Member Info for ThetaDecay

I get that they could have known the Iliad contract was set and done and had a broad view on the final contract amount but none of what was said in the Final Results last week really alluded to that. Maybe its just me, I was surprised, i'm also surprised its gone down this much, seems an overreaction to the positive surprise of 500 trial count.

@HotChip But how could you expect iliad revenues were already factored into guidance? Just last week you were saying how you think the contract would only be worth $8m?

@HallsWorthy

We were told they were still in active discussions at the time guidance was released. "The Company remains in active discussions with ILiAD Biotechnologies". How can you include revenues in the guidance when the contract wasn't signed and was still being discussed? How wasn't it in doubt? It doesn't make sense to me.

I think the drop the last few days is a mixture of stale bulls who bought earlier this year at around 10-13p after HVIVO was being egged up by investing groups and Proactive who were expecting a pump to previous prices and realised its not happening anytime soon, funds who are offloading into liquidity and investors who assumed guidance would be bumped up after Iliad confirmation. Turned into a bit of a sell the news event sadly. Positives still stand, massive trial, larger than expected.

Also looking over at the CRO's in the US, they are down a lot today too, Medpace down 24%, Icon down 8% so bad market day in general for CRO's.

Rio would be nice, those mines are mostly from their Arcadium purchase, seem to be focusing on Copper now but last year were in talks with the Democratic Republic of Congo’s government about developing Roche Dure deposit which would be one of the largest lithium assets in the world if built. much riskier territory than Ghana though

No one assumed it would all be in 2026, that is nonsensical, of course a 500 size trial starting around H2 will have majority revenues in 2027, none of what Mo said regarding that has been mistranslated. The issue is obviously the fact that the Iliad revenues for 2026 were already priced into revenue guidance which was NOT stated previously or expected by markets since the contract was supposedly not finalised yet. There is no boost to 2026 guidance from the Illiad contract and analysts can tally the numbers and figure out the discounted contract figure.

Neon, the divi cancellation was actually a positive. No one cares about a paltry dividend on a company barely making a profit currently

Yeah its a terrible look, would have been effectively finalised before results. Guidance must have been horrendous without it.

Large block sells coming in

Yes Seaport IPO is still a large positive development, LYT-200 is less important to PRTC than LYT-100 and Cobenfy royalties in the upcoming years. I think results for LYT-200 were disappointing but not a disaster but of course the company itself won't say they aren't pleased with the results, In the past i've seen biotech management try to spin total disasters in results to positives but ultimately the market is the judge and jury.

In terms of runway and cash balance, like you said this hinges on external financing for Celea, with some external financing we would see around a 4 year runway which is enough to read registrational results and bridges the gap between Cobenfy royalties when they start fully flowing, without it we might see a raise in a few years.

Just for peoples information, this is the relevant parts of the Elevra Q&A:

Lucas Dow, Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer, Elevra Lithium: "I wouldn’t want to necessarily speculate, but in short, the way that the existing JV is structured is that it requires us to contribute the lion’s share of the capital, and it’s not equitable. We’ve got a great relationship with the Atlantic folks, so we’re continuing to work through on that. Until a decision to be able to advance moves forward, there’s no substantial cash outflows required at Ewoyaa, so we’ll just continue to work through that. As you said, a decision to proceed to construction will require a recasting of the JV structure, particularly when you look across the suite and strength of growth opportunities we’ve got within the rest of the Elevra portfolio."

"As we mentioned earlier in the call, Ewoyaa, again, we like the project. It’s a fantastic deposit. Really, the JV structure as it’s currently constituted doesn’t work for us, so something will need to shift in that space. Then I think we’d assess that project on that basis. I wouldn’t want to speculate until we’ve been able to recast that JV agreement."

It's down because the AML results are worse than the December 2025 ASH topline.

December topline: 38% combined CR, 97% disease control, and mOS of 13.2 months at the proposed Phase 2 dose.

Today's press release gives RP2D AML numbers of 30.8% composite CR and mOS of 8.2 months (both still immature, but the anchor has clearly moved in the wrong direction).

The company has also pivoted to make R/R HR-MDS the lead indication, which reads as a tacit concession that AML isn't strong enough to carry the story on its own. The problem is the MDS dataset behind the pivot is only n=11 (45.5% ORR, 27.3% CR, mOS 6.4 months immature), and Faron's bexmarilimab + AZA in the same R/R HR-MDS setting is posting 63–79% ORR and mOS of 14.5 months in a larger cohort (n=32), and is already moving into a registrational Phase 2/3. CR rates are actually roughly comparable between the two, but ORR and survival clearly favour bexmarilimab on a cross-trial read.

The one thing holding up here is the safety data, top of the line and better than bexmarilimab, but I think investors are being put off by softer efficacy on a larger, more mature dataset

ALL said in the last report that the disagreement over funding with Elevra will go to Arbitration, so perhaps once the arbitration case is over, we might have some clarity on the Elevra situation. It's obvious Elevra aren't interested anymore, they've pivoted to Canada/NA and aren't interested in capex on mines in third world jurisdictions. Saying that, Ewoyaa is still a top quality resource and its NPV hasn't changed since the DFS. This is still a takeover target.

In terms of Assore, its hard to see what their position is here, it seems they are happy holding a stake in Atlantic for now but in the last 2 years they have focused on Copper and rare metals investing in Marimaca Copper and Vision Blue Resources respectively. It would not be expensive for them at all to buy out ALL with their stake if they wanted. Perhaps they are waiting for FID. Funding is another question, placement coming up if the arbitration case doesn't go our way, or perhaps they can secure a JV in some form.

Agreed, I think its the funds selling. The fact is, the price stopped rising when ProActive (do not trust these guys) released the Mo interview when he said the Iliad revenues were already priced into guidance for 2026 which was not expected or stated previously. I think people did the math and were not impressed by that fact. Still, I'm holding and if it goes back down below 8p I will be adding.

Elevra announced their pivot to focus on North America assets since the merger last year.

😂😂😂Insane market reaction to a positive RNS. Seems like a sell the news event for some reason.

Right, low bed utilisation has effected profitability and with the Traws contract and now Iliad contract, this should be enough to break even this year. Next year with the 500 count, would mean bed utilisation is near 100% for the full year and the acquisitions will start to turn profitable ("CRS remains on track to become profitable in 2026"). Cavendish expects "reported operating profitability" to return in 2028 but the Iliad contract of 500 is more than the analysts expected.

@tenobas Average Phase II trials don't have 2000 particiants? Oncology phase II has the low hundreds and infectious disease Phase II like Cidara usually have less than 300 participants. For infectious dieases like Whooping cough it would be near impossible to conduct a Phase III trial outside of HCT since its extremely rare to catch for normal populations, the trial would take years and years and the results would be less accurate. This is the largest HCT trial in history and validate the HCT approach to Phase III trials, they can speed up trial deliveries and the FDA see these trials as more accurate for infectious disease readouts.

Also I have no idea where you got your costs from... Hvivo is EBITDA profitable outside of last years costs for their acquisitions and new Canary Wharf facility and the cost per participant isnt hard to estimate, there are previous trials to go by, this will generate more than £20 million at a minimum over the next 2 years. Bed utilisation rates will now be close to 100% in 2027.

So everything you typed literally false slop. Nice try

Must be funds selling, surely. Crazy

Just listened to that interview, so the Iliad contract was included in 2026 guidance. But will have a big effect on 2027 revenues with beds fully occupied going into 2028.

Yeah should be 12p+. Maybe some struggling funds are using the liquidity to exit some of their positions. Still early days today