Member Info for TrekMadone

I just looked in at He1 as I saw on the sidebar here ‘production facilities’.

Can you believe some think they have started to build production facilities!

They recently raised 8m for EWT and general working capital. A module in the US is 12.5m. It will likely be double that in TZ!

I don’t think there is any doubt that producible helium will eventually be found and at scale. It’s just a question of how it’s eventually financed and even if it’s He1 that will be the ultimate beneficiary.

For sure after the EWT they will need a lot more money and or a JV to realise the asset!

But for sure there is no point posting there without the requisite number of rocket emoji’s!

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Trek

I don’t hold any atm just looked in from a trading perspective.

How can HE1 be building production facilities when in the US a modular facility costs £12.5m. They don’t have the cash.

10th June RNS, HE1 successfully raised £8m for….

“ The net proceeds of the Fundraise will be utilised to complete an Extended Well Test ("EWT") on Itumbula West-1 to evaluate commercial flow rates of helium prior to the development phase, as well as providing additional funds for operational contingency.”

So where on earth did you see ‘HE1 are building production facilities’. Link would be helpful please.

Good luck with your top up and the three that ticked you up!

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Trek

As an ex trades union committee member there were times when one was equally appalled in other camps.

‘Workers unite you’ve nothing left to loose but your trains (chains)!’

I think Trumps camp must be even more interesting’. God and guns! Eh!

Humanity never ceases to disparage!

Trek

Hi Curious,

Re the fall. It’s due imo to possibly one insti selling down and that has spooked a few PI’s that were either in early to take some profit or frightened some of those that now see red into selling. See my post 26th June 10:23 for holdings details and best guess!

I take your point about the second drill but they actually ‘have’ enough cash for 3 drills and the cos across the first two is actually now more favourable. I think the SP would have come back at some point anyway.

For interest I am not in the no dilution camp. Not to say that it’s a bad thing rather I would not be surprised to see a couple mill raised for working capital with a higher SP ahead of the first drill unless we see another finance deal which I would rule that out.

ATM the bod know full well the sp ‘is undervalued’. They are doing their best with comms but it still comes down to buys and sells due to the crappy London ALGO’s.

There is no reward for a status of just hold even if 80% of investors hold the price gets moved to attract trades else nobody gets paid. We need this seller to clear even though it’s just a relatively small amount then the sp shenanigans can continue at a higher level!

Yes Rudyard is a bargain. Hopefully it’s a reflection of either mates rates or symbiosis as opposed to anything else. That the owner wanted some shares at the IPO rate and to become aligned with the companies exploration is encouraging but we don’t know.

Good luck

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Trek

“ The issue remains whether Hex will be able to meet any of it. And we won't begin to know that for at least another few months.”

Rhetorically isn’t that the point of investing here? Look at the CPR, the BoD, the Geo, the financials and location to try and give yourself the most optimum odds of a good rate of return.

A little early money could actually do better than more later less risky money.

One can hedge the odds by going in big before and derisking or going in smaller and adding more after. Or a bit of both.

It’s not just a binary play based on a few months ahead. There’s plenty of opportunities along the way whether they find helium the first time or not.

Lots of ways to make good returns here as well as watching from the sidelines and waiting for a discovery. Which I think will eventually come.

HE1 was one of my best ever investments yet they have no commercial helium yet. I no longer hold but wish holders there well.

Good luck.

Usual caveats

Trek

Very sensitive to interest rates.

EPS down substantially due to debt 2.81 v 4.92 as cost of borrowings have soared to 7.25 from 5.64m. Income down 11.6 from 19.5

There’s no room here to increase dividends. Any cash will be needed for re-investment/debt pay down.

Things aren’t so rosey below the headlines albeit the business is doing v well given the climate.

IMO Makes Duke a very good recovery play from around this SP. Stock should rerate well once trajectory of rate reductions becomes more aggressive.

Usual caveats

Trek

Off Topic.

Well we know about the chips act, Nvidia, Intel, data centres etc but I was reading about spaceX today. It has been given a value of $210bn!

It’s just lateral thinking but it will need security of supply for growth and it uses loads of Helium!

‘ Elon Musk’s SpaceX has been valued at about $210bn based on the value of insider shares being sold in a tender offer, Bloomberg reports.

SpaceX will sell insider shares at $112 apiece in a tender offer, a higher-than-expected price, that boosts the value of Elon Musk’s space and satellite company above its previous valuation of $180bn.

SpaceX is considered one of the most profitable start-ups in the world, Bloomberg says, adding: "The firm, which was founded in 2002 by Tesla Inc CEO Elon Musk, is one of the most prominent private manufacturers of spacecraft and satellites. It also offers satellite-based internet services through its Starlink subsidiary.

"The firm also holds a slew of contracts from Nasa to provide spacecraft and crew equipment for orbital missions and support for the International Space Station."

Earlier this month, SpaceX recorded the first fully successful test flight of its mighty space rocket Starship, when it splashed down successfully in the Indian Ocean.”

I think we will see exponential growth in the space sector fuelled by a race with China and Russia. All needs secure helium which unsubstitutional!

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Trek

Drilling Rudyard first doesn’t make sense imo.

Sends wrong message to market, changing plans.

Both are fully financed

Iggy is bigger prize.

Site is being readied, licensing, environmentals etc all have start dates

Drill and flow Iggy.

Then drill easier quicker cheaper target, Rudyard.

Even if flow Rudyard still need to do offtake deals etc

Because Rudyard has flowed it means can start deals EARLIER with min known rates for Rudyard then add to it with the deeper as a bonus.

Iggy is the biggy!

Balls out first then build from there!

Usual caveats

Trek

Insti Holdings.

Refer to listing doc page 314

https://wp-helix-2024.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2024/04/Helix-Admission-document-final.pdf

Edale

10 Apr - listed with 3,750,000 shares (3.06%). SP at time 10p - in IPO

20 Jun - 20th Jun reduced to 3,250,000 shares (2.65%) Sp approx 23p

Oberon

11 Apr - 13,962,821 shares (11.42%). SP at time 10p. They were not named in the listing doc so shares must have been ‘subscribed for pursuant to the placing’.

13 Jun - 13th Jun increase to 14,747,911 shares (12.065%). SP approx 24p

17 Jun - 17th Jun reduced to 14,616,809 shares (11.967%). SP approx 24p

Premier Miton

Premier Miton didn’t issue an IPO holding RNS but hold…

9th April - listed 4,125,000 shares ( 3.4%). SP at time 10p. In IPO.

—-

It is possible that an insti, e.g. Edale could be selling down. If so the SP will be reduced to encourage buyers. The insti will place shares with a broker & set a min sp that they will accept and the broker will sell stock. Reducing price as necessary to clear the order. As pretty much all the trades posted are ‘O’ type they will show as buys.

Once this stock clears, and it will, as it’s being bought, the SP should rerate back up significantly given the apparent value disconnect and impending newsflow.

This is a common event for companies post IPO or a placing. It gives others an opportunity to buy in or top up.

If you can work out what is likely going on you don’t panic or even use events to average in ones buys.

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Trek

Hi O&W,

I replied to you on HEX. Let me know if I can help anymore.

Edale selling down could be an opportunity to average in.

Good luck.

Usual caveats

Trek

“I don't do charts”

Oh yes you do. What is one of the first things you or anyone else does when they buy or sell a stock. They look at the chart.

You then consciously make a decision based on the pattern that lays before you.

To to say you don’t do charts is statement made from not appreciating the range of data in front of you.

To say you do not understand the Technical Analysis would be more appropriate albeit still an oxymoron as you do it subconsciously. But I think you get the point around data and its various interpretations.

Good luck whatever your position.

Trek

“ Can you please comment on the reduced holding under 3% someone one going stealth for the future selloff ?‘

Well Edale are in the money here and are selling into liquidity. It’s their MO, absolute returns. Fair play. That is not necessarily a reflection on the stock as much as a reflection on liquidity and whatever else they have going on.

http://www.edalecapital.com/our-philosophy/

I see this as an opportunity if you accept the data from the BoD and the potential here. Here’s an example from my first 10 bagger, VRS. It helped me build my ‘trading career’.

Back in 2018 one of the seed investors Miton, held a dominant position in the stock. I took a position at 13p and kept adding according to my then views. I ‘only’ had around 5k from memory. Thankfully ARB and a few others supercharged my pot!

Anyways, it went to 22p and Miton were selling aggressively and it came down to, from memory, below my average. Then suddenly boom! I mean a mother of booms. The stock went vertical!

Pulled back along the way and went again. I sliced at 150p! And it kept going to near 200p. I then sold out as it retraced to 150p because deals etc didn’t manifest and it’s now a basket case because the bod for numerous reasons didn’t deliver.

But the point is Miton selling back when they did had absolutely no bearing on the prospects of the stock. It was their MO. And the stock rallied significantly when the insti cleared based on balance of buys v sells. That had given folk an opportunity to pick up stock that otherwise would have been more expensive.

I could give other examples but the point is just because a holder is selling it doesn’t always mean things don’t add up. It can also be an opportunity.

In this instance I don’t believe it is a reflection of prospects of HEX.

For balance when Alister sold at AVCT, another 10 bagger, I didn’t believe the reasons and sold a considerable amount of stock!

I have many other real experiences, it’s boring!

The point is it’s up to investors to assimilate the data, including the selling; and at the end of the day make up their own minds and manage their own risk.

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Trek

I think the only one’s that would be surprised at a t/o here are the uninvested.

We have been calling it for months. Personally I’d rather have my +10% yield paid bi-annually with a nice capital gain.

I picked GLO for a takeover and invested heavily as it was underpinned by yield and it went way too cheap. Would need +650p here to be remotely interested as imo the stock can get there itself and drag the divi up!

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Trek

Hi O&W,

There is plenty of helium there.

“ Operations are focused on their flagship Ingomar Dome Project, a large-scale closure on the highly productive ‘Montana Helium Fairway’ where historic drilling has already identified gas in all target reservoir horizons.”

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/LON:HEX/HeLIX-Exploration-PLC

The question is weather they can tap a trap that can deliver commercial flow rates.

Theoretically that is possible because Avanti and Pulsar Helium have flowed from similar plays. So has Rudyard. But nearness is no guarantee.

However, drilling stacked horizons gives you greater cos. Our targets are prinary, Flathead, secondary, Ansden and Charles and tertiary precumbrian basement.

Each has potential trap and seal from seismics and analogous plays.

This is probably the highest realistic cos I have seen. It’s actually termed an appraisal well.

Rather than me type it all out badly see page 60 for independent CPR and page 40 for risk factors

https://wp-helix-2024.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2024/04/Helix-Admission-document-final.pdf

Now to mitigate downside….

1. Derisk ahead of TD or flow depending on your appetite. Obviously you have to pick your price point.

2. What’s left is still on risk but can be mitigated by factoring in an extended or additional drill. So if it costs £2.5m for a drill because they don’t nail the first one add on extra for working capital say 3.5m then dilute the mcap and your amount invested accordingly.

As the market is brutal I would factor in a 50% downside risk for what’s left. But you still have excellent upside chances from the second drill on the dome and of course Rudyard, the original second drill, which has flowed helium before.

3. You can also mitigate downside by reinvesting anything you took out or left on the sidelines to offset dilution.

So one can trade around events using a pot or of course one can go all in with a punt.

Investing is easy just 2 rules

Rule 1 protect your capital

Rule 2 see rule 1!

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Trek

Hi Lordloadsoffolly

You are correct.

“ Low acquisition cost: of $250k paid as $100k in cash and $150k in shares with an additional equity issue as introducer fee”

My bad I was typing across from memory. Thanks.

Good churn today! May even finish level!

No idea about your other question. It usually comes down to price. Could be that demand and price wasn’t the same back in the 60’s and the later effort could be a multitude of reasons. Atb.

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi Blu,

I wouldn’t worry about the fee shares at 10p. ‘It isn’t that many!’ 😜

Trek

Why surprised at the lack of SP movement…..YET.

There are likely still big holders selling half on a double. You can often only do that into liquidity events like news. Watch the volume as well as the sp!

If you have 2 million shares then sell half on a double by placing 1m with the broker. They will gradually sell them down. So sells look like buys. But churn is what matters. Hence volume.

So watch the mcap as well. This is still way undervalued according to brokers not me.

So if it’s cheap then that should be reflected in the terms…

Well look at them..

Obviously a seller of land would want cash. They took $100k in cash and $250k in stock but to get that stock they had to accept a market price. 22p based on the 20 day vwap. That’s imo a fair deal.

But why stock and not all cash? Because they want to align themselves with the upside opportunity in HEX. Furthermore, they agree extra terms. Hex gotta drill again within 3 years to deliver 2 earning wells.

So what seems a give away is actually a very good shared objective. Both hold stock both want production. The vendor has the land with proven flowing helium we have the operational expertise.

The vendor benefits from sp appreciation and hex keep the production revenue. 100%! No vendor royalty! That is extremely good news and has been completely overlooked by many!

The more you read this the more favourable it seems. Symbiosis between vendor and shareholders!

Whilst there is no lock in terms I doubt our new shareholder will be doing the usual aim flip once stock is listed on 28th June. All the ‘usual shenanigans’ would be contrary to those aforementioned aligned objectives.

So try not to be surprised. Try and figure out what is happening and what is about to play out.

People will cotton on to the mcap and the profit taking which will take part at each l stage of the journey. This will imo go through 30p in time.

Enjoy!

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Trek

Watch ROAD tro, if vol pushes it to twelve could go +14p.

Warning though it’s not very liquid. I have traded it before.

Huge assets though and intrinsic value worth way more than Mcap + dire yours in higher if you get stuck!

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Trek

Hi Blue,

Vendor shares and fee shares will list on 28th June.

The vendor consideration shares 510k are at 22p so doubt they would sell then anyway.

I think some large holders have placed a derisking sell with their broker who sells into liquidity.

If you have say 2 million shares and wanna sell half. Easiest way is to hand them a million and say sell above 22p whenever there’s liquidity. As it’s O type trades it will just print as normal buys on the system.

Matters not it’s all part of the story.

Usual caveats

Trek

‘Hex shake down’

Possibly some larger positions selling into news liquidity. Free carry zone now for some.

They will clear soon. Not that many shares. Management are locked in for two years.

I am more interested in the mcap atm which points to still being cheap at this stage.

Usual caveats

Trek