Member Info for ThetaDecay

I saw 3rd June as their cut-off date but might have misread.

Their runway could give them enough time to release Interim Phase III results in late 2026 but it will be a close call with costs going to ramp up significantly next year.

High chance of royalty deal or buyout before then.

Just under 2 weeks until the next FTSE Reshuffle. THG at the bottom of the FTSE 250 board with automatic exit position. There are over 25 companies with a higher market cap and share price momentum that could take THG's place. My bet would be Wickes, Warehouse REIT, Patheon Infra, Avon Tech, Octopus Renewables, Ashoka India, On the Beac Group, PZ Cussons, Porvair. The list could go on, no chance THG will be beat these market caps in the next 2 weeks.

Saying that, I've always thought FTSE 250 entry was a red herring and wasn't going to cause a pump in the SP, I think the same for exiting, I doubt it will have much effect on SP either.

Davffed, the reason I think the contract is overpriced is becauseon 2024, THG paid approximately £462.9 million to Ingenuity for e-commerce infrastructure, logistics, and related services. Given THG's post-demerger revenue of £1.688 billion, these payments represented about 27.4% of its total revenue. In the broader e-commerce industry, companies typically incur distribution and platform service costs that range between 10% to 15% of their gross merchandise value (GMV), THG's payments to Ingenuity appear to be a larger proportion of its revenue, suggesting either a higher dependency on Ingenuity's services or an overpriced contract. There is certainly a conflict of interest here with MM.

If other companies are joining Ingenuity I could argue there is something unique about Ingenuity that causes this extra pricing but they are still getting over 70% of their revenue from this single THG contract, and its been years since MM has been trying to get other retailers to use Ingenuity.

Why would you want to own Ingenuity? The business does not have a moat, 74% of 2024 revenues were from the unfair and overpriced THG contract, compared to 77% in 2022 being from the onerous THG contract, I only see 3% change in 2 years, so no one is significantly joining Ingenuity, just ripping THG shareholders off. Oh and to top it off, they are deeply unprofitable and even on current trajectory, won't be profitable until 2030 and will need at least £150 million fundraise before then.

Whoever owns Ingenuity at this price, I will say good luck to you haha.

Great news today! And Phase 3 planned for EOY for LYT-100. If Phase 3 produces the same results as Phase 2 the drug or even Puretech as a whole will be a major buyout target.

I never wanted shares in Ingenuity in the first place. Bad company with over 70% of its revenue coming from the overpriced onerous THG contract.

Those shares were bought back by RemainCo, effectively a buyback instead of a payout. Only a few weeks before MM did his massive dilution, so zero benefit to us

Yeah i'm bullish. I think H2 Results will show turnaround in margins and growth, Whey production going up in the next few months, whey prices topping as a result. I like THG, i don't like MM's conflict of interest with Ingenuity but i think THG is heavy value at this price.

I generally don't like to compare THG to APN, I think APN could be seen as overvalued and is in a completely different business cycle to THG, always smaller higher growth companies get a premium on the market.

And this is me who is bullish THG and has a price target over 60p. I'm just being realistic with the results we have

Surely you arent suggesting THG should have the same relative valuation as APN when MyProtein had negative -8.7% revenue growth and APN had 41% revenue growth. Surely delusional? I'm tired of these rampers making fake buyout rumours and comparing to APN valuation saying the SP should be in the hundrends, just delusion,

APN has very good revenue growth compared to the rest of the sector, that should tell you enough about their products. Its not about the raw materials used but who they are marketing it to and the deals they have with sports teams.

Yes I hold THG shares and yes I think THG is undervalued and has catalysts this year for a potential re-rating, I just don't see why you would ever think THG would be the same relative valuation as APN when THG has negative revenue growth whilst APN has 45% growth and is in early stages of expansion. Its crazy to think and makes no sense if you value companies via SP metrics. I think THG is undervalued but that has nothing to do with comparing to APN valuation.

Why would THG ever have the same relative value as APN? APN is a premium product, THG and MyProtein is not and competes with Amazon and Temu. APN had 41% Year on Year growth in FY24, compared to THG's -5% revenue decline in FY24. There will NEVER be a situation when a less competitive product with negative revenue growth will be the valued comparatively with a premium product on 45% revenue growth. The valuation discrepency will stay and it makes complete sense.

This is the first time I've heard it got published on Bloomberg. Interesting.

Can we all just admit that the Betaville "rumours" were completely made up. When Betaville rumours come out, there are always chatter about it on Telegram, X or blog articles a day later. We haven't seen that at all. The price rise could simply be because FTSE 250 open and closed ended funds are getting bid in numbers we haven't seen for years?

Do we have any theories as to why Steve was sacked? He seemed to be doing a good job.

I will say, his replacement Frank Sagnier has a lot of experience in the game industry. In 2014, he joined Codemasters, a British video game developers and publisher, to turn around the company that had been struggling for several years. Within his 7 years tenure as CEO, he operated a strategic repositioning of

the business, significantly grew the company top and bottom line, acquired 2 games developers, floated the company on the AIM platform of the London Stock Exchange in 2018 and sold the business to Electronic Arts in February 2021 for over $1.2B.

It seems like Frank is a lot more informed and suited for a potential acquisition, he has a history of growing companies via acquisitions, even at EA he was behind multiple buy outs when he was VP EA Partners - Third Party development and publishing for 4 years.

Maybe Everplay are looking to build out their base via buyouts instead of being sold out themselves? Although they said Frank will be a temp CEO while they look for another, maybe that was the difference between Steve and the board, Steve was looking for dividends and investor payouts whilst Frank and the board are looking for expansion and buyouts to grow Everplay.

Still a great company with some top games coming out like Golf with your Friends 2. GLA

WPC (Whey Protein Concentrate) production has basically reversed from its Q4 2024 fall and is set to rise as high as Q2 2023 production over the over the coming months. Look at the correlation between WPC production and price, the price is visibly topping in the charts.

https://www.clal.it/en/index.php?section=produzioni_usa_wpc2

Margin expansion + FCF for buybacks coming in H2 update,

GLA

If we breach 30p and turn 29p range into support, could be a very positive summer for THG holders.

What do you mean? We are up 13% from the bottom, we had a move in March 2025 that took us 17% up from that bottom. November 2024 tookm us 32% from the bottom before the resumption of downward action.

Still, good SP movement here, next step is moving above the 29/30p resistance

Rev B is a failing business losing badly to Amazon, Warpaint London and Elf beauty. Thankfully THG has stopped doing terrible bolt-on acquisitions for failing companies. Would rather THG sort out their own generic beauty range and let Rev B fail on its own.