Member Info for Trenners

@Savage

Certainly not too big to fail .....if it can't turn a profit (soon) then it's almost certain to fail ... as you can't keep losing money forever!

It's more that we don't need to win NEW contracts to survive (in a downturn) because we have a lot of business already contracted and being delivered! But is it profitable? Who knows? I hope it's profitable business but the market is expressing doubt!

Most companies live (or die) by the need to achieve short term sales forecasts (usually quarter on quarter) but the very nature of our signed, long term, contracts give us an element of stability (in a volatile world).

I just think the amount of signed contracts being delivered should protect us from short term volatilities.

@Savage

The great thing about CPI is that isn't not reliant on winning more contracts (during any downturn in the economy) with almost £3billion/annum contracts already won).

Others have said that CPI did pretty well whilst the last Labour Government were in power and there is no reason why they shouldn't thrive with the next Labour Government too.

Finally - a lot of the stuff done by Capita has got to be done by someone / something (like running ULEZ or collection the BBC license fee) - so (to quote Buffet) - some of those contracts create a moat around Capita (in that they are best places to continue delivering them) ....

All we need here is FCF from the £3billion revenue then we will be flying!

Almost £3 billion/annum booked revenue is a positive and gives a little breathing room to turn this around.

New CEO is a positive. A new CFO next please!

II not selling and sticking with CPI is good news.

Cost cutting underway should improve profitability (which has been long overdue) but also positive.

I'm sure there are more positives too but those immediately sprung to mind!

@Culley

It does boil down to whether AH is up to the turnaround job or not .... But I can't see this going busy within the next few years given the restructuring of the contracts already secured.

I'm hoping for significant progress being made 2024 through 2025 but if progress is slower I can still see this

operating into 2026 and even beyond ... Albeit with more

debt on the balance sheet!

Turning around the good ship CPI - having worked at

dynamic Amazon - is going to be like wading through treacle with bureaucracy at every turn ....

I'm sure the CFOs days are now numbered and it wouldn't surprise me to see other board level casualties too.

The entire internal management culture at CPI has got to change if we are to get a successful turnaround. It's been run like an extended Government department for too long now ....

I see we recently lost the SATs contract to Pearson and we lost it on price (and I suspect we couldn't deliver the services that SATs demanded for the price we had. previously quoted - hence all the negative publicity over this contract in the last few years)

So if the loss of the SATs contract means it will improve our profitability - that's got to be good news for us and not such good news for Pearson's!

Ha - sorry folks - got the maths wrong and I stand corrected!

12p purchase it is then .... Although I'd be surprised to see it that low - but then I didn't expect it to drop below 15p 😁

I would have thought anyone buying and holding from anything beginning 13 or 14 have got an amazing medium term, seriously wealth creating, investment ....

@Xenor

I disagree that 14p is top of the range here - it's almost touched 14.4p twice now and that looks to be the top ... So if you want your 20% then somewhere around 12.8p would seem a sensible entry ...

However - once 14.4p breaks then I think we will quickly see 15.8p as the next level of resistance - it's tried to break through twice and it's not going to take many more attempts especially when the June update begins to loom large!

Just my thoughts .....

@JG68

Ha could be worse - I'm stuck with 704k at 24.9p and I doubt very much that I've got the highest average here (ask Schroders) ,😁

Rome wasn't built in a day and as long as we hang on - we will be rewarded here - all this buying and ramping and selling at a loss (mentioning NoNames😁) is not for me ... And over the longer term isn't a great strategy imho 😁

If you look at the list of II here and how they've remained steadfast behind CPI - they aren't taking trading and taking losses .... They are waiting for the big return ... And so am I ... And it looks like you are too JG68!

(Not a good day for MCG either I'm sorry to notice)

DODL is simply a 0.15% management fee per annum with no other charges. I agree with Fleccy that it might not be an ideal charging structure if you've hundred of thousands of pounds invested (I wish) but when you consider that some of the most competitive managed funds charged 0.15% management fee (with often other charges on top of you've used a financial adviser) - I didn't think that the fees were too bad

I was paying a heck of a lot more when I held my ISA with Quilter spread across a portfolio of managed funds ...

DODL doesn't provide access to a full list of shares (only a subset of the most popular) but it's very easy to use via an app and the ability to buy and sell very small quantities of shares (eg: 1 x BT share every day if you want) then it's quite compelling....

It's definitely worth looking at ... Especially if you like buying and selling shares in small quantities on a very regular basis ....

They offer ISA, Pension and General Investment accounts and they also let you invested in a subset of managed funds as well as UK (and a subset of USA) shares ....

And before anyone asks .... I don't work for them ... But I have been a fan of them for some time!

I use DODL (run by AJ Bell) as a platform for my ISAs and pay ZERO dealing costs (only stamp duty) but there is a 0.15%/annum platform management fee - charged monthly.

This gives us the flexibility to buy and sell as many times as we like for 0 fees and 0.15% fee per annum is below what a large majority of managed funds cost ...

We mainly use ISAs to hold dividend yielding stocks (like BT) so the tax saved on dividends and capital growth more than easily covers the small admin charges

@Savage

That's my thinking too - fabulously defensive stock that is seriously undervalued and massively below the sun of its parts.

BT trading at £1.05 per share is lower (when you factor in the dividends paid since resumption after COVID) than the September 2020 price of 97p IE: pre vaccine prices.

Glad you are also bullish - I'll keep adding then and ignore the noise!

... and if so how far can this fall?

I'm continuing to add BT as I see the value in the component parts of the business ... but I've heard a few analysts suggest the dividend isn't sustainable and some have mischievously suggested a dividend cut will be announced soon.

What's the view of the long term holders here as I know the traders are talking about shorting BT?

@Savage

I'm a huge CPI fan but I can definitely see the benefit of BT at just over £1 (not least because that's COVID prices and also Drahi bought a very large percentage at £1.80).

CPI has the prospect of multiplying by 5 whereas BT could multiply by 3 (but it's a much sounder purchase as long as they don't cut the dividend .... Which is what they might do in May).

I think you'll look back though and see that either CPI or BT were good purchases

@DarkBlue

With Schroders holding 34% with a 69p average (according to No Fears data although I always thought it was 46p) then I can see how a cheeky takeover is going to be successful here ..... and that's possibly why we haven't had any cheeky offers (that we are aware of).

Only way for us weary investors to make a profit here is for the business to start making a profit and paying a dividend!

10% interest rates as at the end of July 2023 isn't as large as some would have you think on here ....

I remortgaged a Buy to Let property about that time and had to accept 6.74% mortgage debt (and that was with a 40% deposit and for a lot smaller sum than £100m).

I would have thought around 9% or 10% would have been about right for £100m in the summer of 2023.

Sorry 24 million sold and 13 million bought .....

@Kiwitwo

It depends if you believe that 14.4m Uncrossing Trade was a buy (as shown) - because the price implies it was sell.

If it was a sell then you've got 24 million shares sold today and only 9 million bought .... which wouldn't be a good sign!

@JG68

We just need NEWS - nothing has changed (as far as we know) since the last update but the share has declined (since the initial market reaction) from 16p down to 12.65p.

IR say it's retail investors that are selling and that seems to be supported by the lack of TR1s.

If it's any consolation - I've got more CPI than you and can't see any way out of this debacle other than sitting tight.

I don't want to do a 'Beachfeont' and take a stonking loss at 12p only to see the share price at 18p a few weeks later.

I don't think the CEO buying any more will help - interesting the CFO hasn't added (but maybe he will be out the door with JL in July) ....

We just need NEWS NEWS ... otherwise I can see this drifting lower still!

@Beaxhfeont

I agree that it could touch new lows tomorrow and possibly new lows every day this week BUT I think the upside here is now much greater than the downside risk.

CPI has always been a bit of a volatile share that can move very quickly (your 16p to 22p rise being one of many many examples) - but I would have thought a multi tranche investment from here would be the best approach.

I don't believe this is going bust (otherwise I would have sold out by now) and - if you are considering an investment I assume you don't think it's going bust either?

Accumulating from here - in whatever small quantities - won't influence the SP but it could have a very positive affect on your long term wealth!

Good luck whatever you decide ....

@JWBellamy

What a load of twaddle you post - perhaps you could post a link to the TR1 announcements of large holders selling?

Oh - you can't? That's because the are holding and supporting this company and NOT selling

@JG68

Without news this is just going to wallow in the early 13s and, if we are really unlucky, even in the 12s

We need an ICO report exonerating CPI over the hack, or a large contract win or two in the private sector (as there is always suspicion that Government contacts are won with low margins), a million shares purchase from CFO or CEO or both .... Or some form of black swan event (like a takeover offer).

Realistically I've given up any hope of a takeover - even at these lowly levels - so we are sat wallowing until something / anything happens!