Member Info for ThetaDecay

Here's the link to Pauls THG analysis last week: https://www.youtube.com/live/WnESmGFwabk

I can't wait to tune in today

I agree that the deal signed was good for both parties but greed has taken hold. I just hope in the next sitting we can start making progress because time is against us here but works in favour of Ghana as long as they ratify by end of 2026.

I posted the same thing back end of February and back last December. It's not a conspiracy theory, its just a theory and I've been invested in ALL for a while, got my average down to 12p.

NPP supported Atlantic, not NDC. Of course about the greed part of the deal, that has been known about since December when NDC adjacents and advisors spoke against the previous admins deal with Atlantic: https://www.myjoyonline.com/lithium-deal-governments-boastful-claim-on-10-royalty-is-a-celebration-of-mediocrity-ndc/

I am talking about a complete lack of action from NDC, not an increase in royalties or off-takes but an assumption that has been spoken by adjacents, they will be happy to play a waiting game to deal with a bigger company. Again, I said last time I would be proven wrong if they managed to at least discuss it or put it as an agenda in Parliament by the end of April but still no sign. Hoping for the best.

*NDC don't like Atlantic Lithium, NPP were more open to the idea

The simple fact is, the NPP don't like Atlantic Lithium, they want a bigger player so they won't be diluted out of ownership and will have enough funding requirements to take the extra step of investment, in fact the NPP have a very close relationship with the CCP and China. They have stated they want Chinese infrastructure expansion deals and the Chinese will 100% be looking at Ghanaian resources like when Newmont were practically forced to sell the Akyem Gold Mine (one of the largest gold mines in Ghana) to Zijin Mining Group.

There is a high chance they are waiting until Atlantic Lithium goes under or gets bought out. A lot in the NDC don't see a £50 million micro-cap miner as an actual long term source of funding, they would much rather see it bought out or liquidated and given to a Chinese/larger player, to fill their long term aspirations of their Lithium infrastructure pipeline.

https://chinaglobalsouth.com/2024/12/16/ghanas-newly-elected-president-wants-to-quickly-resume-chinese-backed-infrastructure-development/

Its illiquid, you can't sell easily and its also down from 45p in January to now 42.5p. These private companies will usually have illiquid price discovery that is usually set by funding rounds. So the real price movement will be when Ingenuity declares the next funding round price.

If THG sell Nutrition and are left with just Beauty, what actually is left of the company? A lot of Beauty sales are from third partyt/white labels like Cult Beauty, Lookfantastic. Its literally just a low-margin reseller for most of its Beauty sales. So we are left with a highly competitive, low margin/commoditized business with minimal control over costs due to white-label?

I just don't see THG dropping nutrition which is complete own-brand portfolio, albeit commoditized and highly competitive but at least has their own DTC funnel and connection with MA sports sellers.

Whats up with microcap spammers on PRTC board today? Why would anyone following Puretech care about a £9 million pump and dump AI stock.

The group said it remains on track to deliver positive trading EBITDA on a run-rate basis by the year ending 31 March 2026.

Still no need for more dilution, not great update but could be worse.

Oh you mean the Investing podcast with Paul Hill and Paul Scott, the one that attracts less than 100 views live?

The same investing podcast where they recommended Treatt last week as a screaming buy? Ah yeah those guys must be correct.

UK Economy grew 0.5% in February from an expected 0.1%. Should be positive for THG and consumer shares

That article last night in the Times should bring some eyes on this undervalued share.

What exactly do you expect the board or any biotech in a similar position to PRTC do?

There are 1b trial data coming later this year for LYT-200 but apart from that, its only phase 3 initiations without results until late 2026-27. Seaport initiating Phase 2 trials for Anxiety disorder, so all results are well off.

They have 3 years runway, costs will increase so I expect $42 million quarterly cashburn to increase substantially once Phase 3 and more Phase 2 trials start but that should be countered by Cobenfy royalties which should start to come in strong in 2026 onwards but there is uncertainty how much insurance companies will accept, the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review (ICER) has noted the need for more extensive data to fully assess Cobenfy's benefits compared to existing therapies. Bear in mind, 3 Year runway is probably not enough to take LYT-100 and 200 into production with FDA approval roughly set for 2028-29 if things go well which is 3-4 years, matching runway. Thats the short view on risks involved.

I think PRTC will start to re-rate when Cobenfy uncertainties start to dissipate when it enters the market and gains some positive news but until then its at the whims of the biotech sector which is downwards. Again, many top rated small-mid cap biotechs are trading under cash value which is good because I like to buy when the market pessimism is high. Biotech hinges on lower rates.

Stay cool, GLTA.

Profits halved from last year EBITDA half from last year withotu any warning about this in October. And this slump is expected to continue the whole of FY25, bad bad news, especially when they spent loads of capex on new facility and expansion now demand is less than last year. At least Treatt now could be considered not overvalued anymore but I dont see a re-rate happening now.

There will be no re-rate until resuls confirm turnaround

Its also funny because Polish has made bullish posts on Mobico which isnt doing much better than THG

PRTC Nasdaq listing is up 13% since 5pm. So its overall up 0.23% on the day. Not amazing reaction compared to other biotechs but you will see yesterdays losses erased when it opens on LSE tomorrow

Todays dump is disappointing and unjustified. Obviously Nordic's bid is an unacceptable price, probably around 200's and not worth mentioning in the RNS. I still feel like Puretech is a great biotech but again the sector as a whole is unloved and there are many pre-revenue biotechs in US that are trading under cash value. They have about 3 years runway at the moment but that $42 million quarterly loss can easily turn into $60 million when LYT-100 and LYT-200 enters phase 3 trials. Phase 3 are always longer lasting and more expensive. PRTC have no drugs entering phase 3 at the moment so very long term and at the whims to the market without real catalysts. You have competitor drugs to LYT-100 entering phase 3 trials, I like LYT-100 due to its tolerability profile so hopefully that sticks but still a lot of uncertainty. LYT-200 is entering an extremely competitive space with monoclonal antibody Oncology. Look at Vir Biotech in US, they also are pre-revenue oncology focused with similar drugs, also trading at all time lows and below cash balance.

Saying that, when private equity firms bid for Biotechs, its usually a strong signal its undervalued in some way, Seaport seems to be completely ignored. This is just the sad case for Biotechs without near term catalysts, nothing puretech specific. Still using this opportunity to accumulate slowly.

Got confused by tradingview saying 10th is earnings, looks like its the 30th instead.

Its one of the many undervalued shares on UK markets. MA is gobbling these up like he did with Next, Curry's in 2022-23 before the price rises. We will find out on Thursday if a re-rate is in order.