Member Info for ThetaDecay

10 million shares traded already, average is now 4.77 million traded in a day. Looks like distribution so wouldn't be surprised to see a dump tomorrow either way. I'm not too much into TA but its hitting the descending trendline quite cleanly right now. Going to be an interesting end of the day, fingers crossed we make it.

I was looking at google data which seems to update MC in real time.

I think it needs to stay in FTSE 250 for a few quarters before most funds even touch it if FTSE 350 is a fund requirement.

Looking at MC's now, I think OSG is right. Its going to be close, seems like the cutoff is around £372 MC and THG is at £375, subject to change but will be tight.

In my calculations as long as THG is above 26p it seems likely THG will stay in unless there is something I am missing here, doesn't look like the other MC's have risen

Why do you think it needs another half a point here? In the indicative review they announced 3 changes and since then THG has made it above the minimum exit position and Pantheon Resources is still well below the FTSE 250 Automatic entry position.

https://www.lseg.com/en/media-centre/press-releases/ftse-russell/2025/ftse-uk-index-series-indicative-annual-review-changes-june-2025

Only £10 mill difference in Market cap now between THG and ASOS. We need whoever bought heavy yesterday to continue the pump and maybe dump a little bit of ASOS.

They usually only do 4 picks when either share is above automatic entry or below automatic exit and it seems like both might not happen if THG keeps its rise

If THG stays above 26p then its out of the Automatic Exit position, if Pantheon Infrastructure stays below 110p then its not in Automatic Entry position (current SP of 101p). Its going to be a close call but looking like THG will stay in.

In fact, THG is now only 4.5% below ASOS market cap so if it has another strong performance today and ASOS dips a bit today then ASOS will be 4th pick not THG. Going to be a close one that, £390 million market cap for ASOS vs £375 million market cap for THG currently.

Up 7.5%, big buyer in the shadows, staying in FTSE 250. Good day for THG.

It won't be 4 deletions because they announced 3 additions and unlikely for that to change now, so yeah THG is saved by Ferrexpo's collapse.

That's probably partly why its reacting strongly today because with Ferrexpo's recent price dump its likely THG will stay in FTSE 250 now. Unless there is peace talks in Ukraine by tomorrow evening, its looking good.

THG might be able to stay in the FTSE 250 here. If Ferrexpo's share price keeps sliding down and THG keeps going up by tomorrow evening then THG will remain in. Currently THG has a higher market cap than Ferrexpo which is based in Ukraine and has reacted negatively to recent escalatory events in the region.

High chance THG stays in and Ferrexpo will get the boot. MM saved by the bell it seems

4 million traded and average for full day is 3 million. Someone bought the dip this morning. Might top up myself too, been a while.

Astragon is turning out to be a great buy from Everplay. Simulator games are taking off in popularity and Police Sim + Construction Sim still generating great revenues 2 years after release. With Firefighter Sim and Seafarer Sim coming out this year I think we see a beat in earnings later this year. Both new simulator games are made in the new Unreal Engine and Firefighter Sim is Co-op focused and streamer friendly so could take off.

Looking good for Everplay.

Looking good for Everplay's pivot to publishing. Nice Day for Fishing is currently the 53rd top selling game on steam, followers rising fast and over 2k concurrent players on steam earlier.

https://steamdb.info/app/2393160/

We are lower than back when the company was called Open Oprhan, this is bad news, no two ways about it but the drop could be overdone here.

Looking at the top US CRO's like Icon and IQVIA are also suffering heavily, just to compare the Icon plc and IQVIA share prices are down 65-85% and back to 2018 prices, and those are the companies that have more of a moat than Hvivo. Troubling times ahead but there is light at the end of the tunnel at some point

Just an idea of how NDC adjacents think:

"the obvious fact that Ghana's lithium prospects have been placed in the hands of a small junior miner with very limited experience. Atlantic Lithium, the only lithium lease-holder in Ghana, is so small that to raise $13.2 million on the stock market in mid-2022, it had to make up mining rights it didn't then have."

"We therefore call on the government to support Parliament in scrutinising the signed agreement with a fine comb and to stand ready to make the necessary amendments to the agreement terms to satisfy a country that has grown more alert, more impatient for "better", and more sophisticated than politicians give it credit for. In the 1970s, the Ghanaian government introduced policy to set a floor of 55 per cent under the ownership stake of the state in producing mining concessions."

~ Bossman Essandor https://allafrica.com/stories/202503200396.html

I don't think ALL management are lying but I think the NDC are playing Atlantic Lithium here, I think the ministers are lying and have been trying to get an agreement with the Chinese. NH never said negotiations are going well as far as I remember, he said that they open to negotiations and dedicated to the Ghana partnership. If NDC suddenly want 55% ownership of the mine and are forcing a dilutive raise as a result to sort out funding, I don't think this will go down well at all. This is just speculation, I hope I will be proven wrong in the next few months.

They shorted most likely believing the phase 2 results would not be as good as was announced. Most phase 2 results are disappointing compared to 1. Also news about Cobenfy failure and lower insurance interest than predicted probably had a hand. Biotechs have been a really easy short target for firms the last few years, will backfire when they find out RFK isn't going to change that much in terms of FDA and biotech market will slowly rebound when interest rates start to go down.

As I have said previously, NDC and CCP have made many significant agreements in the last few months. They have pledged an infrastructure and resource deal literally a few weeks ago, it would be crazy to assume one of the largest Lithium deposits in Africa was not brought up. Members of the NDC have in the past expressed displeasure about the fact Atlantic Lithium hold the rights to the land and would much prefer a larger South Africa/Chinese player to own the rights who will not need funding from the Ghana government (ALL disclosed it will need funding help from Ghana admin to fully realise production), NDC want an owner that can not only fund it but can also build the whole supply chain infrastructure, something China has great experience in. You have to view this in the eyes of NDC members, they see the Lithium as Ghana property and they only want a firm to build out the infrastructure and the know-how, they can wait a few years for ALL to go bust and let a Chinese co' buy it off before 27/28 when Lithium is predicted to return.

I am still in but I am down 60% and my thesis is becoming more and more likely over time. But as Ramon said, we have until the end of July here, so there is still a chance!