Member Info for Trenners

Dodger777
The headline is actually saying that - due to some sound reasoning - it looks like this share is going to drop and all the posters willing a "40p breakout" are in danger of catching a falling knife. I honestly think this company is in trouble.

If this is such a bargain right now then why aren't THE DIRECTORS buying any stock. Why haven't they filled their boots with the stock of the company they run at a bargain basement price?

If the Directors have no confidence - why should we?

Trenners

Pokerchips,
I wasn't being arrogant .... just pointing out fact!

None of the people that I know (ie: my baby boomer peer group) have purchased Saga cruises ..... or even associate with the Saga brand. That implies that early retirees (like me) are spending their monies on competitor products / cruises.

It will be interesting to see what other - non shareholder Saga watchers - think of the brand. I think it definitely need to be refreshed / repositioned for the baby boomer generation (and that probably needs adopting a non Saga brand for baby boomer products).

Anyhow ... just my opinion .. which the massive drop in share price seems to support.

Trenners

I fear that current shareholders are looking at this share through rose tinted spectacles with all their fingers and toes crossed that things will improve.

Hi,
I think this looks increasingly dodgy ...... and it wouldn't surprise me if we saw another 25% drop from this point and possibly more . Thomas Cook springs to mind at the moment! Why do I think this?

1) Well I'm approaching 58 years of age and have recently retired. So I am the prime marketplace for Saga. Cash rich baby boomers. However ... being part of the "baby boomer" generation .... I perceive Saga as a brand associated with "old people" ... like my parents ..... problem is .... my parents are dead and I don't feel old yet!

And that might imply that the aged Saga brand is dying too. I would much rather cruise with P&O or Norwegian than I would
consider a SAGA cruise (full of people my parents age). I cruise regularly and have NEVER considered a Saga cruise .... their marketing messages are not getting through (to me).

2) It's a travel company .... and a lot of these types of company are under BREXIT pressure .... just take a look at Thomas Cook!

3) I, personally, have purchased Saga Car and Home Insurance this year .... but NOT because of the Saga brand ... but because they were a) the cheapest on the search engines and b) were giving me the biggest cashback on TopCashback.

For my £106 annual home insurance policy (4 bed detached with buildings and contents insured) they gave me a £70 rebate on TopCaskBack. So ... even if I don't claim this year .... they've only made £36 profit on my home policy! I also got a £35 rebate on my car insurance (and again they were the cheapest on the search engines).

My point is that business that compete ON PRICE .... and PRICE alone .... are heading for trouble as profits continually get squeezed.

So, in summary, the Saga brand is damaged, IMHO, in the baby boomer marketplace. We do not believe the Saga brand is for us ..... so, unless something radically changes with the brand, I can't see how profits or share price are going to grow.

For me .... 25p looks an interesting entry point but it wouldn't surprise me for this to go the same way as Thomas Cook!

So buyers ..... beware!

Trenners

HI
Anyone got any technical analysis on this ..... is 55p the next major support level?

Is everyone else just stood on the sidelines (like me) watching this sink further and further and further?

Trenners

If I put £1000 in a Lloyds saving account then they pay about 0.2% interest per annum .... or £2 ........

If I buy £1000 worth of Lloyds shares at about 0.625p then I get about 1500 shares and the interim dividend is paying 1.07p per share = £16.05.

So ... I am better off buying Lloyds shares than I am saving my £1000 with Lloyds.

I appreciate I have ignored dealing costs (£5.95) and stamp duty (£5) .... but even with those costs I am still better off than saving the money in a Lloyds account ...... and all of this is totally ignoring the final dividend for the year (due around April 2019).

So ..... i'm better buying Lloyds shares than saving my money with Lloyds .... .irrespective of any capital growth ..... so to my mind 62.5p per share is a bargain.

Will the shares hit £1 any time soon .... I doubt it .... but who cares .... as long as the shares stay static at around 62p ... then I'm fine .....

Just saying .......

Trenners

So am I correct in thinking that once we break 61.80 downwards .... then we are heading for the next major support at 55p? Thoughts?

This is a share to BUY ...... not to SELL ...... at long last the "transformation" appears to be happening ......

It looks like this is going to head back to £2 in the coming days ..... what happens then .... I seem to recall someone posted a chart showing a break out ... so what is the next resistance if we have indeed broken out (which we must have done surely) .... and I assume £1.80 will continue to act as support followed by £1.70 .... What realistic target do others have on this share now within the next 6 months? Thoughts.

Was this a tree shake or did I miss something .... It looked as though we were close to breaking through resistance ... But then we suddenly dropped like a stone. I think there is support around 170p or so .... But would like to understand if there was any reason for the sell off today .... Or was the SP simply reacting to the news that ManuDave has just bought back in LOL Trenners

So the judgement re: Tullow Oil v Heritage is due to be delivered at 14:00 tomorrow - Friday 14th June. Fingers crossed that the judgement is in our favour or at least partly in our favour as .... That will be the fuel that should make the share price rocket. If we lose then I guess the share price will fall a little .... But I think there is more upside rather than downside possibility. Time to place your bets ...... Gla ....

but WISE. I am not an expert either although I have taken a view that gold miners are massively oversold despite the world economy still being in a "bit of a pickle" ... and I understand that sentiment has turned against gold at the moment ... and that gold is still in bear market territory etc etc etc But the fact remains that ABG has a rich uncle (in Barrick Gold) and POG have hedged a lot of their gold at over $1660/oz ... both of these factors should mean these companies will survive until sentiment changes ... and sentiment WILL change ... it always does .... I thought about adding more ABG this morning as well .. then decided "not to be greedy" ... if this share rallies from here then I will make a tidy profit ... and if it plummets ... then I will add some more to average down. There are far to many "sayers of doom" who post on these boards and, in the short term, they might be proven correct ... but in the medium term ..... investing at these levels should deliver marvellous returns - as long as they are ignored and we don't get spooked (to sell) by the negative messages they post. i'm here with an average of £1.85 ... which isn't great ..... but it is a lot better than £2.00+ ... and I'm staying until I get at least £3.00 ... and will collect the dividends along the way ...... I expect to hit my target by Xmas 2013 .. if not sooner! GLA

Well .. if that breaks then I agree that we will plunge towards £1.20 or even £1.00 and, as stefser recommends, I guess we will need to buy some more to average down! I cannot see Barrick Gold letting this go bust and them losing their investment (as majority shareholder) ... and I think this is a £3+ share in the medium term ..... so it's about keeping your nerve. I was a big buyer of Man Group (EMG) this time last year as it plunged through all resistance to hit a 61p bottom ..... it closed at £1.20 yesterday ..... if only I had held on for the medium term (instead of taking a small loss in the end) .... I am not going to make the same mistake with this share .... As for POG .... it shot through the bottom trend line when gold plummeted and it has had a couple of goes to try and break back through resistance over the last couple of weeks ... but so far it has failed to do so ... but with a $1660 oz gold hedge .... surely it will break through resistance soon as well! GLA

Hi ArielArrow, Well a lot of the Technical Analysts (that I totally respect and have followed for some years) started to take a position in ABG this morning at around £1.48 as it continues "to hug the support downtrend line" ... and is indicating that it is massively oversold ..... many of them are suggesting that this could possibly double before it hits upper resistance at £3.00 or so .... although the doubling is not guaranteed ... although they think "a bounce" is imminent - which is usually in the 15% - 20% range. I have invested for the medium term and am looking for that magic £3.00 per share before I sell ...... it would be really useful if Gold breached $1475 as well ... which it has failed to do for the last few trading sessions ... because a breach at that level would signal a move back to the $1500's GLA.

Hi Tom, I agree that ABG v Tesco are very different beasts ... and also acknowledge that Buffett is not a great fan of gold (mainly because it doesn't deliver dividend income I think ...... and perhaps my analogy is therefore a little flawed. However ..... most posters seem to imply that this company is going bust ... and I honestly don't see that. The majority shareholder (Barrick Gold) are doing OK ... and with mining costs at $800 an ounce .... I don't see the problem .... I know Goldman Sachs stated they didn't see any profit from this company for 3 years with a depressed gold price .... but that makes an assumption that the gold price will remain depressed .... and - to be honest - if we could all call the future direction of any commodity ... we would all be millionaires (Rodney). Under what scenario do we think the majority shareholder will let this company go bust thereby losing all of their investment? In summary ... we may not have found the bottom of this SP yet (although it's only got another £1.52 to fall!) ... but at these levels it's got to be a BUY or HOLD .... and never a SELL ... surely?

I agree with Stefser .... and I have been buying (and adding) as the price dropped below £2. I agree with Warren Buffett .... been greedy when others are fearful ...... I am buying because I will be "sitting on a gold mine" ... which is a great adage ...... The Chinese almost bought this company at £5.20 a share ...... so it must look a bargain now at £1.50 a share. It only costs $800 to mine the gold. All the other costs can be cut or adjusted ...... this isn't going bust ... and when Gold rises back into $1500 - $1600 range then this is going to fly .... and when gold hits $2000 this is going to multiplicate ..... There are lots of traders who have had their fingers burnt trying to buy at the bottom and catch the bounce. I recall Warren Buffett investing in Tesco and then the share price plummeting by a further 20% ... did he sell? No he didn't .... he actually bought lots more ........ The same will happen here .... either we will get bought by the Chines for a substantial premium over £1.50 ... or gold price will rise and the share will rebound .... or gold will remain where it is / fall a little ... and the management will cut costs ..... So I don't really understand what all the hysteria is about ..... GLA DYOR

all these people / share experts / traders who seem to think that "goldies" like ABG and POG are going to stand still and go bust as the price of gold falls below $1600 or $1400 or $1200. What planet are they living on? NO BUSINESS .. whatever it does ... can standstill ... standing still is not an option, If the price is going down then that is a business challenge that the BOD is going to have to overcome. Interestingly, the POG board announced recently that they would be cutting costs and, possibly delaying the introduction of POX, because gold had dropped in price. My point is that these businesses WILL survive in some shape or form ... they are not going bust ... even with gold plummeting ... because - like every other business - they will cut costs and, if necessary, re-invent themselves to survive ... that is what shareholders pay the BOD to do. So, in summary, there has never been a better time to invest in goldies like ABG and POG for the medium / longer term. I cannot understand why all these doom-mongers cannot see this ... perhaps it is because they are not "Board member" material. GLA

just under 8p per share ....... great return for a gold miner ...... GLA

I didn't sell when you did ... too scared a counterbid would arrive as soon as I pressed the sell button ... but bought 11,000 more when the price dropped below 45p earlier in the week .... sat holding over 76,000 of these shares now with an average in the mid-30's. No point selling now ... I'm confident this will go through ... and am also looking forward to the forthcoming dividend ..... Are you back in here? Trenners

about the prospects for this company .... with or without William Hill. I was at Cheltenham in March for the Sportingbet Queen Mother Chase and I was at Newbury all last weekend for any number of races sponsored by Sportingbet including the prestigious Hennessey Cognac Gold Cup ... which, for you non-horse racing buffs, is a really top class jump race that is the pretty much the best race towards the end of November and the jewel in the Newbury Jump Racing crown .... Anyhow ... my point is that online betting is the future ... in running betting is the future ... and Sportingbet are making a pretty good job of mixing things up in these new betting platforms ... which is why WMH and LAD have been trying to buy them over the last 12 months or so ...... So .. I bought more share today taking my holding to over 76k ,,,,,, because, whatever happens, I'm comfortable with my SBT investment and I'm also looking forward to the 1.1p dividend soon as well ..... GLA Trenners

So .... you are going to buy an online betting company ..... that is a leaking ship when it comes to information ... so you let slip that the trading update is going to be dire and that William Hill is going to offer below the 61p per share .... then you light the touch paper and stand back and watch the share price plummet. Then ..... you step in and buy 300,000 shares ........ and trouser the profit ........ then watch the rebound! Fun times at the moment ..... sit tight ... ignore the games ....