Member Info for TrekMadone

Why does it take PI’s to prompt a Co update to the market to explain why a ‘significant step change’ was in the public domain. This RNS should have been out on Monday. They slipped up, no excuse and you’d have thought the nomad would have known better!

Trek

Trek

Lol! And just gone blue!

I wonder if it’s us, if confirmed you just won’t be able to buy certainly at these levels

Trek

Did anyone else catch the news on classic FM, actually that is probably a stupid question lol! Anyways the discussed govt having home pregnancy style tests available by September. Didn’t mention any company though.

Trek

Eu gdp down 3.8%, worse since records add that USA announced 4.8% drop recently against 3.5% expected and yet the stock markets rise. Banks and insurers cut divi and now shell..unemployment up across the globe... It just doesn’t feel like it’s all priced in.

Trek

“How accurate are the figures quotes on this site please.”

They are indicative but pretty accurate as long as the spread is consistent and the sp is not moving too quickly. The algorithm is based on the trade being above or below the midpoint to determine if it’s a buy or sell.

The problems that occur are...
If the spread is wide a buy can be below the mid point if there is a MM with a liquid book that can match the trade. So a buy can be posted as a sell and vice versa. So watch the spread.

If the SP is falling quickly then sells can look like buys.
If the sp is rising quickly then buys look like sells.

So if there is say a 2-3% spread and the vix is pretty stable for the day the buy/sell figures have a good degree of reliability.

Trek

Just look at the volume in April, this is excellent because it enables institutional holders to establish their preferred position in avct. And note the SP trajectory is up against the high volume...

These were the key dates, look at them on the volume chart and it sort of explain why the sp went up before the placing, because it was already heavily traded and now after the final placing its still heavily traded. Sure today is a down day. I have posted my suspicions that Hambro want out, to bag a huge profit. It they do they would have been able to do so this week if they haven’t that means they are happy with the new %. Either way a win win for PI’s. Imo this volume cannot carry on indefinitely this high. It will settle soon the they sp will move like it does on aim disproportionately to ‘small’ volumes and spike to new levels on news. Lots of news lots of new levels!

6th April placing was announced to market
24th April 31,944,443 placed and 11,111,110 subscription shares active following GM.
There have been 6 holding rns’s In April.
If sort of tells a story and this is just my read on it...

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/exchange-insight/trade-data.html?fourWayKey=GB00BYYW9G87GBGBXASX1

Trek

It takes time, the finals were good they looked back but the guidance was outstanding. I am very impressed with this BoD and how they engage with there shareholders. If anyone hasn’t looked yet check out the last two ppt on the homepage. An excellent presentation and honest about how they included concerns that not all health authorities had had budgets set yet so there may be some order lag but that’s against exceptional guidance. Don’t always expect the herd to arrive with stocks, DCTA is another classic example, but eventually value will out.

LID has an impressive list of institutional holders. They’d have dug into the numbers and may well add thing is though there just isn’t the shares in float. The only way to get more here imo is to buy the lot and someone probably will.

All imo

Trek

Hi olderandwiser,

A fair point but I am glad they didn’t. Why because we don’t need cash. If you look beneath the balance sheets of the likes of GDR and ODX you will see both need cash. In the case of ODX they were running on an overdraft before they had an unspecified grant as part of the consortium to move with its antibody tech which has really been driven by mologic. And they are all good companies. Ok what’s the point I am making, well once you take the money you are steered by the govt in a direction they want. That in term can dilute a company’s commercial aspirations.

So when you compare with AVCT they have free will to move in a direction that they best see fits shareholder and customer aspirations. The USA then the RoW, can you see Hanc*ck allowing that if he’d just written a cheque out for 1m. I get slated on many boards for holding contrarian views but I hope people find them useful.

In the meantime the market here is squeezing my gonads with its significant holding rather severely. Squeeze away because I am looking at path to profit from a BoD that are continually impressing me on this journey. I think they have looked at the NCYT journey, reviewed their impressive model, looked at the supply side lessons and copied and improved! These are all my opinions only. ATB

Trek

Great find, please read amongst the noise..... suggest reading full article and Note ‘September’......lol!

“A federal agency is funding antigen test development

Birx isn't the only government official interested in antigen testing. The Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), part of the US Department of Health and Human Services, awarded $710,000 to a test manufacturer earlier this month to accelerate a coronavirus antigen test.

The company, OraSure, had previously developed a rapid antigen test for Ebola, which was green-lit by the Food and Drug Administration last year. In announcing the new funding, BARDA said the company's coronavirus test would "allow people to be screened and triaged within minutes rather than waiting several days for test results.

“OraSure's CEO, Stephen Tang, told CNN that he hoped to have a test available by September. The test would use saliva, like an HIV test made by the company. OraSure said it was hoping to ship millions of coronavirus tests within months of entering the market.”

https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/04/27/health/antigen-tests-coronavirus-breakthrough/index.html

Trek

Thank you for that amazing evidence based contribution that clearly separated opinion from fact. I’m sorry yours just happened to be the next post. I do respect democracy.

Trek

Hi VanV,

Totally respect your IMO and respect your postings but In this instance I totally disagree.

Here is the original clinical trials register...

https://www.clinicaltrialsregister.eu/ctr-search/trial/2020-001023-14/GB

Here is the detraction...

https://www.hra.nhs.uk/covid-19-research/approved-covid-19-research/281317/

Why? Open your mind. Like I have said it’s not necessarily a bad change of direction but how will the market receive it? Thankfully most here think it’s ok!

Anyways I’m tired, read my posts on SNG, hopefully you’ll find most are evidence based and note. I’m just rebalancing accordingly. Atb.

Trek

Good post for balance Iamrich because at least they let the new broker know of the change in direction. Saves an RNS.

Trek

Totally agree with you Jack-Allis, you have always been pragmatic IMVHO.

For those looking for few words....

NEVER underestimate the power of the placebo, so if your looking fkd (sng) change the terms.

Is that easier for you to understand. How’s about they are doing a great job ‘putting lipstick on a pig!’ The guys are imo in recovery mode. They are doing a good job of adapting to change. I and others see through it, we may be wrong. BUT, They don’t help themselves with no RNS....

Go and think about both sides of the debate and position yourselves accordingly.

Of course my views may be total bllx, but would you really think it more or less helpful if I kept them to myself. I hope it’s helpful, even if it’s wrong coz at least it’s an alternative opinion based on material that we have viewed, but I do hope I’m wrong.

Ok so why invested... because the trial proceeds, efficacy is obviously very high. By default (time delays, ‘not ideal’ etc) they are (May be) treating higher risk patients to hit numbers so whilst these patients are more vulnerable they are not jeopardising efficacy which is an absolute imperative. But placebo differentiation is close so what do you do. You gotta winner, ffs copd p2 shows you it works! But the reality is all the targets arriving in hospital are too sick (people don’t just turn up in hospital at early stages of covid, IFN b works best earlier, patients wait till they are really ill before they go hospital, the project didn’t factor this in). So what do you do........

Well you move the goal posts into your favour and kick the goalie (Trek and others! Lol!) in the ****** while you are at it. But ok whilst this seems smart and it is definitely for the long term benefit imo the market will deliver a likewise swift kick in the bllx for extending the timescales not just for disingenuous behaviour but for opening the window to competition. That’s my take and positioned accordingly. ATB..

Trek

Guys,

I Lol love the friendly banter. Hey why not watch TXP tomorrow and see how well it does. Also DDDD where Fridays sells went now 35% up and split with ARB (ahead of results) slightly up and the residue today ( ‘only’ admittedly £4K coz I have loads) went into DCTA where I and about two others only post. But I have a massive holding there and it’s one where I strongly believe and incidentally a multi-billionaire US investor (with now 26% of stock) and ’itsyou’ a top top poster know we are so far ahead of the crowd and it’s gonna in our view be a blockbuster....oh I also added to AVCT but my 102 and 104 buys are down., for now. There’s the honesty.

Anyways question is will some of that capital be returning in the morning. Answer no. Reason, I expect or rather the market is entitled to an RNS. Shares will spike SP will pull back on the realisation that the home trial bias is an extension. Markets are very impatient when timescales are extended (albeit imo for the right reasons) and terms change. They were attributing a 900% rise for a miracle diagnostic in the 8 weeks that is no longer (imo) gonna happen. Look I’m fine with that coz I have worked it out so happy to leave my 40k there as a hedge, build on it laters. Let the all in all out brigade of rampers derampers do their bit and I will ease back in when I am comfortable. Now here’s the thing. Some PI’s just don’t get selling lower to protect capital and then buying higher. They sit, watch, rue, endure purgatory because they need their price to be hit before they buy but I couldn’t give a fk if I bought back in at £1 if the landscape changed and that was a lower risk entry price based on the the SP driver which is why imo street cred is out for this BoD now. They are hell bent on getting the right result to deliver a statistical differentiation that they have re-written the spec independently of the market. But it’s ok now (well it’s not but you know what I mean) because I have balanced my investment accordingly and that is thanks to some flipping good posters on this BB. They know who they are and that is why many of us keep posting and endure the I’ve topped up, you wouldn’t to be out,...., buys as sells, boom brigade. And from my experience it’s the rampers that are more likely to ‘take’ your money. Derampers make you research rationalise and competently equip you to debate. Be interesting to see how TXP and SNG do over the next few days. Not that it matters I guess as long as they both go up...

This is gonna rocket guys!!!......But not as much as the ODX BB as they got the best rampers!

Oh for research and pragmatism DCTA (but I would say that) is the best BB for just info as is SAVP, top top posters on SAVP but ‘all’ under water though. So goes to show research doesn’t beat luck. Be lucky atb...

Trek

Hi Nolupus,

That is a very helpful paper, couldn’t see a date though, but it’s one of many reasons apart from cash why I only have a v small punt in ODX from two weeks ago. Reading between the lines it also sets affimer tech aside and if you really want a hard time go post it on the ODX board! Note the PCR test is predicated on nasal which is fraught with risk. I am expecting the POC test to be either finger prick or spit.... fk me that curry was hot!

......

Anyways totally agree with Y -Allam who beat me too it this should have been RNS’d. FFS you don’t say.......

“The addition of this testing will help with recruitment into the study and also ensure we are able to give the study medication as quickly as possible.”

Which were my and other (pragmatists) concerns from earlier

And say..

“This substantial amendment is being submitted to allow patients to be dosed in the home environment within 72 hours of symptoms first developing with either SNG001 or placebo daily for 14 days. The Pilot phase of SG016 now includes 100 patients initiated in hospital and 120 patients initiated in the home setting.”

A SUBSTANTIAL amendment should be in tandem with the market, sure there will have to be an RNS tomorrow and I do agree the BoD have to be fleet of foot but don’t take the pss. We worked this out earlier. And before all the ha ha’s it works both ways. This is imo is a depletion of trust so the precedent has now been set to watch this lot as all AIM directors like fking hawks imo none can be trusted. Atb to all, now even more cross referencing to do!

Trek

https://mologic.co.uk/mologic-launches-manufacturing-facility-to-boost-access-to-covid-19-rapid-diagnostic-tests/

Trek

Hi Forest,

This is a substantial shift, I think it’s a result of the ACE2 concerns I and others posted the weekend and also the ‘timing issues’. I give full credit to the BoD for adapting mid flight but about to enjoy an Indian (phall of course!) and will read up later....

As I posted earlier the two likely candidates for POC test at this stage are Thermo Fisher and Mologic... this was mologics latest news release. Friday. They are looking at mass antigen and antibody tests

Construction has begun on a new diagnostic manufacturing site, which will have capacity to produce up to 40 million tests per year
The first products to be manufactured will be rapid COVID-19 diagnostic tests
The new facility is a legally separate social enterprise with a mission to deliver diagnostics at a fair price to the national and international markets
It will also become a training facility for partners in low-income countries and regions currently poorly served by diagnostics provision

Trek

Hi Guys (that means boys and girls before someone else starts),

I would like to think I have contributed to the BB with balanced views and wherever possible when quoting I have referenced links or used IMO to state opinion (check my history).

Can some please understand that there is a different stance to all in or all out. It’s a halfway house around managing risks and adjusting one’s views, that is completely different to trading where you may be news agnostic. I held 100k shares at 30p av. My rational which I articulated earlier meant that I reduced over the last few days but i still have a decent holding of 40k. One thing I have learnt the hard way over the years is even before profit to protect one’s capital at all costs.

I’m still positive for SNG as have a decent holding, I have just parked some for now. It does, however, vex me when people claim to invite open constructive debate and then attack posters as opposed to the post. Look don’t get me wrong I have my ramps where I try to join dots up but I dont think you can put a price on civility. Atb all.

Trek

Moved some covid share profits into here over the last few days and a split with few others. No such a thing as a sure thing but the story here whilst not looking at a 10bag (yet) is so compelling with risk from here imo to the upside. T&T seem to be on top of the covid numbers and the US is looking (rightly or wrongly) to become more mobile again. Not the best of macro but at least it looks to be turning. The reaction at CeRP showed there is an appetite as well. Timing can often be the biggest sp driver.

Trek

Yes and my post from 2pm to contextualise....

“Interesting that the Dow futures are now showing 500 pts up on Gilead covid 19 progress. They have discounted GM’s abysmal figures, Boeing’s disastrous order book and even the GDP figures down 4.8 v 3.5% decline. Now ‘all’ the market is interested in from a headline perspective is how Gilead is going to save the day. And look at their MCAP!”

Think laterally. What do you think is going on here, many will know the ups and downs of ncyt, imo this is going to be bigger. Hopefully another TR1 soon and then off again. Atb.

Trek