Member Info for ThetaDecay

I realised after the recent placing whats actually taking place. Again, going to wait until results to re-asses and potentially re-enter full position but damn my holdings are taking a beating on this bet. Genuinely the most useless board I've come across and I thought ITV with Dame Carolyn McCall and board collusion was bad.

I think its not going to re-rate higher until results which could be negative for a variety of reasons.

In terms of MM increasing his stake to take the company private, he's already at 25% minimum. He'll probably wait it out the next few months, if all goes well launches buybacks over time, if not then he will continue to dilute and scoop in September before a bid about 10-20% above market price at the time. He's going to wait and see what the market does over the next few months, hopefully we are in a for a re-rating.

New low, Technical Analysis now below a lot of traders trendlines. Sad times to be a THG holder. Still think patience is required here but I don't blame people for losing it. Low margin business that is seemingly shrinking, but inside there is turnaround potential, I guess the market is done with THG for now.

Market doesn't seem to be impressed with the results. I was half expecting this but surely at this low price its all been baked in.

MM loved what he did with Ingenuity and would love to do that again for THG. If he accumulates enough to take private I would expect he would keep the SP down to "dilute and scoop" with a final offer price 10-20% above the SP at the time. Its his way of taking it private and giving a middle finger to city and PI's

Positive Jeffries review (even though they held) is negated by the two negative reviews and price target dumps.

The only positive thing in recent times is the Fitch report. Fitch gave B+ rating and in their report had some very positive tailwinds that could appear this year.

No people don't believe Jeffries. Just like people don't believe Panmure Liberium with their negative interpretation of recent events.

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1068554/thg-downgraded-as-fundraise-reflects-weak-position-1068554.html

One broker held their price target and two reduced by half. That's not exactly positive for the brokerage community even through no one listens to those fools.

Couldn't even get £80 mill total. Bit disappointed to say the least.

At least its a pure-play travel retailer now with more presence outside the UK than in so no more being tethered to the tepid UK economy.

Still though, renaming it to TGJones is a joke, Smith to Jones highlights the Americanisation of Britian

Yes 90% of pre-revenue biotechs are just sliding down continually. Look at promising US listed biotechs with similar potential royalty streams like RegenxBio, Monte Rosa Therapeutics, Aquestive therapeutics etc. It gets even worse when you look at the CAR-T and Gene therapy companies like Autolus, Bicycle, Adaptimmune and Intellia. This is a Biotech bear market, make the right picks because I don't think this will last forever and I think Puretech is a solid choice.

Chance of a Kitchen sink results with Shakespeare returning and then blue skies.

Posted back in July 30th 2024 how I liked this gem.

We still like this at this price, What a company :)

Well i've sold my shares in Devolver and Frontier Developments to own more Everplay. Everplay has the highest value and the most potential with their games lineup this year imo. Solid company, great new CEO and nice pivot to publishing

Polish I'm surprised you see the value in Mobico but not in THG at these levels with the tailwinds that will likely appear this year.

Highly doubt they would do a buyback anytime soon but I expect it later this year when leverage falls below 1.5x, nutrition and beauty become more FCF positive and they aren't in a situation where they had to raise £60m from the CEO to get refinancing across the line and dilute everyone 13-20% at rock bottom prices.

Would love to see a 7% buyback to offset part of the recent dilution. Shares are cheap and a buyback signals that.

I fully expect a buyback in September after a period of cash generation, buyback announced in April would be a positive surprise.

Still very cheap. Golf with your friends 2 stands out to me as having great potential. Hell let loose made a surprise comeback a few months ago with them giving it away for free on Epic but seems to be returning back to standard numbers.

Sworn could be a positive surprise too but no real expectations for that.

Still heavily undervalued if you got a 6 month + horizon imo

Its the first quarter of demerger, its going to be bumpy. This is why I'm waiting for results, It will be FCF positive but Q1 might be nasty.

Historically Q1 has been negative after positive Q4's.

2023 - Net cash decreased by ~£100–120m between Dec and Mar.

2022 - £80–100m cash outflow in Q1

Payment to suppliers for Q4 sales, Rebuild inventory, Bonuses / restructuring / logistics catch-up, Weaker trading

Even with £100m in the bank, cash burn + carve-out + covenant requirements might leave them liquidity-constrained which would be disastrous for the share price if the results are not as expected in April.

The £60m convertible might be there to de-risk the balance sheet while refinancing and to show insider confidence to the market

Remember: banks look for minimum liquidity buffers post-refinancing, so they might be under pressure to shore up cash regardless of the optics

THG could have burned through cash operationally in Q1 2025 — due to seasonal factors, restructuring costs (especially post-demerger), or inventory buildup. This is common post-year-end when suppliers get paid, or before revenue starts ramping again.