Member Info for ThetaDecay

THG will benefit from the money/funds now flowing into FTSE 250 and UK Small caps after years of outflows, we are now seeing inflows. While THG is still in the FTSE 250, it should get a nice passive boost or at least some downside protection, I think THG is set to leave the FTSE 250 in two months anyway. We need the share to be safely above 29/30p to call a bottom.

THG is still down near its all time lows meanwhile UK Small caps have rebounded massively, AIM 100 is back to January price levels, FTSE 250 back to February price levels and THG still at 26p. Such explosions

Under HMRC rules, you cannot hold a private unlisted company in an ISA. Most likely II either transferred the shares into your general stocks and shares account or they liquidated the holdings into cash.

UK signing deals with all major trading partners, India, US and potentially EU.

FTSE 250 and AIM 100 markets are now way higher than before the April Tariff announcements, I think we are seeing a long term bottom in UK small/mid caps and we are seeing the beginnings of a turnaround for UK plc.

Small shoutout as a share tip from Gervais Williams, manager of the Premier Miton UK Multi Cap Income fund. Near the bottom of the article.

https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/area-uk-market-one-investors-should-focus-ii535195

Completely correct Oke.

Also lets get this straight, shareholders were only given 10-13% rollover opportunity into Ingenuity, meanwhile MM gave himeslf over 15% of the newly offered shares at extremely low prices outside of the rollover (diluting and scooping), aka long term shareholders benefited less than MM from cutting out ingenuity at an extremely distressed price.

Also he opened THG up to a conflict of interest with its contracts and dealings with Ingenuity, which even now is causing market apprehension since THG's contract with Ingenuity is obviously a bad deal for THG.

Taking private isn't fud though, MM could easily do what he did with Ingenuity to different parts of THG in the future. He is happy with "Diluting and Scooping", a tactic you find in badly run family businesses over on the continent like Ubisoft with the Guillemot family and Mobico with the Cosmen family

The MyProtein bid was about a P/S of 1.0 at the midpoint. With revenue stagnant and intense competition both from more premium brands and lower cost competitiors I don't see how MyProtein could realistically go for anything above 0.8 P/S (THG is currently sitting at 0.24 Price to Sales, a valuation you only ever see on distressed/bankrupted businesses and risky Chinese shares).

I just don't see a realistic offer above 0.7/0.8 P/S for MyProtein with their growth rates and commoditisation of the sector. Selkirk offering doesn't count with their loo paper offered,

I don't see much FUD here, just discussion about why THG is priced so low and the potential opportunities to regain shareholder value. Remember, everyone in THG is sitting at a loss, no one has made an actual profit holding THG

Come on guys, are we really that desperate to rehash old news? Fitch is over a month old and we all went through and discussed it in detail. It was great news then, B+ rating already priced in, I don't get how its suddenly relevant now?

https://uk.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/fitch-revises-thg-plcs-outlook-to-stable-affirms-b-rating-93CH-3998857

It seems like the CEO and CFO chose to redeem the smallest amount of their share incentive program so drop today could be related to that RNS disclosure.

Sole analyst still reiterates 72p price target (as of 25th April) based off ramp-up and positive EBITDA in 2026. When you go up 200% in 3 months there are always going to be short term sellers with some distribution, still long term picture is as bright as ever.

Jeffries were house broker at IPO. It will always lean on the side of bullishness

LilPeep, I've been saying for months many in the NDC know full well that Atlantic have until 2026 until the company will run out of money and likely sell or enter administration where a larger South African or Chinese player can pick up the land without having to ask NDC for extra funding and who in the long term can extend investments beyond just mining, Atlantic Lithium doesn't fit the bill on that for a lot of people in the government. NDC signing mining and infrastructure deals with Chinese gov the last two weeks, wouldn't be surprised if one of the largest discovered Lithium deposits on the African continent wasn't in discussion.

Lets hope for a revised terms and amicable deal has been or will be agreed in the next 2 months, otherwise NDC know they can just wait a year and they have exactly what they want. Time is on their side, not ours, they have the lithium and know the mine will enter before 2028 when lithium market is set for turnaround

Lord Allen, the most useless chairman in history. I bet he's enjoying his cushy pay packet though. Completely inept board of directors I think I have come across, its like they are all asleep. No activist investors in sight, except his own pal MA who won't be hostile.

Where is the £40 million FCF? It was FCF neutral. Next results should show FCF of £40-50 million even if Whey prices are elavated still, although I don't see why it would go much higher when all economic figures point to a global slowdown.

I've said before, they will launch a big buyback in 2H, paving the way for dividends later down the road.

Assuming a relatively tame base-case where:

1. £92m adjusted EBITDA grows 10% in 2025

2. Capex stays ~£20m.

3. Lease payments ~£22m.

4. Interest ~£50–55m.

Then THG could realistically achieve £40–60m FCF in 2025. So £40 million FCF is a base case.

The reason FCF is neutral is due to £39.3m being spent on Demerger-related costs + Exiting costs on low margin markets. FCF was artificially depressed by necessary restructuring to clean up the business which we won't see in next results.

Thats what i've been saying Pearls. The next 6 months are a great inflection point. Today's results are not that meaningful when we already know the damage of '24. Guidance is positive which is the most important thing here.

As long as we don't break below 27.2, we should find some support.

Nutrition revenue decline isn't that worrying when you read the fine print. Its due to a deliberate clearing of discounted old inventory during the Myprotein rebrand (selling at very low prices). FX issues in Asia (especially Japan) hurt international sales badly. Yen devaluation made products far less competitive and commodity price shocks (whey protein at record highs) squeezed pricing power online.

Beauty grew modestly (+3.3%), but strategic exit from low-margin, unprofitable markets (mainly parts of Europe and Asia) capped headline growth.

I'm surprised about the lack of FCF but it genuinely seems like a one time issue. Capex fallen massively, they still maintain guidance, margins on the up even though revenue went through a decline.

Not the best set of results but could have been worse. Again, it all leads to the next set of results in 6 months time.

THG Beauty:

1.Revenue +3.3% (CCY +4.6%).

2. Focused on profitable markets (UK and US now 82% of online Beauty sales).

3. Adjusted EBITDA margin jumped from 4.1% to 7.2%.

THG Nutrition:

1.Revenue -11.9% (CCY -8.7%).Hit by whey protein prices, FX headwinds (especially Japan), and promotional discounting post-rebrand.

2. Adjusted EBITDA margin collapsed from 13.5% to 6.0%.

3. THG Nutrition returned to positive growth in Q1

Long-term guidance maintained:

1.Mid-single-digit revenue growth for FY 2025.

2. EBITDA margin recovery towards ~9% over the medium term.

3. Margin tailwinds expected H2 2025 onward from whey price normalization.

Challenges:

1.Operating Loss widened sharply due to:

2.Non-cash write-offs (losses from discontinued operations and impairments).

3.Strategic costs (rebrand, warehouse consolidations, employee severances).

4.Q1 Beauty weakness could persist a bit longer due to broader beauty market trends and indirect tariff risks.

5.Nutrition in Asia remains difficult (FX headwinds in Japan, reduced promotional activity hurting volumes)

6. Minimal Free Cash Flow (only neutral post-demerger).

Key Forward-Looking Points:

1.Beauty to benefit from new brand launches (e.g., Beauty of Joseon, Fenty Beauty).

2. Nutrition omnichannel strategy and brand awareness (via Myprotein expansion) set up for recovery.

3. Margins will recover significantly in H2 2025 once whey costs normalize.

4. Operational leverage improving with capex and lease cost reductions.

Overall, its another jam tomorrow situation. Demerger co didnt produce the FCF as promised. Sad situation

I agree Muggle but its priced in, any signs of improvement will be positive. We are looking at less than 0.2x price to sales and 0.4x price to book. I very rarely see valuations like that unless they are a bank, energy producer or a company in distress, even with their generic uncompetitive products.