Member Info for TrekMadone

MENA

Trek

The placing facilitates our growth. There will very likely be others in the future. Look at how FB raised money until they could get advertisers on board. I really can’t think of another company with a similar level of global reach recently from scratch, perhaps paracetamol from GSK albeit not as much a comparison but you get the picture. AVCT need to build a brand and get market share, first mover advantage is more important at this stage than the odd placings as long as the money finances growth. Just my personal take.

Trek

Not mentioned yet but we are in the new financial year. There is less pressure on insti’s to balance books atm. Lombard bought 7.71m shares on run up to April 14 so that’s at 40-50p a share range. They bought these after the placing... The RNS says

“ in response to substantial institutional interest, the Company has today conditionally raised gross proceeds of £3.75 million pursuant to a placing”

So the institutions told avacta they would support a placing. Get it done, cash gives them the right to move forward with the business plan. Given Lombard’s buying I suspect they may actually increase following the placing. We also had a distress seller in IP group who managed to exit after the placing announcement. They would have been aware of the upcoming placing. But the sp had a good run from then. They went from 15.05% to less than 3%! That’s more than just pi buying as the sp rose, it didn’t crash and volumes tell.

Look at the volume 8-16 April

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/exchange-insight/trade-data.html?fourWayKey=GB00BYYW9G87GBGBXASX1

I doubt that the subscription holders will be sellers. Why when you are wealthy and you can see a bigger prize. The boohoo guy will know this very well. So yes we are in for a bumpy ride but the underlying plan is fine one just has to be able to cope with the vix a holding that can go up and down 20% in a blink. A traders paradise if that’s your thing but the long term seems pretty good. All imo, but i’m pretty sanguine.

Trek

This is just a year end trading update, looking back and some guidance. So we have delivered an excellent set of results with the European and Asian results appeasing the US delays. Imo the market would have been concerned about the up front funding for the work we are undertaking now. My concern was pay costs and capex. But you note the first shipment has been delivered and as far as costs go “..The Group remains well funded to achieve its objectives and we are confident that our business remains robust going into the new financial year. ”.

Never say never (and funding if accretive is good) but they are cash positive. Leads me to believe we should get a decent ebitda number in the finals. They have managed the business from revenues and probably some upfront monies (that’s a guess) from ncyt to get through the initial spike and come out the other side with cash. Now that is impressive! Sometimes it’s the said unsaid in these statements and I read that as we are now well and truly revenue positive so we can do all the sexy things with a swagger including recruiting and building a US operation from testing monies. Whilst there may be some disappointment with the US a raise to fund it would not have gone down well at this stage. Financial prudence, fund and spend, steady as she goes may be boring but it’s gonna pay of big time when we get the CE. Lining up nicely! All imo.

Trek

Very good set of results. Decent nav discount of 22%. That should underpin sp. in terms of outlook whilst energy need is reducing due to covid 19 so is uranium production so there is an offset but when we get back to bau there is going to be a demand spike due to more nuclear infrastructure and demand. As for any worries about covid impact on operations....

“ Yellow Cake wishes to reassure shareholders that at present it is not adversely affected, either operationally or financially, by Covid-19. Yellow Cake benefits from an extremely strong capital position and has sufficient working capital for at least two years before needing to take any measures to access additional funds. The Company has no debt or hedges on its balance sheet.”

Pretty much sums it up.

Trek

Results Tuesday, watch out for the EBITDA number, the sales number in particular US, the revenue number as that is the takeover benchmark at 4-7x and the all important outlook. Think of the analyst as estate agents looking for a valuation!

Should be a good set of numbers removing the uncertainties, well the BoD seem to be looking forward to it!

Trek

Tiptree “I've read that too but wonder if there are no antibody tests yet, how do we know this?”

This was out Friday from mologic.co.uk, they have govt grant and grant from bill/Mel gates Foundation...

17 April 2020 – 16:00HRS
UPDATE
Mologic’s COVID-19 laboratory and point of need antibody tests have graduated from research and development, achieved design freeze and are in manufacture

We are pleased to announce that Mologic’s COVID-19 laboratory and point of need antibody tests have both graduated from research and development, achieved design freeze and are ready for manufacture.

Both COVID-19 tests have been independently assessed by the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine (LSTM) and St George’s University of London (SGUL) and are now being prepared for launch with CE mark. Mologic is proactively engaging with further independent validation groups, including the UK government, the World Health Organization, and the Africa CDC.

Clinical performance of IgG ELISA among known COVID-19 cases (PCR positive >10 days of diagnosis):

Sensitivity 99% and Specificity 98%
Total PCR positive cases tested 101
Total negative cases tested 314 (pre-2019)
Mologic will be announcing several critical milestones in the coming week, including open access publication of the full data and additional results.

The unprecedented speed of this initiative has only been possible thanks to the openness, collaboration, and effort of all laboratory, clinical, logistics, and support staff. We have been humbled by those who have volunteered to assist Mologic in any way, to help us reach this remarkable juncture in just 6 weeks.

Trek

This was from Friday, they are part govt funded and part funded by the gates foundation, if it is non sense I have no way of knowing that.

Trek

Bakky, ‘nobody has got a antibody test that is anywhere near accurate enough as yet.’

This was out Friday from mologic.co.uk

17 April 2020 – 16:00HRS
UPDATE
Mologic’s COVID-19 laboratory and point of need antibody tests have graduated from research and development, achieved design freeze and are in manufacture

We are pleased to announce that Mologic’s COVID-19 laboratory and point of need antibody tests have both graduated from research and development, achieved design freeze and are ready for manufacture.

Both COVID-19 tests have been independently assessed by the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine (LSTM) and St George’s University of London (SGUL) and are now being prepared for launch with CE mark. Mologic is proactively engaging with further independent validation groups, including the UK government, the World Health Organization, and the Africa CDC.

Clinical performance of IgG ELISA among known COVID-19 cases (PCR positive >10 days of diagnosis):

Sensitivity 99% and Specificity 98%
Total PCR positive cases tested 101
Total negative cases tested 314 (pre-2019)
Mologic will be announcing several critical milestones in the coming week, including open access publication of the full data and additional results.

The unprecedented speed of this initiative has only been possible thanks to the openness, collaboration, and effort of all laboratory, clinical, logistics, and support staff. We have been humbled by those who have volunteered to assist Mologic in any way, to help us reach this remarkable juncture in just 6 weeks.

Trek

Very good read...

https://moneyweek.com/investments/commodities/601163/the-uranium-price-is-finally-on-the-rise-heres-the-easiest-way-to?utm_campaign=money-morning-newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter

Trek

Uranium up 10% over last week. Not too shabby, Monday’s US closing price may set the tone for he week. No news out there to suggest the market is going to be flooded anytime soon!

Trek

This is from 9the April so apologies if posted before but my first read. table 2 shows interferon beta is being used as part of the global REMAP-CAP trial and is being used in combination with other drugs.

https://www.pharmaceutical-journal.com/news-and-analysis/features/the-hunt-for-an-effective-treatment-for-covid-19/20207883.article?firstPass=false

Trek

Hi Lifesgoody,

“Trek, I don’t understand why you are on this BB if you’re not invested? Who would waste their time being negative about a company they are not invested in.”

My view is I may take a position here, BB can be a useful part of ones research before one invests. I posted my financial assessment based on fact and if you look back you will see up to the Mologic post (which I note doesn’t get ticked up incase people notice it but hey I thought it was useful) every post I have made has been in a response to others posting about me or a view of my post. I hope that explains.

Trek

Hi Seible,

“you think they are that dumb not to be aware for the whole day of the "solution"?”

I didn’t say or think they are dumb, I speculated that they were unaware. I have seen much worse in business but never would think people of being ‘dumb’; misguided, uninformed, over emotional as over leveraged perhaps but never dumb.

Trek

Seible, thank you for sharing your factual research. I can only speculate that this is so quickly moving they were unaware of the release at 16:00 on Friday. Understandable imo but I am ‘sure’ we will get more details from odx this week.

Trek

Hi solstice,

Apologies our posts cross. That’s a good link. Clearly states the finance from March. Be nice if ODX monies was as clear. atb

Trek

Hi solstice,

That is correct but the news alert is from Friday, perhaps they had enough cash to get a wiggle on, I can only speculate but the alert I take on face value. Atb.

Trek

Hi seeker,

“that’s for lab based, just watched there CNN video from 2 days ago, and now they ‘hope’ to delve a home test version !!!!!”

Quite a valid point can you post the link saying it’s lab test and the cnn link, actually I have the cnn app so I can find that one myself but the other link will be helpful. Thanks

Trek

Hi seeker, it just says point of need...

“point of need
In distribution operations, a physical location within a desired operational area designated by the geographic combatant commander or subordinate commander as a receiving point for forces or materiel, for subsequent use or consumption.”

https://www.definitions.net/definition/point+of+need

You have to make your own mind up what that means and note more info will be forthcoming in the coming weeks.

Trek

May be of interest to some here.

17 April 2020 – 16:00HRS
UPDATE
Mologic’s COVID-19 laboratory and point of need antibody tests have graduated from research and development, achieved design freeze and are in manufacture.

We are pleased to announce that Mologic’s COVID-19 laboratory and point of need antibody tests have both graduated from research and development, achieved design freeze and are ready for manufacture.

Both COVID-19 tests have been independently assessed by the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine (LSTM) and St George’s University of London (SGUL) and are now being prepared for launch with CE mark. Mologic is proactively engaging with further independent validation groups, including the UK government, the World Health Organization, and the Africa CDC.

Clinical performance of IgG ELISA among known COVID-19 cases (PCR positive >10 days of diagnosis):

Sensitivity 99% and Specificity 98%
Total PCR positive cases tested 101
Total negative cases tested 314 (pre-2019)
Mologic will be announcing several critical milestones in the coming week, including open access publication of the full data and additional results.

The unprecedented speed of this initiative has only been possible thanks to the openness, collaboration, and effort of all laboratory, clinical, logistics, and support staff. We have been humbled by those who have volunteered to assist Mologic in any way, to help us reach this remarkable juncture in just 6 weeks.

https://mologic.co.uk/

I suspect UK funded but exact details not specified. But they do have funding from Gates foundation. Here’s the evidence.

https://www.marketscreener.com/news/Sherlock-Biosciences-and-Mologic-Establish-Strategic-Partnership-to-Develop-Instrument-free-Molecu--29481166/

Trek