Member Info for ThetaDecay

Cavendish is Hvivo's house broker and nominated advisor so yes they get paid for it.

Fair points. I would counter with the fact that yes LYT-200 is the most advanced candidate targeting galectin-9 but from the AML trials, the G9 targeting hasn't got a better ORR than other new AML drugs in other pipelines, LYT-200 got Fast Track/Orphan designation for the treatment of AML and its not confirmed yet whether they will get it for MDS (I'm assuming they will though), and fast track is not as rare as you suggest for oncology and new targeting, although I might have been a bit harsh in saying there is no special MO but I wouldn't call it standout. The reason they pivoted from AML to MDS is because AML is crowded with other drugs receiving similar and higher ORR and survival stats. R/R high-risk MDS switch is a good move because its a lot less crowded but a lot of adjacent drugs could always be applied in this area in the future with trials, first mover advantage is a thing though so I'm not entirely bearish. I'm not saying LYT-200 is worthless, its stil worth quite a bit and MDS will hopefully just be the start but it's not something I would want to hold on its own personally, Oncology in general is an extremely crowded space right now in terms of drugs coming through biotech pipelines.

Sure :)

I think £15 is fair in 10 years time if it compounds and expands as expected in a bull scenario.

And by start of year, I mean a 90p base with the updated backlog. @shareholder23 essientially calculating the possible revenue from the Rheinmetall deal using GWH if it reaches 200-300 sites and using slightly below the current P/S but still much higher than Nucera's P/S. You have to remember the Rheinmetall contract is shared with Sunfire who are bringing alkaline electrolysis which shares scope with ITM (PEM electrolyser supplier). My case isn't a bullish case but a base case so yeah there's some consveratism baked in the calculations but wouldn't consider it conservative as a whole. I think its fair to say ITM will grow is backlog over time as more contracts come in and contracts materialise into revenue, hopefully hitting EBITDA profitability by 2030. I think the SP will increase substantially over 5 years but I don't think it will be anywhere near £10 unless something else happens outside what we already know.

No, Digitalis suggested the Rheinmetall deal added £10 to the share price and I suggested it adds £1.5 to the share price, this value add is over a period of time but nowhere did I suggest the share price would be 60p in 5 years time, if that was the case I wouldn't be invested in ITM. I said I see the share price increasing 30% each year as a base average for the next 10 years from a point at the start of the year, compared to Digitalis who suggested the share price would hit £20 within 5 years.

Sure, sounds fair

@Digitalis My calculations would be something along these lines:

Current EV is roughly £620–650m against ~£42m of revenue, about 15x sales (generous to sector competitors) so for Rheinmetall, 200–300 plants × 50MW = 10–15 GW of electrolysis. PEM systems at large scale might generate £600–800k per MW of revenue for ITM. Split with Sunfire, and per-plant electrolyser content is maybe £30/40m, of which ITM might win 40–60% of plants. ITM captures ~1.5–2 GW over 8/10 years so £1.0–1.5bn cumulative equipment revenue for the whole project, so about £130–190m of incremental revenue at maturity, applying a 15x yearly sales to that would add 80–150p per share. For Hydropulse, thats a shot in the dark until we hear more about the future sales projections but lets say they get 100–150MW operating by 2029–30 (say 8–12 plants across the ABO/Eternal/Protium pipelines you would be looking at it being worth 40-60p per share for sales spread out, with a ramp and increase in revenue each year supporting 30% CAGR along with other initatives.

I don't know how you got to $10 billion in revenue for the Rheinmetall contract lol, even Nucera doesn't come close to that in their industrial contracts with mass supplied factories in Germany/Poland

I agree, if it went that way the possible course of action would be to convert into a closed-ended investment fund like RTW and then use the cash to invest in other biotech stakes and get royalty deals on the side, like a mixture between RTW trust and Royalty Pharma.

If they sell Celea then what are we left with? Gallop alone is not worth holding and not worth this MC, its in a crowded space with, switching AM with no special MO. We would be left with a quasi royalty company with an extra layer of management siphoning off funds. How much of the Gallop sale would reach shareholders?

Out of interest, where do you get your numbers for that from? What calculations did you do to get to Hydropulse being worth £4 billion EV and Rheinmetall being worth £8 billion EV?

I'm not inferring that you personally are not a LTH, but being angry and/or upset that the SP has only increased 500% in 6 months isn't what I expect of LTH's who understand the market. It could hit 200p, the newsflow and updated backlog has caused a deserved rerating but as a LTH, I was expecting 30% CAGR and its beaten that by a country mile even at 120p. Expecting £5 this year just seems rampy, I was browsing this board over 6 months ago and it was a completely vibe from LTH's.

The 90p to 60p fall was after the price went up around 300% , this fall is after the price went up close to 450%, so proportionally its the same ratio of downwards action to upwards action, when you have more traders/rampers and froth in the market the SP will increase and decrease at higher beta in the short term, its just how the market works. If you are appearing and vanishing within a 2 month timeframe after a straight line up then you aren't an LTH, sorry. I am expecting a market beating 30% CAGR from ITM for the next 10 years, 3x the returns of the Nasdaq Index. I think it will hit 500p at some point but if you are expecting it to hit 500p this year then what after? Shares don't go up in a straight line forever, I expect a trend upwards with high volatility due to it being an AIM stock and being in an emerging trend. It's simple, when the market goes up more than the current share value, it will also go down proportionally at some point below fair value, fair value increases each year on an improving company like ITM. I could go further, but I think you get the point i'm trying to make here

I think its fair if people don't like to take some profits after froth in the market, especially if they aren't paying attention to the day to day price rises and daily/weekly volume. In that case, its just taking advantage of dips and buying when you get opportunities. Like the guy said, pullbacks fuel the next rise and if you don't like trading a portion of your long term holding then buying on pullbacks is the play. Personally, I've been DCA'ing into ITM since 2023 and saw the 400% price swing in less than 8 weeks as a good TP to buy back at a later date seeing the froth in the share price and the amount of rampers on the board usually signals a temporary high for a while. I probably still have considerably more ITM than a lot of people on this board even after selling half my stake near the highs. Still bullish long term and will take advantage of the pullbacks again. Investing is a long term play and questioning why stocks don't go up in a straight line and the fall is not uncalled for at all, its standard market moves in a situation like we've seen.

Yes, long term investors don't really care about this drop considering where it was a few months ago. Just another buying opportunity to hold long term if it drops to volume support. Only the rampers/traders are mad about this, was obviously in a hype bubble taking the metrics to absurd valuations. Happy to add if it keeps dropping

I sold half my ITM at 200p when it my TP, will buy back the other half if it hits long term support at 85-90p. at 200p you had something like a forward Price to Sales of 30x at best for a non-profitable business with no recurring revenue. I like holding ITM as a long term hydrogen play but the bubble has been popped and will take some time for investors to bowl this out.

~ Theta

1.5% dilution today, management rewarding themselves on easy targets meanwhile the share price is languishing

I didn't hear any specific price or any specific bidder, only that there is a lot of interest at a decent premium to current SP. Could be made up.

I agree, If its true its an opportunistic bid but its still around a 50% premium to current SP. I heard it in a pub in the city, i'm not giving away any sources, rumours swirl all the time but this one I think adds up. Either way, yougov is very cheap at this price and I would not be surprised to see private equity circling like vultures, it would be an easy ROI for them at any price under 500p in my opinion.

Yougov expect FY26 adjusted operating profit to be £52m-56m, meaning a buyout at 300p+ would only take 6 years for a private equity firm to earn their money back from the purchase assuming profits are stagnant.