Member Info for Trenners

There are people (not me) over on the Capita board (CPI) suggesting that Serco and Capita could merge.

CPI share price has been taking quite a hammering recently and it's possible the Serco and Capita together is just forlorn wishful thinking ....

I wondered what the view of LTH Serco shareholders is?

Good idea for Serco and Capita? Bad idea? Crazy idea? No way on earth?

Thoughts

Trenners

I am tired of trying to catch this falling knife.

Lots of contracts won and lots of II interest - yet the SP languishes at so a low value that it must be impossible to achieve a realistic price for ESS.

I can't see ESS getting offers of more than £200million or so given that it's old technology and not cloud based. I think this leaves CPI little alternative other than to retain ESS (as a cash cow) and find other ways to plug the whole in the balance sheet.

I, like other LTH here, hope that at these lowly levels - someone will come along and takeover this company and sack the ineffective management team.

In the meanwhile - just got to sit and wait. I've thrown enough money over the cliff trying to catch this falling star!

GLA

Trenners

I've worked for BT and although I have utmost respect for their engineers (and the holes and poles operational side of the business) .....

There are also swathes of dead wood employees who are drifting along waiting for the final salary pension scheme (which they joined pre 2001) to pay out.

This dead wood is neither useful for the business or employable anywhere else ....

And it is a significant drag on the business both financially and strategically in that a lot of the good people leave because they can't cut through the dead wood to instigate business change. Anyhow that's why I left ... It was like trying to push jelly uphill ...

Having said all that - I can't believe this share is trading so low and I am a LTH that added more shares today after those good set or results.

Trenners

a) Schroder would not have increased their stake without a huge amount of due diligence and probably held discussions with the company at Board level.

b) The deafening silence from the company is because they are in the final stages of concluding the sale of ESS for somewhere around th estimated sale price (maybe £400 - £500 million).

If I am wrong then I'm going to lose (tax deductible) money ....but no where near as much money as Schroder.

Just got to sit and wait now (as the share price slides) to see how this unfolds.

GLA

Trenners

For me - if we get a BREXIT deal and if Q3 impairment provisions aren't too bad and if the dividend is reinstated in 2021 - then I think the tide has definitely turned and we've seen the bottom in this.

However - and problem or delay with any of the above - will see this going down again!

Let's hope the tide has turned!

Trenners

.... But this looks like it wants to move .....volume seems to be picking up and quite a few large trades have gone through in the last hour or so ....

Problem is I can't decide which way it wants to move .... But up is looking the most likely!

GLA

Trenners

Another 1.6m sell happened (across 3 trades) just after midday and as soon as that had cleared through the share price spiked to £1.598.

Hoping for good interims from IBStock tomorrow and further progress on the hope that the background seller has now gone.

GLA

Trenners

So someone is definitely unloading these in the background ... Which is holding us back ... Just as we were trying to breach £1.50.

It feels like this is the bottom ... But then I thought that at £1.574!

Gla

Trenners

.... But I am concerned that the seller here must still be selling

... Especially when you consider that Jupiter have been buying

I'm hoping that the IBStock interims next week will stabilise this ... But of course if they are bad then we could see another bout of selling!

GLA

Did I read that RNS correctly in that we've got a new investor?

Why in earth does the share price continue to plummet?

Trenners

.... But will it hold?

Thoughts

Trenners

.... And with the FTSE and Dow quite high at the moment - I am wondering what will turn this around now?

It's been a few weeks since the share placing now and I would have thought the share price would have found a new range ?having looked to have settled in the £1.70s) but then the trend down continues ....

British Bulls have a 'stay short' on this stock but I guess that is just because the candlesticks are confirming the trend down.

Anyone any idea when FORT are next due to report interims to the market? IBStock interims on 6th August may help .... But our own figures will surely help more?

I am ever convinced we are heading for the 'double bottom' of £1.57 now and perhaps it will rebound strongly off that ... Or perhaps it won't!

Thoughts?

Trenners

.... When it broke out of the 85p - £1.05 it absolutely bolted up

... What goes up quickly often comes down quickly too!

I wouldn't be so quick to rush in and buy this at 96p for a quick trade as that could easily turn into a longer term investment.

The DOW is riding too high at the moment and when that starts pulling back then this is going to fall back with it.

This is heading for the 80's .....possibly the 70's ... And in honour of my good friend 2reincarnated ....maybe the 50's

I will start adding in the 80s again (if we get there) but those buying the falling knife at 96p maybe premature.

GLA

Trenners

Yes - it seems clear that Lloyds in the 30's or below would seem a sensible buy for the medium / longer term.

Many on here are predicting Armageddon with the share price heading for 28p or 24p or lower. Others are calling for 45p by year end 2020.

The way I see it - is that Net Asset Value is about 50p a share so for every 30p I spend I get 50ps worth of assets.

It's possible that the share price might get cheaper from here but it's equally possible that the Q2 results next week will be not as bad as expected and 30p will look like an amazing bargain by the end of the month.

I've been quietly adding Lloyds shares in the late 29s and early 30s and am now holding nearly 150,000 shares.

I know there are others holding a lot more than me on here ...

And there are some sat on the sidelines hoping and praying for Armageddon ...

But this is unlikely to go bust, will resume dividends in 2021/2022 (assuming impairment isn't too bad) and NAV is 50p.

What's not to like?

DYOR

Trenners

I think this is beginning to settle after the share placing and I have been cautiously topping up over the last couple of weeks.

This was progressing nicely before the placing and I don't see any reason why it can't start moving forward again now.

Balance sheet has been strengthened and house building looks to be a good sector to be involved with ... Especially if Boris is going to build, build, build.

I'm in and have been for a while now

..... I think selling out at 30p is a massive misjudgement.

Yes ... They went down to 29.25 .... Then they rallied to 30.45 .... So hands up everyone who sold out at 30p, bought back at 29.25p and then sold out again at 30.45p? Exactly no-one!

Lloyds at 30p is cheap .... Yes it might go cheaper .... Or it might not ... But with stamp duty and dealing costs .... Selling at 30p and then buying back lower is a gamblers game and giving away shares far to cheaply.

Maybe it makes more sense selling a portion of your shares at 38p after a 3 or 4 day rally (like we had at the start of June) in the hope of buying back in on the retrace. That seems a better strategy than giving the shares away at 30p or less!

As LTI once said - if you are holding shares for the longer term then the movement of a few points in price is somewhat academic.

I think even the luckiest short term trader would have struggled to make much money yesterday, after costs and stamp duty, on the swing between 29.25 and 30.45.

What is more telling is ... The mention of a virus vaccine towards the end of the trading session saw this share enter into a massive spike upwards .... And that should be a clue to what the future holds for long suffering lloy holders when a vaccine proves successful.

Trenners

It wouldn't surprise me to see this head back towards the £1.574 level now and form a "double bottom" that it first formed during the COVID stock market crash.

Annoying that they chose to do the placement now ... when they don't really need the money .... but at least it gives us a solid balance sheet for the future ......

I'm adding more shares, personally, at £1.70 and a further tranche at £1.60 (if we ever get there).

In the meanwhile ... I am sitting on my hands .... what are other LTHs thoughts / doing ?

Trenners

Yes I would agree that this is a good play between about £1.95 through to £2.15 and if you get lucky you should see £2.20 or even £2.25 in a short period of time .......

Share price does lurch around a bit though .... it sits quiet and then suddenly lurches up or down for no obvious reason!

Trenners

Ah ..... hopefully makes all the difference ....... it would have stopped me ranting :)

Two Hopes of 32p - 32.5p being the bottom ......... Bob Hope and NO HOPE

If we add the word "today" to your post then ..... perhaps 32p - 32.5p will be the bottom TODAY ..... HOPEFULLY!

Trenners

Trenners

Hi Falkland Investor
You are talking absolute rubbish (again) ..... the bottom on this could be as low as 20p ... and possibly lower ....

The FTSE is still at 6137 and Lloyds is trading at a shade over 32p now .......

What price do you think Lloyds will be if we re-test the March 23rd lows of sub 5000 on the FTSE .......
It certainly is NOT going to be in the range 32 - 32.5p.

This is heading back to 30p ...... and if that doesn't hold ..... 27.xp ..... and if that doesn't hold then low 20's.

If I were you .... I would sell my 500K Lloyds shares right now and buy them back in a few days time (assuming, of course, you bought any shares in the first place?) ..... or are you only trading Lloyds in your fantasy portfolio?

Trenners