Member Info for ThetaDecay

Just to clarify, LYT-100 is also oral but taken 3 times a day compared to Ofev which is taken two times a day. But when looking at the pricing there is a massive gap for LYT-100. Ofev costs around $14,000 a month to insurers, Jascayd costs around $16,000 a month whereas generic pirfenidone can be as low as $6000 per month so there is a gap here that LYT-100 can fill, all the other next gen drugs entering this space, including inhaled versions like Avalon is trialling will be priced on the upper end of the range. Assuming efficacy can compete with ofev and Jascayd then there is an open goal for LYT-100 for at least 5 years of non-generic competition.

I think the $4b is mostly from Ofev (Nintedanib) and Boehringer's new IPF drug Nerandomilast which both show superior efficacy to pirfenidone but are priced a lot higher. LYT-100 will be taking generic pirfenidone nad Esbriet TAM along with new cases where insurance companies might not want to pay the price of Ofev and see LYT-100 as a much better choice than standard pirfenidone. I don't think LYT-100 will hit anywhere near $4 billion like Ofev because its not oral and the efficacy is worse off but would be a sensible choice something like the NHS to perscribe since its a solid middle ground. All of this speculation of course.

Yeah, Esbriet (non generic pirfenidone) was generating $1.2 billion a year in revenue and since generics opened up to the market its now only generating $100M per year. But LYT-100 has around 5 years without generics assuming things stay the same (2030 approval to 2035 majority of patents expire). This could generate close to $1 billion a year in sales if next gen IPF drugs will be priced a lot higher than LYT-100, opening up a middle ground between generic pirfenidone and next gen drugs like nerandomilast and others in late stage trials that are priced a lot higher, I think deuterated pirfenidone could sit in a good middle ground for doctors and Insurance companies to pick up. First step, is getting the funding required for 2030 approval timeline.

I agree, if Celea IPO'd I think we'd see around a $1 billion market cap as long as they get enough funding for a runway that would see them to approval around 2030. Approval around 2030 would see at least 5 years of exclusivity before generic versions could enter the market. Only problem right now is funding for a runway, once thats sorted I think we might see an IPO. Celea would definitely be a buyout candidate due to the derisked nature of Pirfenidone. Would be good to get another program going since LYT-100 is currently a single asset with a single target which tends not to be too popular for Biotech listings since there is no pipeline beyond the current IPF trial, also have to take into account that generic Pirfenidone has existed for a few years now so they would need to price competitively even if deuteration improves safety endpoints. Still would be great to see an IPO for Celea once funding is sorted.

*CNBC

Yeah trading now, over $1 billion market cap. Yahoo finance link for anyone who doesnt want to deal with CNN https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPTX/

Thanks for the clarification Golfnut, very bullish

Although its worth noting that Avalyn's pipeline is much more derisked compared to Seaport due to the fact they are using proven and commercial drugs but inhaled versions which means the likelihood of positive trial results is almost certain, Avalyn was also heavily backed by Novo Nordisk, so different situations but I am feeling positive today

Avalyn Pharma priced their IPO at $18 per share like Seaport and when trading opened it instantly went to $26 per share. I think we will see a similar thing with Seaport here. GLA

Just under $1 billion Market cap at $18 per share. Nice

ADEPT readouts for Alzheimer's disease psychosis will be a big if they are successful and then the phase 3 trial for Bipolar disorder in 2027 with Cobenfy as the main drug will be another major readout. Also Cobenfy is being slated to be rolled out in China by Q3 this year which will be another boost.

Not good

T212 will still find a way to lend to shorters with or without my shares, at least I can benefit from their foolishness, the real bad shorters (i.e hedge funds/banks and instutions) don't use T212 to short, only small fish and gamblers. I'm okay with earning some yield that won't have any effect on the long term performance of my shares. But we all have our own limits and it's totally fine if you don't agree!

For ITM i'm being paid about 1.8-2% yield for turning lending on. T212 take all the risk, I can still sell when I want and get the price I sold at, never had an issue. Yield depends on short interest and overnight fees for shorters.

Exactly, I have turned on the option to lend my owned shares on both T212 and Etoro accounts because I earn a yield from that. For heavily shorted stocks (above 10% short interest) I can earn something like 4% yield annually from shares without dividends. I don't see a problem with it if you explicitly sign up to using the lending service.

Ahh I didn't notice, but it says the date of the transaction was April 24th which is today. Perhaps an off the market sell?

Professor Brendan Buckley sold 2,017,000 shares this morning, half his holdings. Explains the drop this morning. He will be standing down as a director too.

New Claude model seems to predict majority in 2027, which makes sense to me:

hVIVO ILiAD Contract — Revenue Split Analysis

Contract signed 22 April 2026 for the world's first pivotal Phase III pertussis HCT (BPZE1), 500+ participants at Canary Wharf. Cavendish describes it as hVIVO's largest-ever contract by value, and given the scale vs. the prior £11.5m RSV record plus the bacterial lab work, a £20–25m range looks realistic.

Execution timeline is bed-constrained. Canary Wharf has 50 beds (expandable to 70), shared with the Traws flu study (H1 2026) and the remaining £40m orderbook. First 3–4 months post-signing go to protocol finalisation, FDA/MHRA/EMA regulatory prep, bacterial assay validation, and FluCamp recruitment — so meaningful dosing doesn't start until late Q3/Q4 2026. Pertussis HCT design also requires vaccination → 4–8 week immune response window → challenge → 14-day quarantine → follow-up, so each participant consumes 2–3 months of calendar time.

Predicted revenue split (full contract):

2026: ~25–30% — setup, regulatory, assay validation, late-year first cohorts

2027: ~60–65% — peak execution; Traws is done, beds free up for ILiAD

2028: ~10–15% — final cohorts, close-out, database lock

Isolating 2026 vs 2027 only: ~33% / ~67% — a 2:1 weighting to 2027.

In £ terms (assuming a £20–25m contract):

2026: ~£5–7.5m

2027: ~£12–16m

2028: ~£2–4m

Revenue recognition under IFRS 15 tracks activity/cost, so the revenue split mirrors the execution split — if anything slightly more skewed to 2027 since setup work generates lower revenue per unit of time than active dosing. Upfront cash from ILiAD sits as a contract liability and unwinds as work progresses.

Key risks to the split: (1) if the 70-bed expansion is live and prioritised for ILiAD, 2026 could reach 35–40%; (2) regulatory or assay delays push 2026 to ~20% with more spillover to 2028; (3) cancellation/milestone dynamics can create lumpiness but don't change the overall shape.

Bottom line: this is a 2027 story, not a 2026 story. At £20–25m, FY27 could see £12–16m of ILiAD revenue alone — materially above current consensus — but investors expecting the bulk of that uplift in FY26 numbers are likely to be disappointed.

The device is okay, but I don't think there is a moat here. I can't see a path to profitability and now dilution looks inevitable, warrants at 20p won't generate the cash they needed. The plumbing rollout in the US has obviously been a disaster and isn't a viable business model (there is a reason plumbing are family run local businesses because they don't work profitably in large areas, even more so for the US), a lot of competition for leak detection devices including new AI entrants in the last year, insurance companies like Ondo because Ondo carries the cost.

Agreed that its cheap here.