Member Info for TrekMadone

It’s slightly OT but interesting, using flu drug in Japan to treat cv19.

https://www.livescience.com/flu-drug-could-treat-coronavirus.html

Trek

A good read on ACE2, 1 day old.

https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-immune-interferon-response.html

Trek

And therein the dilemma, how do you know, ask the patient when they felt ill, even that would be flawed and short of infecting a human deliberately I don’t understand how they can draw those conclusions albeit ‘should’. Quite a significant trial imo and I think they will ascertain a medical marker of some sort as a baseline rather than time of infection which seems increasingly difficult to ascertain, even from testing. Please excuse my ignorance but I was an engineer and my knowledge of medical science doesn’t even stretch to paracetamol, another mystery! ATB.

Trek

Hi Ghia,

Thank you so much for your reply. I think the tougher questions help us understand the risks more. I now see the importance on ‘steering’ the study to give the most chance of success for the drug.

RM makes this clear in his interview with finncapp and now I have a better understanding of the significance of that. Thank you.

10mins in
“We just work ver very hard at putting the drug in the right context to make sure it gets tested properly because what we don’t want is a grey result we want the drug to get data as quickly as possible so the drug can move towards approvals as quickly as possible”

For me the word ‘context’ is key given the MIT report and RM will be well aware of both responses to interferon be hence they are working so hard on the timings.

Trek

This is why I think my question re how do they define the 24hrs was key. It needs to be early on and as pointed out only sick go to hospital. Appreciate if likes of Ghia can clarify.....

“The finding suggests that coronaviruses may have evolved to take advantage of host cells’ natural defenses, hijacking some proteins for their own use.
“This isn’t the only example of that,” Ordovas-Montanes says. “There are other examples of coronaviruses and other viruses that actually target interferon-stimulated genes as ways of getting into cells. In a way, it’s the most reliable response of the host.”
Because interferon has so many beneficial effects against viral infection, it is sometimes used to treat infections such as hepatitis B and hepatitis C. The findings of the MIT team suggest that interferon’s potential role in fighting Covid-19 may be complex. On one hand, it can stimulate genes that fight off infection or help cells survive damage, but on the other hand, it may provide extra targets that help the virus infect more cells.
“It’s hard to make any broad conclusions about the role of interferon against this virus. The only way we’ll begin to understand that is through carefully controlled clinical trials,” Shalek says. “What we are trying to do is put information out there, because there are so many rapid clinical responses that people are making. We’re trying to make them aware of things that might be relevant.”

http://news.mit.edu/2020/researchers-cells-targeted-covid-19-0422

Apologies that it’s not a ramps post but like others I have a large holding here. So be good to understand both sides.

Trek

Thanks LP,

I am sure Ghia will help. I think it is very important for the health of a bb and grateful to challenging views and clarity especially from poster like Ghia. I have never had so much invested in one company so welcome the debate. Atb to all here.

Trek

Hi Ghia,

Thanks for that I am not a clinician, but I am able to judge (I hope) other indicators. Appealing to your knowledge and apologies if this is a stupid question but I saw that and wasn’t clear on when the 24hrs was from...

“ entry criteria as confirmed viral infection within 24-48hrs.”

Is that from infection, arrival, when tested in hospital etc i wasn’t clear so the default is a variability from infection unless you can clearly define a known point as patients arrive at different stages, if that make sense. Perhaps not a question for a bb but I have read your other posts and glean that you do have an understanding of such matters and would appreciate if you can explain. Thanks in advance.

Trek

Hi LP,
A valid point re taking earlier on. I would hope that they are trialling at various points. My concern is the old adage to never underestimate the power of the placebo. It is very difficult to show statistical differentiation for new drugs but we do have a lot going for us in Fish’s trial, the recs out of China and not to be underestimated the efficacy from COPD trials. The other clue we were telegraphed was the finncap interview. Perhaps the most significant indicator yet but the market is cognisant of the risks and imo a breach through 70p next week will be another sign. Oh and don’t forget the recovery trial that could also be accretive, that may come earlier than expected as it’s open label.

Trek

AoW

“The only other comparable I can think of in the AIM resource sector, as a huge winner for its backers, was SOLG”

AAZ did it 5p to 175p and even to paying a dividend. I did well there.

I don’t post here much as imo the pathway is pretty clear and it’s just a case of picking when to buy if you haven’t yet and when to top out which imo is still a long way off. It’s not a share I have to check everyday, quite a joy! And am happy to mostly just read the RNS’s.. Atb to all.

Trek

Swindon I think you have set the tone there for many holders or returned bailers (if there is such a word). I just noticed last year’s audited finals were 31st May, had April in mind. I really can’t image we won’t be into double figures soon. I note that you still can’t load SAVE sp onto google finance yet. Ever thankful for small mercies and just noticed blue at last! I think not looking in this case helps!

Trek

You really couldn’t make it up. Bunch of useless ditherers imo and that’s all of them! What don’t they just say UK is open to the virus again! Saying no one comes in unless they pass an affirmer test is far too decisive!

Alliance News) - Screening passengers arriving at UK airports for coronavirus symptoms will be kept "under review", the Transport Secretary has said.

Grant Shapps hinted that the measure could be introduced when Britain moves into the next phase of the crisis, where tracking and tracing cases will be central.

His comments follow reports that Heathrow Airport's Chief Executive John Holland-Kaye, is urging ministers to introduce mass screening at airports.

Shapps told the daily Downing Street press conference: "As we come out of any of this and into the next phase at a future point, we will continue to keep the excellent medical and scientific advice we receive under review to say whether those procedures at airports should change."

However, he said countries including the US which locked down flights early on "have not necessarily weathered the storm of the coronavirus any better".

"Although it must be part of the plan going forward, I think it is probably more useful during the phase of test, track and trace that the health secretary was talking about yesterday."

England's Deputy Chief Medical Officer Jenny Harries said quarantining people returning from abroad becomes "less effective" once the prevalence of the disease balances across the world.

"What may well become an opportunity is when our rates are very tightly controlled and individuals are coming into the country.

"Even then it may not be quite as simple."

source: PA

Copyright 2020 Alliance News Limited.

Trek

Hi greens,

Firstly apologies to the BB for OT so please ignore this post.

I cannot be sure but I seem to remember posting my exit here, my average was 1.7 and I sold at around 1.4 for my core holding but my trading pot was well in profit so i did ok. But that said after 20 years it was a sht investment but such is the allure of the massive potential upside I will be buying back in again once (my view only) there is a reconfirmed cash route to drill. Don’t forget the BH govt would have taken such a hit from tourism that ‘any income’ will be welcome.

The shares I mention I either hold or have held but I never had any bloc. I like many saw the covid opportunity. My blue chip income stocks were in for such a battering that I sold them and bought lots of different covid stock some moved some didn’t. My main holdings now are SNG, AVCT, LID, DDDD, ERGO, YGEN and ORPH in the covid space.

Sure it’s easy to make claims with hindsight so here are three where there are hardly any posts on the BB. LID just about 6 regular posters, ERGO only me posting and my all time fav albeit graphene and not covid (yet) DCTA where I was pretty much the only poster for a year and now there are 3 regulars. You can get Dcta for a good price now as there is a small seller. It’s been really illiquid since a US multi billionaire bought 26%, after I was in. Get the finals out the way as they may have a small income dip from covid and they imo will take off due to the graphene in tarmac initiative which should coincide with infrastructure spends. Atb to you and imo bpc should crack a route to drilling this year even if they drill next spring and everyone will then be in profit.

Trek

I expect we’ll see more buys and 70p next week as treatment becomes a more logical step at this juncture and as a future option..... would Gilead buy SNG, there’s a left field thought.

FTSE drops 1.5 per cent by 86 points to 5,740 after drug trials show anti-Ebola medicine Remdesivir does not help coronavirus patients.... etc daily mail! Was on google finance link.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8252633/Coronavirus-UK-FTSE-drops-slumps-gloomy-prospects-new-drugs.html

Trek

Hi smalltrader,

Yes IMM was a painful lesson as was XEL. I was fortunate with IMM as I was in very early but I made the mistake of waiting 1 day too long. You did well to cash (most) out as for XEL I think I started with oil stocks back in early 2000 with BPC, DPL, ENC, SQX, NPE, DES and RKH (to name a few) did well. Then along came XEL, i thought it was going to the moon! Learnt lessons along the way especially with CLN’s and bondholders after all the bull the XEL team spun. I try to offer alternative views to posters and trading options where I can. I actually hate seeing PI’s loose as I know how difficult it is to make a living/profit trading. I have been very fortunate to have many more winners than losers and like you I no longer wait for D day nor do I trust the BoD’s to do exactly what they say. I buy a core now and trade some and I only buy anything I would keep in case I get stuck. I also cut a loss much quicker than before, no second chances, and will run winners much harder not worrying about if a pf looks red or blue or shows a big % profit, it’s the £ number in the total box that matters. As for a site, sorry I am nowhere near that competent you must have me confused with another.

I do get nervous being out of BPC having been in for so many years. It’s one where pretty much any PI that has looked at it can calculate the risks but not the rewards as they are potentially so high!

Re TXP, you will do well there, results should be next week, they are unique as have domestic market but I don’t expect a huge multi-bag.

I will be back in BPC soon, if for any other reason I can’t stand looking over my shoulder! There still lots more to learn. Lol! Apologies for OT and ATB to you and all here..

Ps if anyone knows or remembers Mysteron I hope he’s well it was his post that took me here in 2000ish

00

Trek

“Trek, I see you bought AVCT. With the next RNS over there should take the SP to over £1 easily. Did you buy BPC already?”

Hi smalltrader, atm I have no holdings in BPC. I have done well here topslicing and only lost a little on my last trade out. I also sold my core holding for the first time at a loss 1.7 sold 1.5 from memory. I have sold for no other reason than the landscape has changed following cv19. It’s not the companies fault.

I put the majority of my cash into AVCT, SNG, NCYT (now sold), YGEN, ORPH, LID and GGP plus a few others having sold all my FTSE100 stocks and (earlier) closed my shorts as well. Had I not done anything I would be nursing severe losses but timely action has meant I have recovered losses and am now back ahead.

Difficult bit is now knowing when to exit that play and move back. It doesn’t bother me if I pay more it’s just about capital preservation. I will offload gradually and average back in to previous holdings over time one of which is BPC.

The only stocks I have held a core. through this have been TXP, DCTA and ARB albeit all were traded. It’s been a nightmare since January keeping abreast of it and I can’t wait to just get back to some boring income stocks and the golf course. Atb one and all.

Trek

Only idea we have that he has finished selling is the up tick from 51p. May just be a massive offload and holding on to the rest. Big vol spike on 20th and 21st, we don’t know where the shares have gone. The irony is the MM may move the price up to sell the book. I know it doesn’t make sense but it’s how it seems to work. Just need to know if he’s finished. Yesterday’s vol was lower, todays should be a good indication.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/exchange-insight/trade-data.html?fourWayKey=GB00BJL5BR07GBGBXAMSM

Trek

I do tend to read what’s going on in China and blockchain as they account for a decent size of BTC trades. This innovation from China that kicks off tomorrow seems quite interesting. It’s basically how they want to build a decentralised network and centralise it. So it can’t be fake news! Also I heard that the only thing that comes out of China and lasts more than a month is coronavirus!

https://www.finder.com.au/china-government-blockchain-launching-25-april-may-integrate-eth-and-eos?utm_source=email_internal&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=campaign--gx--cryptocurrency--&utm_content=20200024&utm_term=&futm_source=email_internal~

Trek

£1

Yes a good point. I use the LSE board for historic volumes and market screener for charts. When you look at the volume it is indicating that there was increased trading activity ahead of the placing. We of course have no way of knowing if that was sell or buy side bias as the sp stayed pretty much within range until the last hour of trading yesterday. Imo that was the sign that today was going to be either good or a P&D. I opted for the former based on the uptick in volume and strong SP and chucked the rest of my trading pot at it at the death at 78p as I posted at the time.

What is interesting today is decent volume but taking out plenty of indicative sells. That really bodes well for a rerate as stock is being accumulated. Sure some traders will be selling into this but imo it’s far to early for any pull back. As I posted a close above 78p (yesterday’s resistance) was always going to open up a new channel to highs above £1. Well the chart is now showing a new resistance of 122.5p without news! I will probably sell some trading shares around 115, depending on news, with a view to starting another trade from there. It really doesn’t matter to me if I buy in higher or get less shares. My core holding stays put and my trading pot is doing very nicely in this high vix market.

For me the TFFT moment is being clear of the huge 25-30p gap that we would only visit now if the wheels came off big time as opposed to being a trading pull back which for a while looked plausible.

LSE volumes

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/exchange-insight/trade-data.html?fourWayKey=GB00BYYW9G87GBGBXASX1

Chart, note MD50 through support of 32.5 and new 122.5 resistance, also mind the huge gap up! If you switch from static to dynamic view you can see the volumes clearly. Investopedia has some good charting tips. And obviously whilst the voodoo doesn’t replace fundamentals or news it’s just another element to ones research but it is surprising how often you get a basic chart like this one, an ascending channel that follows patterns. At some point in the future it will hit a resistance and move flat in a scissors pattern a bit like going up in a lift and the getting off at a floor and moving along a corridor before hopefully taking another lift up or perhaps the stairs but atm it’s on gravity defeating supercharged lift pretty much straight up!

https://www.marketscreener.com/AVACTA-GROUP-PLC-26123500/charts/#

ATB and enjoy your day. Nothing to gain by starring at the screen today coz imo it’s only going up. Is it too early for a beer? Mmm.

Trek

Just got this on cnbc app, so sorry I can’t post link.

An estimated 13.9% of the New Yorkers have likely had Covid-19, according to preliminary results of coronavirus antibody testing released by Gov. Andrew Cuomo on Thursday.

The state randomly tested 3,000 people at grocery stores and shopping locations across 19 counties in 40 localities, Cuomo said.

“What we found so far is that the state-wide number is 13.9% tested positive for having the antibodies. What does that mean? It means these were people who were infected and who developed the antibodies to fight the infection,” he said. “They were infected three weeks ago, four weeks ago, five weeks ago, six weeks ago, but they had the virus, they developed the antibodies and they are now recovered.’”

This is a developing story. Please check back later for updates.”

No comment just interesting.

Trek

Just got this on cnbc app, so sorry I can’t post link.

An estimated 13.9% of the New Yorkers have likely had Covid-19, according to preliminary results of coronavirus antibody testing released by Gov. Andrew Cuomo on Thursday.

The state randomly tested 3,000 people at grocery stores and shopping locations across 19 counties in 40 localities, Cuomo said.

“What we found so far is that the state-wide number is 13.9% tested positive for having the antibodies. What does that mean? It means these were people who were infected and who developed the antibodies to fight the infection,” he said. “They were infected three weeks ago, four weeks ago, five weeks ago, six weeks ago, but they had the virus, they developed the antibodies and they are now recovered.’”

This is a developing story. Please check back later for updates.”

No comment just interesting.

Trek