Member Info for ThetaDecay

For additional info on the Vor situation:

"... Exclusive license agreement granting Vor Bio global rights (excluding China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan) to develop and commercialize telitacicept, a novel dual-target fusion protein approved in China for generalized myasthenia gravis (gMG), systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE), and rheumatoid arthritis (RA).Vor Bio will pay RemeGen an initial payment of $125 million consisting of an upfront payment of $45 million as well as $80 million of warrants to purchase common stock with an exercise price of $0.0001 per share. The agreement also provides for potential regulatory and commercial milestones exceeding $4 billion, in addition to tiered royalties.

"Vor Bio separately announced that it has entered into a securities purchase agreement for a private placement in public equity financing (the “PIPE”) that is expected to result in gross proceeds of approximately $175 million, before deducting expenses. Pursuant to the terms of the securities purchase agreement, at the closing of the PIPE, Vor Bio will issue prefunded warrants (the “Warrants”) to purchase an aggregate of 700,000,000 shares of common stock at a purchase price of $0.25 per Warrant."

PRTC owns 2.1% of Vor so only $1.5 million worth of equity, so will make no difference to Puretech but still shows what happens when they get funding, $50 million + when taking into account the PIPE (for a previously $25 million company that is A LOT).

The Barclays broker downgrade yesterday was bullish. Same trick they did with Rolls Royce near the bottom in 2023. If you know, you know

A better example is Cidara Therapeutics. They are making an influenza antiviral that isn't a vaccine but has more effectiveness, lasts longer and works on any strain without immunocomprisation. Recently passed its Phase II with flying colours, went from $150 million MC to $630 million through a institutional share raise after results. Now has enough funding for whole phase III pipeline. Shares more than double, thats what can happen when runway and success worries can be fixed.

Mostly all pre commercial biotechs are shorted. In the US market the average free float short for pre-commercial biotechs is 8%. Puretech has less than 5% short, so comparatively less. Nearly 50% of Phase III trials fail, so by default hedge funds love to short biotechs, this has become even more prominent with the new FDA and biotech bear market. 3 year cash runway isn't realistic unless they find a partner for Phase III trial or get institutional funding via share offering but that won't happen unless they switch primary listing to Nasdaq. Switching to US listing will solve the broker problem, it will allow Puretech to get institutional ownership, retail interest and a sophisticated biotech market. Currently US listing has no institutional or fund trades, its not in any biotech ETF/Fund in the US and it garners hardly any retail interest. That won't change unless they move to NDQ.

Turns out Stanley was actually right with criminals shorting THG 🤔

Insane amount of paper/news coverage on THG today. Lots of people will be giving THG a second look today. Revenue growth is less important to me than margin growth which should show later this year due to exiting of low margin countries, whey prices declining over summer and higher % of own products rather than white label sales on beauty side

Barclays broker note reminds me when Barclays reduced their price target to equal weight 145p on Rolls Royce near the bottom (13/06/2023). Trying to give time to get their clients shorts closed

All over the news. MA will be smiling

https://www.drapersonline.com/news/thg-returns-to-revenue-growth

https://www.retailgazette.co.uk/blog/2025/06/thg-revenue-growth/

https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/news/thg-beats-fears-to-deliver-much-improved-performance/706092.article

OSG, they said in results in April that the Asia exits had an effect on FCF for that year. Why do you think when the costs have already been added in previous results do you think there will be more exceptionals? This happened last year

OSG, they aren't going to mention FCF, buybacks or dividends at the AGM. They need another positive half, they will announce during H2 Results in September. FCF will be there now, this RNS confirms it. Exceptionals related to Asia exit were mostly covered in last results and contributed to neutral FCF, I don't think that will feed through much in next results.

Shorters are panicking. The RNS was exactly what we wanted here. Showing signs of turnaround, margin improvement and a better H2 coming up.

I see trees of green 🎵

Solid RNS. What we wanted to see. Beauty margins going up, revenue growth re-accelerating and FY 2025 guidance remains the same with a strong chance of a beat. 30p on open?

Overall Outlook

Improved trading in Q2 across both Beauty and Nutrition segments. Group has returned to constant currency (CCY) revenue growth. FY 2025 guidance remains unchanged.

THG Beauty:

Q2 revenue decline narrowing to -2.0% to -3.0% (Q1 was -9.8%) → significant QoQ improvement.

Beauty Retail (majority of the segment) showed resilience:

UK sales strongest since Q1 2024.

Market share gains (per Circana data).

Impact from exiting low-margin Asia/Europe markets ends in Q3 (less drag going forward).

Own-brand revenue temporarily down due to order timing, expected to rebound in H2.

THG Nutrition:

Q2 revenue growth expected at +5.0% to +7.0% (Q1: +0.1%) → fastest growth since Q1 2022.

Strong new customer growth and online performance.

Licensing + offline channels expected to sell ~45 million units, worth ~£170m retail value in FY 2025.

Protein prices elevated, but some recent softening observed.

THG is undervalued but it doesn't change the fact that comparing THG to APN/Warpaint based on Market Cap and pure number of sales is just not how the market works. Are these sales making profit? Are these sales growing or stagnating? Are margins improving? Is the company in growth/expansion phase or market leader/profitability phase? Those questions matter when you compare like for like valuations. Comparing THG to Warpaint is like comparing a house in suburb of Birmingham is so much cheaper than a smaller house in Central London.

Exactly, not just Enterprise value which is what actually matters in terms of market cap but also its like asking why a House in Birmingham is so much cheaper than a house in Brighton. Just illogical

Also 0.61% short is one of their lower short positions, they have positions as high as 1-2% short

GLG is currently shorting 33 UK Listed shares, down from 41. If you look at GLG's shorts in the past, they close after upward momentum, not before. They closed ABRDN short on 10th June, that was after ABRDN went 70% up from the bottom and closed on the day it went up 10%.

Since they manage nearly 40 short positions in the market, we don't know what type of strategies GLG is using, having an increase of 0.1% in their 6% short isn't necessarily a sign they are bearish, could be anything.

https://www.lse.co.uk/share-prices/short-positions/funds/glg-partners-lp.html

Its an off-ramp. Best case situation.

https://x.com/sentdefender/status/1937200227116810270

I've had the same happen to me during reverse stock splits in the past. Avantium NV had the same and also Nexxen International when it moved to Nasdaq and did a stock split, both times thought I was rich for a second haha.

Had a feeling we would move up to 30p around the time of the AGM but with geopolitical events occuring not sure if we get there