Member Info for TrekMadone

See FT headlines….

UK £ and political stability - Blackrock move from neutral to overweight on UK stocks.

Should bode well for the undervalued insurance sector imo.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c978jrzmz6do

Trek

Link

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c978jrzmz6do

Trek

See FT headlines….

UK £ and political stability - Blackrock move from neutral to overweight on UK stocks.

Should bode well for the undervalued insurance sector imo.

Trek

Transaction dated yesterday. Someone forgot to post it!

I read the Oakbloke’s article and thought he drew on some good comparisons and his calculations of the dilution was ‘reassuring’ as I hadn’t yet done it.

But there are, as I posted before, many unknowns with the transaction. SP in particular which is normally based on a VWAP period preceding the deal + discount. I think allowing 1030p will probably be ballpark.

I see this as adding even more comfort to the security of dividends over a longer term with the best in class decline rate.

No two ways about it though this has been a pretty sht share for most but today’s price action is either looking forward or reflective of shorts closing. But isn’t that the same thing.

My top ups below 1050 have proved yet again rather timely here but I have enough now.

Adding these additional assets ‘accretively’ underlines my personal short term target of £15.

I to think this will move exclusively to the NYSE irrespective of the impending market changes to make London more attractive. Money is still leaving London and DEC’s home, now that it has met the entry criteria, is surely the US.

Hence my question ‘if that would mean shorts need to close’. I genuinely can’t find an answer with the usual searches.

Anyways luck to all and let’s hope everyone see’s some return to profit soon.

Usual caveats

Trek

Hi Pompey,

Points 2 and 3; and this is conjecture as one can never prove it from the outside looking in. But it replicates the trading patterns we had after listing with lots of round number delayed intraday prints.

I suspected then that they were buys matched from a pool of stock. We never had any end of day UT. It was likely Hereford matching trades who had to sell following the IPO.

Once that ended the stock popped significantly.

We have now had a similar trading pattern. This time it may be Edale that are continuing to sell. So any buys are matched from their pool and printed late as there just aren’t that many shares slushing around here!

Today we have just had our first end of day uncrossed trade (UT) albeit only 859 shares. I wouldn’t say that the seller has definitely exited but it is notable that this is the first uncrossing for a long time.

As Edale are below 3% (notifiable threshold) we won’t be told that they are out. But should we see a larger UT and an end to the delayed intraday prints it may be an indication that the overhang has cleared.

The stock should then pop if the same proportion of buys remain as a higher share price will at some point be needed to entice others to take profits.

It’s all pretty interesting to watch the patterns. You can download the trades into Excel from the LSE site here using the download tab.

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/HEX/helix-exploration-plc/trade-recap

Notice that the closing price today is 25.60p which is the price of the UT trade not 24.56p which is currently shown on google finance. Google finance shows the last reported trade.

You can also see on the link that we are traded on the SETSqx exchange which is a hybrid between automatic trading and market maker intervention. So given the few shares here one can expect the usual games when liquidity is tight to entice selling.

Hence if you are unsure how the market looks it’s best to run dummy trades rather than just relying on the displayed SP.

Enjoy the ride!

Usual caveats

Trek

There are three trading signs to watch out for here.

1. A TR1

2. An end to the intraday one hour ish delayed trades

3. The first UT EOD print.

But the idea of trading is to buy before the signs manifest and if so inclined sell into the realisation.

Then of course there is the real news.

Rig mobilisation due soon which opens the door to a lots of newsflow and not to rule out more ‘left field news’.

We expected the unexpected here before and got the amazing Rudyard deal.

I am now also expecting the unexpected again likely on any commercial find. Something that looks like a JV, customer offtake agreement and/or debt facility.

So when one factors in the trading tea leaves ahead of the news, and peer comparisons, it makes for an extremely compelling buy. Hence I added more again. This is by far now my largest position ever!

IMO one only spots opportunities like this every couple of years.

Tick Tock!

Usual caveats

Trek

Something may be cooking. 15 buys within minutes of each other.

Also previously on SEPL….sp pulled back looking at 190 w times intra day only to be bought up.

Defo smoke rings in them there hills!

Trek

eqt. deal for £2m to close on friday. sp on it ****! watch the spread but could pop onto your tracker soon tro! won’t take much to bounce it! in buy thursday sell friday/monday could be on. black or red though!

i am toying with slicing msmn to play a couple of bouncers. i don’t mind doing it with winnings so if they go south.

itm has also caught my eye to ride the politic but i don’t like the chart there atm. 50p was the buy so will watch on that one for a pullback.

usual caveats

trek

EXR looking bouncy bouncy

But for beer money I am watching ROAD. Fingers are a hovering!

Trek

Change in divi policy at DLG as well Mick - gone to 60% of profit. I have traded it in the past. Expecting some consolidation in the sector soon. Some insurers are way too expensive as can’t match.

MSMN has a little pop again at the bell. I have a few at 0.034 wish I’d bought more but only had change to put in.

HE1 I don’t hold and would stay well away. Surprised at the last run. I read the RNS differently to the market and expected a pull back but such is the power of the herd! I guess time will tell.

For a longer term play and also to ride the emerging green energy security agenda here and in the US/ME I pointed my son to IES. He picked up £800 worth. Just getting him going in his pf!

All his other stocks are US listings but I am pretty confident IES will do very well especially after the huge placing which now looks to have rolled. For sure others have had cheaper but under the 23p is an excellent entry imo.

DEC - great aquisition announced today and the seller wanted some DEC stock! Seriously up on that one and my other income plays after the recent run with some nice divi’s as well!

GL

Usual caveats

Trek

This one has been on my watchlist since the huge placing. Not been able to buy as tied up elswhere but my son managed to get a few at 21p after I tipped these to him along with some others to get him going with his pf.

I don’t think £800 will move the dial on the SP! But I am pretty confident to spend some of his money for him!

Lots of news to come and cash sorted for the foreseeable a great longer term investment here.

GLA

Trek

Excellent news on the acquisition. I would have liked more detail around the costs but I expect that will come on completion.

Interesting that the seller wanted exposure to DEC with US shares.

Here’s a question for GG.

Perhaps you could ask your bosses, bosses, bosses, bosses, bosses boss who may know someone that knows a proper boss a question for the BB?

That is should DEC delist from UK for an exclusive US listing do the shorters have to close their UK positions and start again or can the arbitrage those shorts across.

Run along now but try not to startle! TIA

Usual caveats

Trek

“ even GG can't come up with a reason to berate DEC any more and is reduced to reheating tired and already discredited crap!?”

Well I wish he would he’s been a great asset here for helping top up. Even followed me to PHNX and helped there. I offered him HEX but he turned down a +100% gain now and imo there’s still another 50% to come there short term and that’s for starters!

Still at least I topped up here with a couple more trades under 1050 and am ready for more. Do your best GG! I would like some before the squeeze! lol!

Trek

“ this oughta be shown,on our main tv news channels,to shame them..imo”

Only if it’s in Gaza. Ukraine is falling off the end of the top BBC news banners. Not according to the public but just according to the BBC journo’s and the vociferous minority! Not saying Gaza shouldn’t be on the news but the balance is miles off!

Trek

Will be infrastrure next tro. Silly valuations. Labour will hit the pension fund investment button soon.

I have plans!

Trek

Looks like smart money selling he1 and buying hex and Msmn now. Both just turned on a six pence!

Usual caveats

Trek

Amazed at the bounce there. Surely more dilution is on the way irrespective of the EWT. Buyers chasing the rise. Smart money imo offloading ready to have another trade later but wtfdik!

Just looked at RNS over at ECHO. Corker! CEO doing a great job there trying to turn it around by the balance sheet and CLN’s is an absolute car crash! Doesn’t mean there’s not money to be made there from a trade. For the brave only!

TXP on the move for those that wanna jump on again!

Usual caveats

Trek

‘ Boeing will plead guilty to a criminal fraud charge tied to the 737 Max crashes, months after a near-catastrophe in January prompted the Justice Department to revisit a 2021 settlement that protected Boeing from prosecution.

The plea deal, outlined in a filing late Sunday, requires the approval of a federal judge. Under the deal, Boeing would pay a $243.6 million fine, equal to the amount it paid in the 2021 settlement.

“We can confirm that we have reached an agreement in principle on terms of a resolution with the Justice Department, subject to the memorialization and approval of specific terms,” Boeing said in a statement.

This is breaking news. Check back for updates.“

Prison sentence? Nope capitalists are allowed to break the law if they get paid so well!

Emissions frauds

Pollution

Horizon

Contaminated blood

The list goes on. But don’t speak out against it as it will cost you your job!

Trek

Looking through the RNS 11th June. PSS had exercised rule 9 waiver. The holding RNS said the crossing was the 1/7/24 and notified on 3/7/24. This is becaus that was when the placing shares were listed. So any bid which I think is likely would be in 6 months time.

Usual caveats

Trek

A takeover here has always been on investors minds. I remember when PSS first started buying. DCTA seemed an obvious fit for Nant. I am surprised it’s taken so long for PSS to increase his holding. DCTA has a basket of tech and patents that will fit with Nant and Nant can accelerate the growth here significantly. Setcar could be sold off to soften the blow and Nant keep the Grafysorber patents/royalties.

Anyways that’s all conjecture for now. If PSS crosses 30% then he has to announce his intentions either to bid or not bid. He doesn’t have to bid. But that would rule out a bid for 6 months (page 8)

Rather than me hash it all up it’s probably best if one reads page 13 and 14 for the 30% rule. Mardler, post below, is correct re price.

https://www.burges-salmon.com/-/media/files/publications/open-access/guide-to-public-takeovers-in-the-uk.pdf

I used to hold a lot of these and did well from 50p ish and took part in one of the rights issues. Guilio always tried to do the right thing by investors. I sold out when Italy got hit with covid. It took ages to offload.

My last foray was just a few shares that I had to sell to get a pot in HEX. Even then I had to split the stock up here to sell and there were several days I couldn’t offload any. Today one can sell ok.

Having cut my cloth on smallcaps and got away with it! I bought divi stocks and I am reluctant to sell any as I have low averages and achieved my main objectives.

However, ever now and then I spot an opportunity so will have a go.

I have always had a soft spot for DCTA I really like the company and its ethos. I knew it was the real deal better than VRS and that has proved the case.

The price now is absolute madness but that’s the market. I wouldn’t blame PSS for picking this up at the all time lows for what will be pocket money to him.

Good luck to holders especially those in higher.

Hope you get some cash back one way or another!

Usual caveats

Trek