Member Info for ThetaDecay

Frasers have their own distribution and logistics in the UK and its much more efficient than Ingenuity. Would be surprised if they switched over. They said they have capacity for 1 million, not that they are outputting 1 million. Its sets the stage so third parties can now use Ingenuity without worrying about output and automation efficiency. Good move

"THG Ingenuity’s THG Fulfil offshoot has announced a partnership with robotics provider, Libiao, which, it claims, is set to boost its capacity by 75%. 430 T-sorting robots will be operational at its Manchester warehouse facility in September, prividing THG Fulfil with the capacity to output c1 million units per day"

Actually positive news for Ingenuity, hopefully they can start their automation upgrades across all their wahrehouses so Ingenuity can start to catch up with competition. Remember THG pays 10-15% more on distribution and logistics to Ingenuity compared to competition when adjusting for GMV

"Discussions on fiscal terms with the Ghanaian government have concluded; the revised lease is expected to be reviewed in Parliament by late August."

Sounds positive

I would have thought RR will be hardly effected by another Middle East flare up but if the whole market is down due to tensions then could be a chance to add

Lots of long term good news the last month clouded by short term noise, so I see it as an adding opportunity if it dips enough.

GGG, correct on the net debt amount and there will be plans to pay it down with the FCF later this year, moulding recently did a partial repayment and gave himself a non-interest bearing convertible loan (set to convert into shares after October 2025). THG reduced its net total leverage from 3.2x to 2.2x last year and hopefully will bring it down to 1.5x next year.

For EBITDA, its realistic to think at least a 10% improvement will be happening this year (even assuming revenue doesn't start to pick up) with Whey prices set to go down, F1 marketing splurge over and the 2024 exit from the lowest margin regions.

Assuming a relatively tame base-case where:

1. £92m adjusted EBITDA grows 10% in 2025

2. Capex stays ~£20m.

3. Lease payments ~£22m.

4. Interest ~£50–55m.

Then THG could realistically achieve £40–60m FCF in 2025. So £40 million FCF is a base case.

The reason FCF is only +£400k in 2024 is due to £39.3m being spent on Demerger-related costs + Exiting costs on low margin markets. FCF was artificially depressed by necessary restructuring to clean up the business which we won't see in next results.

Buybacks + debt repayments likely to come from increased FCF later this year. No acquisitions happening since the Fitch Credit rating upgrade recently specified that its on condition of no acquisitions.

APN management will learn from Moulding's mistakes, thats for sure. When THG was in the same business cycle as APN 5-10 years ago it was doing the right things too. The mistakes came when they became the market leader and so the growth will naturally slow down unless you make good acquisitions. He not only made bad acquisitions, he never turned the company to profit during a period of transition where thats a must. When a growth company becomes a market leader it turns to profitability and dividends to keep the market happy. Old Mouldy did neither and so we have the current desperate situation that has played out.

The reason APN is priced at a premium is because they are growing market share, have a small base for revenue growth and have strong forward EPS growth. APN is in a different business cycle to THG, APN is just starting its international expansion and is much more growth focused.

Buying THG would instantly de-rate APN and change their business outlook

The list of upcoming games for devolver is looking great. Baby Steps looks to be doing what Plucky Squire failed at, gaining a lot of streamer attention.

Enter the Gungeon 2 will be a hit since the original is one of the best seller Roguelike, Human Fall Flat 2 is another top sequel from a well selling game.

Then you have Skate Story and Botsu (Fall guys voxel type game) coming out which both have potential to gain traction and oversell.

I like Devolver here with their upcoming catalogue. A lot of room for upward surprises

And they always seem to appear with fake takeover rumours that are easily debunkable

Whenever rampers suddenly appear on this BB the day after the pump, it always seems to reverse the gains.... Wonder why

Seems like good news for Domains.

"TIG has been awarded a 10-year contract to manage and operate Colombia’s .co domain, which currently has more than 3 million active registrations. The contract was granted by Colombia’s Ministry of Information and Communications Technology. It will be executed by Equipo PuntoCo, a new joint venture formed between Team Internet and Colombian domain registrar CCI REG. Under the agreement, Equipo PuntoCo will retain eight percent of gross revenues from domain registrations and renewals."

True, it does seem very cheap at these prices even after a 10% rise. I've been accumulating Octopus Renewables but I think I'm going to start adding to SEIT here. Could be a buyout target with this discount and coverage.

The cash warrants have a 31st July expiry and the prepaid is not publicly disclosed but I assume the second tranch would match the cash warrants 31st July. I don't see how investor faith will be lost because of share price swings, long term MET1 holds the same rights, the same land and the same potential. If the assets have high NAV potential then that won't change. In terms of the constant dilution and warrants, well thats just a case of every early stage exploration/development miner, it comes with the game and doesn't mean the price won't rise as it gets closer to production. When I invest, I look for 1-5 year timeframes, not 1-6 months like rampers. I like the look of this company and its gone down enough to get me interested here but a lot of traders stuck in from higher prices.

Interesting this. The only issue is the 150-200% dilution still incoming from the prepaid warrants (post-consolidation). There are still 100–200 million prepaid warrants outstanding so this type of drip exercising/dilution can continue for another few months (obviously June 9th/10th 4.45 million cash warrants + 7.25 million prepaid won't be the norm). Lots of investors stuck now having bought at much higher prices the last few months. Might be a good buy once the most of the warrants have been exercised and the rampers slowly leave.

~Theta

Was reading the Zues piece about TIG Search division: "However, the company has taken action and accelerated its transition away from AFD and towards Related Search On Content (RSOC) and now sees profits returning to growth in 2026. In contrast, the market appears to be discounting this recovery."

But I don't see how RSOC is going to be successful here either. Google has completely disabled AFD's now but with Google rolling out their "AI Overview" panel on all queries and questions and the move to "clickless search" RSOC is going to be heavily negatively effected.

Google is shifting from being a search engine to an answer engine and in this, destroys TIG's Search business model.

"As publishers witness drops in traffic with limited compensation for their content, CTR and impression metrics may no longer be reliable key performance indicators. Instead, a larger focus is being put on direct partnerships, brand building, referrals and website trustworthiness. Email marketing and social channels like Reddit (RDDT) and Instagram (META) are also playing a bigger part, as well as pivoting to video via platforms like YouTube (NASDAQ:GOOGL) and TikTok (BDNCE). Elsewhere, the developments are changing the world of SEO and PPC. Strategies that once focused on keyword placement and backlink acquisition are now being optimized for schema markup and content that can be captured in AI/LLM sources or featured snippets."

RSOC is none of the above, its going to get less organic clicks as users get answers without clicking the related ads below. Google is also introducing quality requirements scanned by its AI engine so if RSOC pages host low‑value or AI-generated fluff, Google’s quality filters could suppress them entirely. This unironically will badly effect TIG since a lot of their domains is literally fluff. So we have a situation where they are claiming RSOC is the solution but in reality it will struggle now unless they close search or pivot their strategy entirely, yes its better 0 revenue under AFD but its not a solution like they are claiming.

Isnt it obvious, we've been in an extremely bullish descending wedge pattern for the last 7 months. We are finally breaking out, thanks MM for your wonderful work!!! (joking)

Anyone else waiting until ex-divi to buy up? I like the look of this at this price

Buybacks benefit all shareholders, all i'm saying is that MM will like buybacks since its a way to increase % total ownership without diluting, even if he doesn't care about the SP.

Buybacks are another financial instrument that MM can use to increase his % share in THG. Less shares of THG circulating means higher % he owns of the total company.