Member Info for ThetaDecay

"Certain titles not meeting internal expectations"

Titles not meeting internal expectations is normal in the indie game industry, they published titles that have exceeded expectations earlier this year too. The gaming industry boom from the lockdowns have come down hard this year and pretty much all video game companies are re-rating their expectations on sales.

"Too slow to address project overspend. Delays with cost cutting initiatives at the TM17 Games label"

Correct and thats exactly the reason the share got de-rated after the last RNS, the costs have been cut now and the impairments shouldn't continue for long.

"A number of titles launched and under development are under review. Impairments expected in consequence."

Titles launched are under review? Such as? As for under-development, good, most indie companies like TBLD, DEVO, FDEV are reviewing their catalogue and cutting back on titles they believe won't sell well, its under their cost management initiatives (I think with a quick google you will find mostly all game developers and publishers are cutting jobs and putting titles under review). But the thing with Team17, they are a great publisher, they have a track record of publishing at least one mass-selling indie title each year, they mostly backed out of game development so they don't have the costs and losses involved of developing flops like FDEV. On top of that, they are actually profitable and will stay profitable. Once the games industry picks up again, TM17 will be one of the winners to pick.

Agree completely with that post TurtleHead.

TBLD and FDEV are basket cases with unpopular catalogues. Devolver Digital on the other hand is fundementally the best indie company in the world in terms of their games popularity, reach and fanbase, the share itself is a completely different matter (they are using British investors are funding pigs) although at somepoint there has to be a turnaround on DEVO.

Buying more TM17 today, fair value is £2.5 and better years ahead.

Why is this stock struggling so much?

To me this looks like a great buy at this level but why is it continuing to drop when they are expanding successfully, with constant large corporate bookings in a high-growth industry, are there any risks i'm not aware of here? Seems to have minimal debt, on track to turn profitable, is the market really waiting for confirmation?

I'm nibbling here, there are some real bargains on AIM where solid growth companies are getting seemingly punished for no reason, at first glace this seems to be another case of that.

Teddy

Might be a trade for sure but fundementally Frontier as a big avoid, did a deep-dive last year and came to that conclusion.

Their Foundry business which was supposed to mimic Team17's success as a publisher was a complete failure and they couldn't even publish a single mildly successfull title. Their core games are failing too, F1 Manager is extremely niche and will never get the same fanfare as other management games, F1 Manager 2023 utter failure has slapped them in the face that they can't release stuff like that every year, it just won't sell. The dev team themselves are solid but management has completely destroyed the company. A turnaround for FDEV would be something amazing.

FDEV has held back TM17 for a while, since Frontiers' business model and gaming catalogue fell apart. It gives us all a great chance to buy a solid growth company here that doesn't really have many competitiors and has a global audience you would only see at AAA gaming companies.

I seriously believe this stock will beat its ATH at some point and have been using the general rock bottom sentiment here to load up. Director buy with £200,000 of his own money just further proves the disjointed risk/reward here for the long term.

At the end of the day, Team17 has been and still is publishing top quality indie games that get global outreach, very few companies can claim this. In 2023 alone, they published games like Dredge that has won several nominations for Global Indie Game of Year, has 20,000+ overwhelmingly positive reviews on steam.

The company is profitable and has great prospects when the gaming market picks up again.

Big overreaction imo. Seems some people are scared its the next FDEV but anyone with knowledge in the industry knows thats not the case. Still might drift lower next week but personally feel its a great time to accumulate

I bought the dip. This isn't FDEV. Team17 is still aiming to beat revenue expectations. It has solid royalties, solid Indie development teams and good fan following.

I'm going to accumulate at these prices.

Chesh

Its not necessarily a negative either, its just not always positive. I've seen majority retail buys on dips like this before, sometimes it is the bottom, sometimes it drifts lower and you notice majority sells on the way down. Retail investors can flushed. I also ask myself, if over 2 days retail are majority buying 57% and 75% (today) of the shares, then who is selling?

Oh its most certainly retail and its also not necessarily a positive thing. Its been one of the highest traded UK stock for 2 days with majority buys for retail:

https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/daily-trading-flash-10-most-traded-shares-20-november-2023-ii529921

https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/daily-trading-flash-10-most-traded-shares-21-november-2023-ii529938

Sadly not the news we were all hoping for here. Funding will be needed for further drilling considering the delays and now shareholder dilution looks almost certain (and it could be brutal depending on the SP price at the time).

I've sold my swing trade on a loss sadly but I still own a small core holding. I see the lack of price catalysts this year now and expect the SP to slowly drift down once volatily subsides. I will probably buy back in when we are once again close to drilling results and funding has been raised.

0.8% Helium shows without getting gas samples seems very positive to me and shows the long term potential.

Risk increased but very likely temporary. I am still in from low 5's and will continue to accumulate at lower levels until we get the good or bad news that is inevitable even under delays. I see no issue with funding if results go to plan, I also don't care about a second drilling this year if Tai is a success.

~TD

I belive the latest developments have de-risked Tai-3 considerably and the share price has not yet responded. If there is positive news in the coming weeks, I would expect the share price to get some significant volume into which they can, potentially, get some more funding for the next stages (and I can derisk somewhat). I am aware of the risks involved in highly volatile low-cap aim stocks, especially early stage mining/gas companies but something about this has got my risk/reward senses tingling.

I like HE1 under 6p, gives me time to accumulate. I'm having a punt on this one.