Member Info for Trenners

My god .... I agree with Singh .... This is going to storm forward in the morning with the Dow up 1.62% and I will be really disappointed if we don't make the 90s again!

Cue Singh: To now accuse me of ramping this share as I've obviously bought loads and I'm trying to make the price go up!
(Grin)

Trenners

Batfasted is the same guy that lambasted me, last year, for suggesting that Saga was a spent force and investors should be wary of piling in at 36p a share!

Saga is currently trading at 14p a share so I'm sure it's now clear who was giving good advice and who was talking out of their proverbial.

I think MRO is holding well this morning and it has already tried to break back above 85p resistance twice (which I think is bullish). However, the real action yesterday didn't start until the Dow opened (where we got sold to oblivion).

With the Dow futures flat at the.moment - I'm hopeful we can break through resistance this afternoon.

Listen to me .....all that Singh optimism must be rubbing.off on me and, for once, I hopefully won't get Singh coming back and calling me a troll or a shorter LOL

Trenners

Any thoughts? Dow down again and MRO looked unloved today. If we.loose another 10% tomorrow we won't be far away from that magical 72p ..

Personally I would.like to see it get above the 85p support line but feel I'm being as optimistic as Singh looking at how the Dow has plummeted.

Trenners

I agree with 2reincarnated ...... you can see that this share has wanted to move lower for some time ..... but once the DOW opened, today, then the punishment to MRO was relentless. I couldn't believe the 85p support didn't hold ( so added more just above 85.2p) .... and I have been punished even more as a result.

It doesn't look like we are going to close over 85p so I fear that 72p is our next level of support .......

I would comment ... we are a lot closer to 50p at the moment .... than we are to £1.50 .... or even £1.30 (the latest broker target)
However .... MRO in the 80s or below is a bargain .... and I'm confident we will all make a good investment return in the end!

Trenners

Hi Singh
I'm topping up because I am a long term holder and I think Melrose in the 80's is an amazing price and I will continue to add if we continue to drop from here. However, being a LTH, doesn't stop me also believing MRO will drop lower as the FTSE falls ..... and, as I've always said, no one would be more delighted than me if this went to £1.50 or more (as you often predict).

I'm not a troll (never have been) but I don't look at Melrose through rose tinted spectacles either!

Trenners

Well Singh ... we might have been in the 90's when you wrote your post ..... but we certainly are not in the 90's now!

FTSE was down about 1.55% earlier and this was down a staggering 6.5% (so I topped up) ...... just goes to demonstrate what is going to happen to the value of this share if the FTSE starts a massive downtrend which many beyond anon3, 2reincarnated and me are predicting.

I'm not trolling ..... I'm just pointing out something that looks obvious / worrying!

GLA

Trenners

FTSE up but this has wanted to fall all day long and, like Rolls Royce, is currently struggling to move forward.

Dow now in retreat (as I write) so it looks like we will be back to the 80s tomorrow .....

More worrying is that we are around this level whilst the FTSE touches 6000 again .....

What price MRO when the FTSE drops back to below 5000?

I guess we will hear the 2reincarnated 50p prediction again - LOL - we are laughing right now - but I don't think we will be laughing if he's right!

Gla (including Singh)

Trenners

Posting an RNS (whichever way you decide to interpret it) at a few minutes before the closing bell running into a Bank Holiday weekend was immensely crass and shows little regard for shareholders.

The RNS should either have been issued at 7am on Friday morning or it should have been saved for 7am tomorrow.

There was absolutely no reason to issue it when they did and I don't see what purpose it served (other than to crash the share price in the closing minutes of trade).

ESL management should hold their heads in shame in damaging their company - which they should be running for the benefit of their shareholders - in this way.

For me, the management have lost my trust and I certainly won't be investing any more on Monday.

GLA

Trenners

Hi Sing,
I expect it to stay within the 85p - £1.05p channel that it has been trading in since 6th April.

Opening up factories isn't going to help that much if there is reduced demand for their products (which is why the management are working flat out to reduce costs). With a major recession upon us and reduced air travel then their will be reduced demand in the short / medium term. They are almost certainly going to need to make some redundancies (but obviously the fewer the better).

I was hoping a positive trading statement (and, to be fair, it was worded in a very positive way for uncertain times) ... would propel this up to £1.10 and then we could start trading in the higher channel (Perhaps £1.10 through to £1.30).

Regarding 70p, I stand by that prediction if the FTSE craters and we therefore break the 85p support line - and the revert to trading in the 72p - 85p channel. Not sure what happens if we break 72p.

In summary, the trading statement should have moved us forward ..... but it didn't .... so the share price will probably fall from here .... and that is exactly what the share price is doing as I write this.

GLA

Trenners

As suggested, yesterday, nothing really new in this mornings update. Most things are closed and they are looking to conserve cash (which is sensible and what we would expect from such a well run company).

Interesting that the share price barely moved - not enough momentum to break through £1.05 - so I would expect this to drift back towards early 90's / support line at 85p over the coming days/ week.

GLA

Trenners

I can't see what's going to materially change since the last update on 30th March - given we've been in lockdown since then.

Maybe some clarity on how many, if any, staff will need to be made redundant to reflect the slow down in the aircraft and automotive industries? Maybe some clarity on how much cash we have burned during lockdown?

For me - I am cautiously optimistic (of no new surprises) whilst worried about the underlying damage that has been done to the business.

Fingers crossed!

Trenners

Hi Dple,
Well - I'm with you (in at 36p) and I agree (with Night Watch) that this share is undervalued and I am expecting it to rise too (otherwise I would not have bought in). It would be good if we could get over 40p (and stay there) as it has been trading in a 30p - 40p trading range and if it breaks 30p I think we are looking back towards the low 20's.

Having said all that, I also agree that 2reincarnated makes good points about the DOW (and FTSE by implication) being overvalued and, if the DOW falls off a cliff then this share will be dragged down (with all the other shares) and 36p entry is going to look a bit expensive at that point! But (as NIght Watch says) - you only make a loss when you sell .... so don't sell below 36p!

What would I do .... well I'm still holding hoping we can breach 40p. And if the DOW implodes .... I'm still holding (in the hope of getting back to 36p). That's the stock market for you!

Trenners

Or comedian £1.65?

If 85p gives way we are looking for a double bottom at 72p next.

We last broke 85p support when Aviva were reducing their investment a couple of weeks ago but then gaped back up to 89p as the market bounced.

This has been wanting to move lower today and I hope 85p holds ... If we get that low!

Trenners

Hi Sing,
I was just saying that his call of 90p for this share (today) was a better call (than yours) for £1.65!

I don't think 2ri is a troll ..... I think he believes (like me) that the DOW and FTSE have got ahead of themselves in this pandemic crisis and things are going to get worse before they get better.

And when those indexes fall then this share (together with lots of others) will fall too ...

Trenners

.... who correctly suggested that if the Dow futures were negative on Monday (ie: today) then this share could see 90p again!

At the time of writing, FTSE is down 0.32% and this share has dropped a staggering 6.55% to just over 90p!

I guess some of this drop can be attributed to Rolls Royce and BA etc laying off big chunks of their workforce ..... but it also shows that when the FTSE drops ... this share can plummet!

Maybe £1.65 in the future ..... but not any time soon IMO ......

Trenners

I am confident it WILL drop (all shares go up and down) but I am not sure how significantly it will drop. This will depend on how the FTSE / DOW performs. My confidence that the share price will fall has no link, whatsoever, with my faith in the performanc of this company.

Also - I am NOT confident WHEN it will drop (if I could predict the movements of the FTSE I would be a millionaire Rodney!) ..... so I don't want to sell out to find I got my timing wrong and then have to watch the price rise (with me on the sidelines) only to then have to buy back in at a higher price because my _gamble_ went wrong.

I am very comfortable being a LTH of Melrose - which is what I said at the outset - and buying on the dips, which will happen, because shares do not go up or down in a straight line.

Trenners

It's just my investment style.

Hi Sing,
Yes happy to be proved wrong. Happy to agree to disagree!

As a LTH - I don't worry about share price movement too much. I could take the gamble and sell now and buy back when the shares are cheaper. But that's not investing that's gambling! I would rather hold the shares and add on the dips.

Remember - never sell on a ZAG as a ZIG will be along again soon! Shares will always zig zag in price and I just think they are going to zag down before they zig up! Just my opinion.

BTW - like all the previous bear markets - we will need to retest lows before we recover so I am convinced we will see sub-5000 FTSE again this year .....just not quite sure when!

All the best

Trenners

Hi
I assure you I am not a shorter and I believe the practice of shorting should be banned!

Iam just trying to be pragmatic. The fact remains that if the FTSE falls then this share will fall with it. So if we get a 30% FTSE fall from here then, assuming MRO tracks it's demise, then we are looking at 96p less 30% = mid 70s.

I saw the JPM rating of £1.65 but I also saw the Goldman Sachs rating of £1 and I think Simply Wall Street had an intrinsic value of 95p a share.

But all these ratings are just opinions but, if we can agree that the FTSE (and DOW) don't reflect the true state of the economy post lockdown - then this MUST fall.

I won't be shorting it .... I will be buying it (because I believe in the company) ....but we are where we are and I can't see this heading for £1.30 any time soon but would be delighted to be proved wrong!

Trenners

Hi Sing,
I don't disagree with most of the things you say (being quite bullish on Melrose myself) BUT ..... do you honestly think that if the FTSE craters by 20% or 30% or 40%? ..... that Melrose won't follow it downwards too? Hence my comment of why we needed to get up to £1.30 / £1.50 in the bear market rally last week (so that we wouldn't fall as far in the next downleg).

If we have been in a Bear market rally (surely we have?) then we will re-test the lows / go lower - before we can then, hopefully, recover. So - if we are to re-test lows then the FTSE is going back to the 4000's (probably mid or late 4000's) ..... and Melrose MUST fall with the FTSE. It's got nothing to do with the company - it's all to do with the FTSE falling. In a sell off - sellers are in panic mode and sell everything!

Hence my comment about re-visiting 80's, possibly 70's, and I wouldn't rule out the 60's (although I draw a line at the 2ri comment of 50p - but if the FTSE gets slaughtered into the early 4000's / late 3000's he might be right!).

Just my thoughts as a big supporter of Melrose!

Trenners