Member Info for ThetaDecay

Stanley, I don't know why are you arguing with me, I understand Whey is not a key component but its still something that has had a negative effect on the overall Group margins in the last few years. I've already explained why Pets has better margins. THG has not increased prices with the increased costs unlike APN. If you want to compare with APN, even though that is nutrition competitor, not beauty, APN has much better brand positioning and is seen as the premium and better quality.... THG Beauty has a significant portion of Revenues as RESALE DRIVEN, so its third party white-labels, so margins are naturally going to be better than own-brand products, and especially popular own-brands that APN owns that can easily increase prices with costs and have less promotional spending needs. Its like comparing Iphones to Xaomi phones.

Beauty margins are going up though? Even with the global destocking and high promotional spending, THG is absorbing the cost increases instead of passing it to consumers. So part of the reason why margins are low is the reason they are #1 brand in the area, because of the massive amount of advertising/promotional expenditure for each sale hasn't gone down like we usually see in large companies respective to their industry.

I'm not happy with how this company has been run, the chairman and board are beyond useless, they could be explaining how they are protected from tariffs and will benefit from falling commodity prices as a result but instead are just silent.

PETS has a better margin because of their vet and grooming services they do in store. Greggs is a staple and baked goods have always had decent margin. APN's margin is going to struggle since they announced building a new manufacturing site in US due to recent tariffs. APN is going to be effected a lot more than THG by the tariffs. THG margins depend somewhat on Whey price too which is coming down (-10% Euro per ton, -8% $ per ton) since March 28th. So this global turmoil caused by tariffs is actually going to improve THG margin.

I doubt the EU will be able to agree on a response since you have so many diverging opinions. Italy doesn't want a tariff response at all, France wants to tax US services, Germany wants the Auto taxes gone. There isn't a clear line here, and I see more chance of towards a deal rather than co-ordinated reciprocal tariffs from EU.

In terms of UK, Starmer will never concede on Chlorinated US chicken, even though Australia/Canada accept it and we take in Chlorinated salads and pork but just from the Labour point of view, they won't concede that. I think Trump admin is more concerned about our Digital Services Tax that we implemented a few years back on US businesses. They will want that removed and see that as a tariff, but again Labour cannot do it due the negative optics and the terrible fiscal budget situation.

Worse situation would be a deal with EU but UK is left in the dark, unlikely but a terrifying possibility. I still think we are in a better place than EU currently but time will tell.

Maybe part of the reason is APN has a single production factory in Liverpool for all their goods whereas THG has multiple logisitics and production bases around the world, meaning margins of course are going to be much lower.

Yeah wonder why its dropping.... Oh wait the whole market is crashing 6%+ with global equities turning into a bear market.

Not so wild really is it?

Doubt it. We are exiting a 15 year + bull market, now is not the time to double down even for MM. Historical P/E's are still way above average for US stocks and I can see SPY hitting 400 minimum. Even if UK plc is much more attractively valued, it will not go up while global markets are in a bear. Wait 6 months to a year and see what the situation is.

German DAX hit a circuit breaker, shares stopped trading -7.5%. Horror show. Orange Monday, cheers Trump

I topped up some of my position that I sold a few weeks back. I was going to wait for results but going to do a small topup now. and then if results go as expected will add more. Debt refinancing is great news, if they can reduce leverage from 2.2x to 1.5x over the next 6 months we could see buybacks within the year, allowing MM to increase his stake in a shareholder friendly way.

MA will want to keep increasing his stake at this price, a lot of synergies with his new purchase of XXL Sport and Sports Direct expansion in Asia.

I agree he buys undervalued UK stocks that synergise with his businesses. His buys in Curry's in 2023 and Next in 2022-23 when they are now up 100%+ on those purchases. Wasn't hostile or even involved with those businesses. With MA's recent bid of buying XXL Sport & Villmark I can see even more synergy with THG since a lot of XXL's sales are in their nutrition section

Its over-reaction. Trump said pharma companies currently are expempt from Tariffs so GSK is in the clear for the their vaccines which has been a big sag on price.

Also Trump said if you produce in US, you won't be tariffed and a lot of FTSE 100 companies have production facilities in US.

How is Mobico effected by Tariffs? They don't export to the US? Also US said if you have production facilities in US you won't be tariffed on goods produced in US.

Don't APN produce everything in their Liverpool facility? Just looked it up and THG does have THG nutrition production facilities in US with only 15-20% revenue coming from US. Seems THG is better prepared and won't be effected by tariffs as much.

Stanley, i'm not panicking. In fact I'm saying FTSE 100 is doing better than European index's even though its exposed to US and international trade a whole lot more. Keep calm and carry on. I'm still holding and hoping for the best for THG

The protein division isn't as important for US revenues compared to the beauty division. Overall US is around 25% of total revenue. For protein US is lumped with rest of world compared to Japan at 25% and EU at 15%. I would say go for production facilities in US would be best play but not sure if its worth it for protein side of things.

We got played by the EU a lot more than this. Now We got hit with 10% which is the lowest he can give since he is deciding a 10% minimum.

The worst part would be the potential reciprocal tariffs coming from EU which we can avoid now. THG is in a better position.

Here's dump. Thanks Trump

Yep FTSE down 1.5% but DAX down 2.3% and CAC 40 down 2%. EU index's doing worse yet UK is exposed to FTSE 100 and international trade a lot more. hmmmm. Where's the brexit complainer again?

FTSE 100 is exposed to international and US markets a lot, more than CAC 40. If you look at current pre-market FTSE 100 is down 1.6% whereas DAX is down 1.9% and EuroStoxx 50 down 2.1%. I don't see European index's doing better even though FTSE 100 is exposed to US a lot more.

10% tariff rate with a chance to reduce vs 20% tariff rate being stuck with reciprical tariffs coming from EU would be a nightmare for UK. Brexit is actually a benefit in this situation. Half the tariffs and entered the CPTPP last month with full membership rights coming in 3 months,