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Do people really believe that excuse from Greggs. I can name quite a few reasons why Greggs has peaked and none of them involve the weather :)

£40 million FCF would be basically the same as last years without the costs associated with restructuring/demerger and exiting markets. With the AGM results and what we are seeing with Whey costs, I don't think £70-100 million FCF is that unbelievable

Knowbodyyouknow, true but even 5% share reduction is positive for EPS and future dividends

Can do both if they achieve the FCF I think they will. Launch a £30 million buyback and then use $50-60 million to pay off debt

I think THG can make £70-100 million in FCF this year if the turnaround continues. Even just a £40 million buyback would remove just under 10% of the shares. £30 million buyback can remove over 50% of the current free float.

THG is in the process of being re-rated. It will take a few months up until September, there will be ups and downs (rarely does something go up in a straight line) but the turnaround is in play both for profits and revenues and the shorts can't change that fact. All that MM needs to do is follow the plan, let the turnaround play out and then announce shareholder returns in September (buybacks and hint towards dividend), its simple

Looking deeper into Ingenuity and what exactly they own/do. Basically every single hodgepodge THG service is now with Ingenuity it seems.

ILabs with Ingenuity: https://www.thgstudios.com/iLabs

THG Recycling ECO with Ingenuity: https://www.thg.eco/

THG Labs with Ingenuity: https://www.thglabs.com/

THG Fluently with Ingenuity: https://www.thgfluently.com/

THG Studios/THG Marketing with Ingenuity: https://www.thgstudios.com/

THG Cloud Services/ THG Data Centers/GPU as a Service is with Ingenuity: https://www.ingenuitycloudservices.com/products/

Basically Ingenuity does a lot more than I initially thought and is not just distribution and logistics and due to the interconnectedness of all these services with THG, I don't see this changing.

Yes the ADR has 0 institutional ownership. Basically dead, they need to switch primary listing ASAP and would partially solve a lot of things that are complained about here

The same people who claimed the RNS was terrible last week are now claiming THG isn't in a turnaround. makes you think

Beauty isn't doing badly. They exited non-core low-margin markets and so revenue reduction is expected, even so they've managed to reduce the revenue decline from previously quite a bit. As a result, we will see margin and profit increase in Beauty division. Good move that I was calling for last year. We need to turn to profit and FCF especially for Beauty

Got to agree with Stanley, 3-4% revenue reduction when they exited markets for beauty in Asia to increase margins and profit, is expected and is actually decent. Will make comparables in the future better too.

Seems decent but wasn't too amazed with the LiveRamp MarTech partnership. LiveRamp is old tech and all the top companies are using the new platforms like Zeta Global and The Trade Desk. But still LiveRamp is better than nothing so should see some improvements in advertising

How's Mobico going?

September Results:

Matt Moulding swaggered onto the THG stage, clutching a Myprotein shaker like a microphone. “Big news” he grinned, “for once, we didn’t torch all the cash!” The crowd gasped. Matt clicked the slide: profit. Real profit. Then another: dividends. Suddenly, a confetti cannon fired, pelting the audience with 10% off Lookfantastic vouchers and notes reading: “Hell has officially frozen over.”

Truly amazing results from Cidara Therapeutics (CDTX on Nasdaq) for their CD388 drug 2b NAVIGATE trial.

We are talking about a drug that can have up to 40-60% more effectiveness than traditional influenza vaccines. It has 28 weeks protection which is better than mostly all seasonal influenza vaccines on the market. It's not a vaccine so it works even in those with immunosuppression. No adverse effects or any safety signals and it has broad universal coverage of mostly all strains, it's effective across seasonal, pandemic, and even resistant strains.

Cidara up 150% since they announced the positive results.

Congrats to HVIVO for running the UK arm of the trials!

Also worth noting, Glanbia plc share price seems to have hit a bottom too, market is predicting peak costs are coming to an end. Good for THG FCF

Short squeeze + retail interest from all the news yesterday. Squeeze can go on for a while here

I can still short on Etoro if I wanted to.

Glowacki, what on earth are you saying. How will profit not increase this year when exceptionals are over, low margin markets exited, whey prices coming down and at least £40 million of FCF is coming.

I think Phase II was good but it wasn't a knockout like Cidara that would send it double. Puretech are meeting with FDA Q3 2025 to discuss Phase III details with the goal of initiating Phase III by end of 2025. I think they could do it alone but would require dilution and shorts can see the runway doesn't match with the phase III funding required so having some form of partnership will validate it and remove some funding worries. Phase II trial is over so what bad news could come from LYT-100 now?

Also worth to note, most of the shorts entered in April, 2-3 weeks before the Phase II trial results, only a small increase since then which tells me it was a simple bet against the Phase II that didn't work out (70+ phase II trials don't meet primary endpoint but LYT-100 did). So I really don't think this is puretech specific, again PRTC has lower short on a free float % than the average pre-commercial biotech.