Member Info for ThetaDecay

"They have just issued more shares at 46p, that's nearly double of the current THG price"

The fact you are looking at the price alone as a useful metric is actually laughable

Ingenuity is loss making and will be loss making for the next 5 years at least. Every analyst at the split said Ingenuity will require at least £200 million of funding between 2024-2030 with dilution being the most likely result as is the likely outcome with private companies.

From an article just before the demerger: “It is likely Ingenuity becomes a private company but, as it will be loss-making for the next five years, funding of the business will be required,” thinks Panmure Liberum’s analyst. Cash outflows of another £150m are projected before Ingenuity reaches break-even.

The £150 million of outflows is likely £200 million after the results, it really should not be surprising to anyone that a £25 million company that needs £150-250 million of funding and will make losses for the next 5 years will get heavy dilution. Come on guys, this is not rocket science.

Wouldn't be surprised if his buddy MA is increasing his stake before the AGM

Good news!

Frasiers is only using Ingenuity in Australia, they have their own top class distribution facility and infrastructure in Derbyshire. JD Sports is a good match for Applied Nutrition because of JD Gyms, without it the benefit is much less. Sports Direct doesnt have a gym so it would be like selling Protein in JD Sports (doesn't happen), the crossover is much less because no one goes to sports direct to buy Nutrition products, people go to the gym shop (JD Gyms) to buy Nutrition. Completely different situation. Could repeat myself like last time about why a firm with positive FCF, better margins and high revenue growth has much higher multiples than a company like THG losing market share, negative revenue growth and no FCF. I don't know why you keep bleating about APN.

Looking bad guys. I'm still in but my theories posted previously are becoming more and more likely

Also it is absurd expecting buybacks now, but I fully expect buybacks to have started by the start of Q4

Yes Buybacks will be a lot more value accretive to shareholders in the long term. We need to get this absurd sharecount down from all of MM's dilution, to make it easier for share price appreciation in the future due to lower float and sets the stage for better EPS and share metrics over time.

Pearls, yes as I have been saying previously Diluting and Scooping is in MM's playbook. With the loan MM retains flexibility. If THG recovers and share price rises, he can convert and increase ownership on favorable terms. He couldn't do the conversion price lower at the time, he already did it close to 8% below the SP at the time, any lower his spin on the whole affair would have gone down terribly. Lets be clear though, this was not a gift from MM, it's an opportunistic convertible loan with upside for MM and obligations for THG

Agree, FTSE inclusion was always a red herring. Said as much before entry, it wont cause a pump. Exiting won't cause a dump either.

It will probably be a while until they re-enter, there are companies that have 30%+ higher market cap that are valid. On top of that, in September the FTSE inclusion criteria changes allowing securities trading in Euros or US Dollars to be considered for inclusion in the FTSE UK Index Series. This opens up at least 10 companies to enter the FTSE index and would place THG even lower on the re-entry list, you will have companies like CANAL+ and Coca-Cola Europacific Partners among others joining the FTSE 100 in September, pushing back companies into 250

We will need £50 mill at least so about 20% rise in SP and we will also need Ferrexpo, Asos and Next Gen Solar to all fall at least 5%. Seems near impossible.

Its pretty much impossible. Its not just Wickes, you have Rank Group, Gamma Communications, Wickes, Avon Tech, Porvair. And then you have the trusts that are now valid like Pantheon Infra, Ashoka India, Octopus Renewables, Warehouse REIT etc. All have a much larger MC than THG and will not be possible to catch up. THG is at the bottom of the Automatic exit, they will be leaving and there is over 25 companies with a higher market cap that could make the cut.

Yes i'm starting to think they will be bought out now, seems a likely possibility. Revenue hike is a possibility, Nice Day for Fishing is being released next week and its following on steam has gone up massively in the last month, over 11k followers and is currently top 455 selling game on steam even though its not been released. Got two great potential launches later this year too with Wraith Ops and Golf with your Friends 2.

We had some telegram group call THG last week with fake rumours spreading from it. If I took a guess, that same group dropped THG today and thats partly why its dropped so much.

We want to keep as much of LYT-100 as possible, small royalty deals or partnerships would be ideal but in some cases I would rather upfront dilution then capping the upside with bad third-party deals.

Also, just to note, Puretech is now in Seeking Alpha's top 25 Biotech buys as of this week.

Mobico paying close to £90 million in Debt Interest every year, thats nearly the total market cap of the company now. On top of that, they have their perpetual bond (4.25% per annum) which is going to have to be reset in February 2026 which will give way to much higher rates on this hybrid instrument. What exactly have Mobico got planned to reduce or elimate the perpetual bond before February 2026. Why did Mobico tell us the sale of the School Bus division will help develerage and reduce debts but now Mobico said the sale is expected to have a “neutral” impact on covenant net debt. Jeffries Analyst Patterson claims that “true” or effective net debt, which accounts for both the hybrid bond and lease obligations, would actually increase as a result of this deal. If that is the case, then what can Mobico now do to reduce debt before refinancing in the next year?

I love investing in value shares that are hated by the market but I am very unsure on this one, could be a big payoff or could result in take private with shareholders losing.

Thoughts?

Gggg, Do you have a SimilarWeb account? It costs $199 a month to access SimilarWebs Search data

I should say, we WILL see the improvement in next results in H2.

Ryan. they didnt really try to hide it and the reason for that is the demerger one off costs, yes I believe the ingenuity contract is a conflict of interest but lets do some maths here:

Assuming a relatively tame base-case where:

1. £92m adjusted EBITDA grows 10% in 2025

2. Capex stays ~£20m.

3. Lease payments ~£22m.

4. Interest ~£50–55m.

Then THG could realistically achieve £40–60m FCF in 2025. So £40 million FCF is a base case.

The reason FCF is neutral is due to £39.3m being spent on Demerger-related costs + Exiting costs on low margin markets. FCF was artificially depressed by necessary restructuring to clean up the business which we won't see in next results.

The Frasers deal was a multipronged agreement. Frasers expanding their Fraser+ scheme to cover THG goods therefore will be allocated on Ingenuity chain, MA bought out luxury site from THG. To be clear, Frasers is only using Ingenuity in Australia not in UK.

"Frasers Group will also benefit from THG’s courier management services to drive the efficiency and performance of Frasers’ Australian fulfilment and logistics operations, supporting the Group’s international expansion". This worked out for Frasers because they are using a trusted partner in THG that already has logistics solution in Ingenuity, not because Ingenuity has something special compared to competition. Yes I'm bearish on ingenuity, does not mean I'm bearish on THG at this price, if I was I wouldn't even be bothering to comment on this board because I wouldn't own the shares.