Member Info for TrekMadone

Meant to add as I mentioned in an earlier post I suspect RM is already looking to outsource to get deal and line up production.

Trek

Pilgrim
“Triggered debate about what? A bunch of PI's who have no idea? It's a nebuliser that will be purchased in the millions..it's not a topic for debate because it's so irrelevant compared to other costs”

Go read the NCYT RNS’s and understand the supply side constraints that they have had to overcome with both reagents and components for Pimerdesign because they are having to source in the millions. This is why they have outsourced to the likes of YGEN to help. Or closer to home you may have noticed that there is a shortage of PPE because supply lines weren’t geared up in advance.

wrt costs the upscaling for mass production will be capex intensive and front ended. The capex, infrastructure and components will be one of if not the highest cost element.

Hope that helps

Trek

Hi,

Remember from the RNS there are thousands of covid sufferers and yet we only got 75 candidates. That is imo because we got 75 correct candidates. That was such an important bit of news it was a reach from RM. I am much more relaxed here irrespective of SP action and I don’t think I can be accused of being a ramper. Lol! Atb all.

Trek

Pilgrim,

I posted a link yesterday about nebuliser shortages, I think some shared research into understanding this challenge may help us better understand our investments. Atb.

http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/clinical/clinical-specialties/respiratory-/asthma-inhaler-stock-supply-issues-still-ongoing-amid-covid-19-demand-surge/20040616.article

Trek

Hi B2H,

This is from the RNS 25th March

“o Manufacture of SNG001 drug product and other supply chain considerations.”

I did post a Bloomberg link, lost it now, that bill gates was going to (is) building 7 factories to mass produce drugs in advance. This is only a guess on my part, but I wouldn’t be surprised if SNG001 is a candidate as he is taking his steer from the who list.

Trek

Sometimes you pick up on a sub narrative that tells you as much about the person you are dealing with as the content of the whole RNS.... “I have made it clear....” not seen that in an RNS before!

I think Dr Alister Smith is one tough MF!

“I have made it clear that we intend to partner the SARS-COV-2 spike protein Affimer reagents with several select companies to support antigen test development on multiple diagnostic test platforms. This will contribute most effectively to the urgent need to increase antigen testing capacity globally and maximise the commercial return to Avacta. Adeptrix is one example of this and other discussions are underway. I look forward very much to further updating the market in the near future."

Trek

Sting
“I do agree if a £1 tablet come along that would be cheaper and more adopted. But how likely is
that ?”

“The randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled Phase II study will evaluate the efficacy and safety of MRx-4DP0004, in addition to standard-of-care in up to 90 patients hospitalised with symptoms indicative of COVID-19. Eligible participants will be randomised 2:1 to receive 14 days of treatment with either MRx-4DP0004 or placebo (two capsules twice daily).....”

Also tolerated in asthma... but a bit behind SNG

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/DDDD/phase-ii-study-in-covid-19-t5lyi9j37e1q2xj.html

Trek

There are a couple of new inhaled treatments listed. But the dates are so far behind SNG...e.g

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04356833?cond=COVID&cntry=GB&draw=10&rank=6

Trek

Lots of posts here today, a good sign and ‘guru’s’ becoming bitcoin bulls. Looking up imo.

Famed investor and CEO of Galaxy Digital Holdings Mike Novogratz said that now is the time for bitcoin, even though the cryptocurrency has slumped in recent months amid the coronavirus pandemic.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/news/bitcoin-mike-novogratz-buy-now-coronavirus-pandemic-adoption-us-markets-2020-4-1029086695

What we really need to see to verify it as digital gold is to rise when the market falls so far it has been linked to the market. There may be a decoupling soon.

Trek

£1

Trek...

Flipping page keeps reloading when you type. Atb all.

Trek

Totally with you on inflation....

Take an aircraft as a simple paradigm. Sure cheap fuel but the industry has/will be under huge pressures. People won’t be travelling as much due to rising unemployment. They will have to have a costly covid plan in place and those that have to travel will have to pay more, much more.

Look at supermarkets, everyone raving on about defensive qualities, sure but they probably haven’t been to one lately. You queue to get in so the footfall and sales are down. When you get into a Morrison’s there are boxes of unsold tomatoes for 5p! They can’t sell it but are locked in to supply contracts. So they will be reviewed down and peeps will have to pay more.

Put on top of that people not travelling and Brexit and you can’t harvest products. Not enough people to pick them so the pigs are the only winners and the price of what you can sell well it goes up.

So the circle continues. Gold is gonna get interesting and perhaps Bitcoin. The US yield curve inversion that keeps popping up meaning the 10year treasuries yield less than short term notes means people are happy now to loan to the government and get less back on what the lent, same with bunds. Why? Because if they leave that money in the bank they think the interest rates will be zero and inflation will erode cash at a higher rate meaning it’s actually going to be worth less than if they bought treasuries now.

There will be a price for QE, it’s a market steroid atm, it really hasn’t achieved what was intended as corporates instead of growing their business and creating tangible assets have been buying back shares and propping up dividends. The Keynesian approach with infrastructure spend to forge employment and boost productivity was what was needed but each government has succumbed to electioneering the stock market wave and now they are going to be fkd because they need to get people back to work so up pops Keynes but they have spent the money on QE. And now the double whammy a huge covid bill and now the triple whammy tax revenues significantly down. I can hear those printing presses getting ready, more inflation! They just need to invent a catchy name for it first one that sounds clever and belies what it is. How about monetary easing. Might get away with that peeps will think it’s same sort of thing. Gosh this is gonna get ugly!

I sold all my blue chips and traded the bounce pretty well with shorts on EZJ, TUI and HSBA paying handsomely. I then cashed out and bought selective covid stocks. Only those with sustainable balance sheets and I only have AIM holdings now, mostly covid. My biggest holding by a long way currently is AVCT.

As I retired early I needed dividends for income so I had to trade my way back up from the initial market hit and the plan is to then buy a few selective dividend stocks once I have rode the cv19 wave. I am using cash reserves to bridge the income gap for now. Well I’d just as well spend it as watch it evaporate! Atb

T

Hi rocket, I hold a position there. If you can average in around 55-70p you should do well. I did have a large position there but sold 60% at a profit due to my concerns over newsflow and ability to get suitable patients for the trials. That concern was alleviated considerably by today’s RNS so I am now buying back in again. I’m not the most popular poster there as too many rampers, all imo. My biggest position is AVCT and I added lots over £1. They have dipped today, they could blow the socks of even ncyt. As always all imo and DYOR. Atb.

Trek

Thanks Ghia,

I am just starting to learn. I think the supply side will be an addressable need now. Be great if we get an RNS to say they have a contract..

Ps I have posted on DDDD for you.

Trek

“nebulisers will be distributed worldwide acting as first line of defence at home...perfect storm coming...”

Hi Pilgrim,

I was thinking the same so thought i’d Have a look at the supply side. I expect sng will line something up in anticipation. Not an issue for trials but given inhaler demand this will need preemptive thinking...

http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/clinical/clinical-specialties/respiratory-/asthma-inhaler-stock-supply-issues-still-ongoing-amid-covid-19-demand-surge/20040616.article

(Ps I’m a PAFC fan, pilgrims)

Trek

“75 have been doses in hospital.”

It’s very new, we were guessing before. Some may draw ask why such a low number when there are so many potential patients. Apologies if someone else has already said it but the selection criterion is very precise and I suspect that many people do not just turn up to hospital unless they are very poorly. To ‘only’ have 75 gives me great confidence that they have the right 75. DYOR.

Trek

Hi Ghia,

They raised £22m in the placing 18 Feb, it was for 18m (minimum) but was so oversubscribed they took 22m. Merck took 3.83m and the directors £2m. The bookbuild was announced and completed the same day. The warrants, always a concern, have a 5 year lock in at £1 issued on a 1 warrant for 2 share basis. No wonder it was oversubscribed!

In terms of cash runway, the last placing was 2015, which is some achievement for a biotech, but the SP has tanked from £10 days to what it’s is now. They have made it clear that any ‘further funding will be via partnering’. Punters are obviously backing Merck.

The finals will be pretty meaningless, R&D probably around 22m and they had cash before the placing but the placing and obviously the dilution changes everything. They, BoD, have a high degree of confidence in the impending readouts....

“Subject to reporting positive data from these studies, the Company believes these will provide a material validation for its approach to developing LBPs and also serve as value accretive events for Shareholders.”

Sure there is a seller at the moment, there tends to be after a placing. But they are now fully funded and can concentrate on the science....

As risky as bio’s are this is probably a good time to buy, against a seller, cashed up and news not too far off. Obviously DYOR.

Trek

Hi VanV, funny thing I never aim for round numbers at a petrol pump neither. Makes it easier to spot on a statement. Still glad we got our RNS today. Atb.

Trek

Both still waiting for news, it’ll come. Ps you shouldn’t trust anyone on a BB.

Trek

Hi VanV, very impressed that you read my posts there. I didn’t invest in AVCT until after they announced and only then for me significantly after I could see the financial pathway clearly. Atb.

PS I have bought some back today, just now, but do you know what psses me off most after this. I no longer have round numbers in my portfolio!

Trek

Thanks Ghia,

Whilst I did sell, a lot for me, i am pleased that my (and others) research was on the ball. In AIM you have to be right on top of your investments and protect capital at all costs. I made a profit and I have no problem buying back at a higher level with capital in tact and preserved going forward by more accurate news. I am sure others that don’t just post £10 tomorrow bllx also let the company know their views. Atb.

Trek