means nothing to you .....best Google it!

@kipper & @davebennett

It was SDL where Richard crossed paths with AH previously as per the video posted below

@davebennett the YouTube video below - posted in January 2025 - interviews Richard Staverly and he talks at length about the Rockwood Capita investment.

If you fast forward to about 11 mins and 30 seconds then you will hear Richard confirm that he's worked with Antonio before ...

https://youtu.be/uRYjDypLDpk?si=4j5_Krlqp44xHnlu

Absolutely Savage - I totally agree with you - Capita will get sold / taken over / bought out. AH has got previous form in turning around businesses and selling them off.

Richard Staverly at Rockwood was also involved with a previous turn around by AH and bagged a tidy profit for his investors.

I am fully expecting this to get bought out for a minimum of £7.50/share (and possibly a lot more) by the end of 2027.

I can't believe you've finally posted something I can agree with!

AH is due another few million stock options - right now as they were due to vest in mid July but have been delayed due to the closed period.

I imagine AH is thrilled the price has dropped from £3.50 in mid July to £2.60 today .... As that's saved him quite a bit in NI and Tax on the awarded shares (which he usually covers from his own funds).

Now that AH has got his options vested - maybe the IIs will start buying again to push the price back to where it belongs (£3 or more)

@kipper - yes I'm buying and am back to over 1.25 million shares now (old money) having exited my Ocado hedge with a tidy profit.

My average here is a little over 15p so lots of headroom for the market to play with the price.

We now know the June exuberance was caused by Oasis buying in - but I still see fair value of at least 20p (£3) here so any purchase at these levels will be handsomely rewarded.

It wouldn't surprise me to hear that Oasis are adding more at this level as quite a lot of their purchase would have been between £3 and £3.30 I would guess

I think we are down not because of judgement but by luck of the swing.

The market actually reacted very positively to the results with us being over 5% up by mid morning and then - on zero volume - it's been walked down again!

Not sure why - don't care why - at anything under 20p (old money) these are a bargain ....

Interesting that the same walk down happened over at Ocado so the drop may have been caused by the underlying macro rather than share specific.

@Terry - this time around though we can almost smell the jam ... and possibly even see some jam in the distance.

The numbers are improving and the strategy appears to be working .... and it's been a long long long time since anyone could genuinely say either of those things about Capita.

We are at an inflection point here and with Yellowstone in just over a week - I would expect a head of steam to build here now!

@Chelmochaser - I totally agree that AH was an inspirational appointment and the team he has brought with him (from Amazon) are some of the smartest people around.

When this comes really good - and I mean (multi bagger) REALLY good - then you've got to tip your hat to AH in achieving what (the luddite) JL couldn't!

Onwards and upwards from here - wouldn't be surprised to see £3.50 again by the end of the month!

I don't think these results are materially different to the June trading update and certainly don't contain any surprises - one way or another.

Our short term SP may be determined by whether any of the new IIs decide to add further stock at these bargain basement prices.

Medium term we will be just fine!

@daltry - I don't think I'm smart - or particularly lucky (as I so often make badly timed buy / sell decisions) but I am PRAGMATIC.

The rise from 12p old money to nearly 24p was meteroic and not sustainable without considerable "new news" which hasn't been forthcoming.

I thought buying back a few at sub 19p would be a wise move but - as I said - I'm not lucky and this could easily return to sub 18p or even less than that!

I think the £2.40 calls are wishful thinking (16p) from all those (including me) who sold a chunk before the trading update ... it might get that low - but logic says it won't!

Ha - what do I know - like you I watch the share price daily and wish I didn't!

@daltry - it depends whether you viewed £3.50 as fair value for these shares in the first place (which I didn't and so I sold 10,000 and warned others that £3.40 looked frothy).

I think fair value on what we already know is somewhere around where we are now - £2.80 ish and I would hope, with a positive update tomorrow again, we might see £3 or so by the end of the week

It was simply the II buying in that caused the share price to squeeze upwards and perhaps that could happen again tomorrow too?

I don't see how the news tomorrow can be anything but positive given everything was firmly on track only 6 weeks ago.

I've bought some more today to take me back towards the 1.1 million mark (old money)

Another productised solution that AH and Sameer have a huge understanding of - on the back of their Amazon Web Services experience - that is edging Capita further into the technology company space (with system integrations and business processing integration services bolted on).

This is brilliant news and I'm sure this is going to be well received

With IIs driving the share price from £2.50 to £3.50 (ish) in late June based primarily, I assume, on the trading update and only 7 weeks passing since then - logic would suggest that the share has been oversold recently and it should move upwards again!

However - the move from £2.50 to £3.50 was very quick and looks to have been caused by a squeeze for available stock as the IIs piled into the share ....

Perhaps the move up was too quick - hence the retreat back to £3 marker .

But you've got to think that - all things being equal - the share should be within £3 to £4 range this year and (as someone else suggested) possibly this month.

Of course - the IIs might pile in again with good foreward guidance and then we might move up very quickly again ...

I don't feel the worry of rapidly moving down this time (like I have during previous August updates) and I do think a retest to £2.40 is very fanciful / hopeful / improbable

It's an uncrossing trade (marked as UT) so it's irrelevant.

Google Uncrossing Trade for more information

Ha - that post of mine didn't age very well as we just crashed through £3!

Maybe I'm wrong about next week but with so much enthusiasm for the share after the trading update in June - it's a bit of a mystery why it's suddenly become friendless now!