Member Info for ThetaDecay

It would be a dual listing like BP

Logically, it would be a win win for the government. Cheaper energy, more tax revenue and domestic oil supply in cases like now but attaching logic to the Labour Party is always a bad bet. They are probably also scared of the Green party and their anti-oil stance even though the Green party is shifting from pro-environmentalism to pro-sectarian politic

Thats exactly why they would look for an off-ramp if it means regime survival.

And its still cheap under 300 even without rising oil prices.

I still have hopes it will be ratified at some point in Q2 this year. But still no word on who the bidder was (except that it had no prior association with ALL), no word on the bid price, no word on funding for Ivory Coast exploration licenses, still disputes with Elevra for funding with arbitration likely, balance sheet dwindling (forced to close their Perth office early). Again, the same old earnings report with no real positive messaging.

You can accuse people of "deramping" and wanting to buy back in cheaper all you like, I've held now for over 2 and a half years and have no interest in buying more, I already topped up early last year. I love how these rampers actually think ramping or "deramping" on these boards has any effect on the share price, nothing matters until ratification and funding, the share price will do its thing when that is announced.

I knew he was talking nonsense ever since last November when he called me a de-ramper and fake shareholder because I said that ratification wouldn't happen in that parliamentary session. He was sure it would be ratified last November. Looking increasingly unlikely to be ratified this session now too by the looks of it.

Still in a dispute with Elevra too it seems. Looking at the Elevra section, it seems its going to go under "arbitration" so the courts will get involved.

"Activities to secure funding to meet the Company’s Project development obligations will be advanced post-ratification

of the Ewoyaa Mining Lease. This is a critical component to the Board making its Project FID."

So it seems no FID until funding is secured and offtakes are secured too.

Also I would recommend to switch to Claude for your AI, its much better than gemini or chatgpt

What exactly do you intend to get out of that? They are there to serve to people of Ghana and won't give you any information that is not already public

Please don't waste their time by emailing or calling them about ratification, it obviously won't make a difference and there is no benefit from British people pestering Ghanaian ministry about their stock holding ratiifcation, they will not give you any special information that is not already public.

If you are planning on holding for at least a few years then is a great price to top up. I started buying oil companies back in November after reading Goehring & Rozencwajg resource market commentary. This is all a cyclical transition, oil price bottomed and Saudi production was artificially kept low during this period which is ending. After reading their two hour commentary, I sold most of my gold miners and bought a lot of oil majors, their analysis is very informative and seems to be holding true

Or maybe Trump won't wont touch North Korea because they already have nukes and the US allowed them to obtain and build nukes so it is too late to take any action against them. Also as others have said, North Korea is a Chinese vassal state, the only reason the Kim Monarchy is still chugging along is due to Chinese support and funding. Either way, I agree with the previous comment, this is about weakening Iran and Chinese proxies. Most of the oil China receives is from low-cost sanctioned Venezuelan and Iranian oil off the books, a coincidence that those are the two countries the US is targeting... Its all geopolitics and the US admin knew regime change was always a near 0% chance.

Iran still have over 50% of their ballistic missile stockpile left but that is not the major blocker for Hormuz, its the Iranian speedboats that can't be stopped by escorts or anti-missile capabailities. I agree that Hormuz will remain closed for a while and oil price will remain elevated, but its not the same global shock as the Russian oil sanctions. In other news, Trump says he is thinking about removing sanctions from Russian oil to help the oil price. If Venezuela is any hint, Trump might be looking to take Kharg island from Iran, without Kharg island the Iranian regime will not be able to export its oil overseas and control of the most dangerous part of Hormuz would fall under US protection. US and US oil companies built Kharg island during the Shah's rule in the late 50s and like Venezeula, he might see it as rightful US resources. Either way, I feel like Hormuz isn't going to return to full traffic for a while and oil will stay elevated.

Harbour is cheap even if Oil doesn't rise and i'm very comfortable in my holdings here and will continue to add under 300p

*went up

To be fair, we want up more than other oil majors.

Ultimately Trump needs this to be over by Mid-terms, the oil prices need to be back down by then or he will struggle and potentially lose congress and the senate. At this point, the Iranian regime is extremely weakened, no navy, IRGC infrastructure destroyed, drone and missile factories destroyed, half their stockpile gone, Turkey, Qatar and Gulf countries that were former allies now completely against them (Qatar kicking out Iranian consulate and bans Hamas from their territory). Although I do feel for the Iranian people if this doesn't result in regime change, they will be left with an even more extreme, improverished and paranoid IRGC with all the backwards laws from Qom.

2020 GAMAAN survey found 7.7% of Iranian respondents identified as Zoroastrian, many practicing secretly. 90% muslim number is highly inflated for many reasons, most you would expect living under an oppressive Islamic theocracy that murders thousands of its own civilians for not towing the Ayatollah's line. Iran follows the dhimma framework, conversion from Islam remains prohibited with a potential death penalty, tax rule dictating that if a family member converted to Islam, all inheritance would go to that convert.

Its the China pushback that makes me a little nervous due to the deals that Ghana is signing with the CCP. But I agree in EarEyeAm that ultimately there are a lot of players that have their own agenda's and lobbying efforts. We will fiind out on Monday, hopefully it will get passed

ValueS, getting a dividend and using that to buy more HBR is not the same as a buyback, it doesnt reduce share count, it doesn't make dividend yield higher for the same total amount, it doesn't improve share metrics.

Buybacks are shareholder returns that are accretive to share metrics permanently, dividends are one off shareholder returns, so at the right price I always prefer buybacks than a larger dividend as a long term shareholder, and I think HBR is cheap enough currently to benefit from buybacks. I agree that debt reduction should be a priority. I agree with Sekforde that an equal buyback/dividend with a focus on debt reduction for the next few years would be optimal. Obviously there are some older holders nearing retirement that prefer straight up dividends but I think 5.5% is very reasonable compared to other oil majors.