Member Info for ThetaDecay

Nike turnaround not looking good, demand set to stay subdued in the next year. On top of that you have shipping costs going up now due to the war.

We have seen other shoe/sports retailers doing terribly in the US and Australia. Look at Accent Group (JD for Australia) results last week on the ASX and check its share price. Market is turning its nose at this whole sector, can't see a sustainable revenue rebound for at least another year

Https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/1073332/octopus-renewables-infrastructure-trust-agrees-to-acquire-new-irish-solar-farm-1073332.html

"Power generated at Ballymacarney is sold under a 15-year renewable energy supply deal with Microsoft." Shows the demand for renewable energy and Octopus's portfolio is going strong. €27 million for 32.6 MW extension is a decent deal. With customers like Microsoft who are looking for renewable sources to power their AI Data center expansion, I feel safe in the demand for Renewables.

If they return to growth this year, show the positive FCF and margin/EPS growth, announce buybacks and hint to dividends next year then we are getting a lot closer to catching up with Warpaints valuation. A lot of those I think we will start to see in the next results.

Good insight

Will we hit 30p by AGM 🤔

Stanley you have to remember Warpaint is growing market share, growing revenues 15% (25% in US), has EPS growth of 32% (3 year EPS CAGR of 80%) and is paying a 2.5% dividend that is growing over 10% a year. THG will have to start doing all of that to get a valuation close to warpaint, when its currently losing market share, negative revenue growth and will hopefully be the first year of profits. I think realistically THG is worth at least 60p but a lot of work will need to be done to get it close to APN/Warpaint valuation, not saying its impossible but doubt MM can do that.

For everything wrong with THG, its cheap as chips at this price.

Your broker would do an automatic swap to the Nasdaq shares so not any serious implications. A first step would be to switch to primary listing on Nasdaq like Wise recently announced and then later they can cancel London listing to save on costs.

US listing is the place to be for biotechs compared to the rest of the world since it offers a lot of institutional interest, it makes little sense as a US company to have a primary listing in London. If it was a UK based biotech my opinion would be different but it seems like an easy value unlock for a re-rating as a Boston based company.

Stanley, serious question. Do you really think criminal hedgefunds are employing people to type on London South East to get people to sell shares in THG? Do you really think a £300 million company traded on the main market can be effected by something that someone posts on this board with all the liquidity and institutional trading? You must be bordering on mental delusion. This isn't a microcap sub £50 mill share on AIM.

The FT article mostly flagged misclassification of revenue within THG's Ingenuity business and was focused on bad accounting in regards to Ingenuity. So this shouldn't have any effect on accounting now Ingenuity is not part of THG.

From 2023?

https://www.ft.com/content/b367f38d-5b02-4504-a119-857a8b830693

Not so much false accounting but suggested THG accounting choices could mislead stakeholders and potentially breach audit standards.

Https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2025-03-17/zijin-mining-eyes-global-expansion-it-boosts-gold-copper-and-lithium

Zijin mining are interested in Ewoyaa, they were one of the signatories of the illegal mining/infrastructure resolution agreement a few months ago. Lots of connections to CCP party members who have recently signed deals with the NDC. As said before, Atlantic Lithium and Ewoyaa has been bought up in their conversations and Zijin Mining are just what the NDC are looking for to develop Ewoyaa and the expand beyond just the mine into value-adds on the supply chain. Zijin won't need government support or dilution to get Ewoyaa to production and the Miif fund will have a lot more secure investment partner long term.

So the question is, how much are they going to buy us out for? Are they going to wait until after ratification? Are they going to go the greedy route and won't ratify this year and then buy out on the cheap/bankruptcy. These Chinese players can be ruthless and we all now by know the NDC will do whatever lines up their own pockets.

I think it might be time to switch primary listing to Nasdaq, they are a Boston company after all. Would get more institutional involvement and more analyst/retail coverage. Agree with Seaport IPO, would be a good value unlock.

Late shorters will be looking to exit. Michael Murray in Chicago with Matt, they've been talking for sure

Oil/Energy prices spiking = good for renewables. I think SEIT won't go below 46p again, extremely discounted

Ingenuity isn't THG. Check my post yesterday in response to GGG and that would explain why I invested. Basically, THG is undervalued, the market can't see the FCF due to demerger and high chance of turnaround this year. One thing I don't like is the Ingenuity contract and conflict of interest but the positives for a turnaround outweigh the negatives.

My figures just assume the distribution and logistics part. Are THG using Ingenuity for Advertising/marketing too? This is why it would be nice to get more details about the contract

* I wouldn't be on this board if I wasn't bullish on THG.

Anyways, I said this is great news for Ingenuity, and actually does away with some of my negative points in previous posts about Ingenuity. Will this result in a better contract for THG in the future? Who knows

Davffed, I've been through the figures before and happy to discuss it. I don't see a problem.

THG revenue (2024): £1.688 billion. Payments to Ingenuity: £462.9 million. That’s ~27.4% of revenue, and if THG’s GMV is not far above this revenue figure (which it likely isn’t for owned brands), then this spend is high relative to market benchmarks. Frasers Derby distribution center is actually top notch, and if you wanted to do the deep dive into their total costs you would guess/estimate it stands belowor around 10% of their revenue which is efficient

Companies using third-party logistics providers or integrated platforms (e.g. Shopify Fulfillment, Amazon FBA, Ocado Logistics, Next Total Platform) typically pay:

3–6% of GMV for fulfillment/logistics

+2–5% for added services like platform, marketing, payment processing, etc.

Total: ~10–15% of GMV, depending on complexity and scale

So yes — THG paying ~27% of revenue (effectively ~25–30% of GMV) is significantly higher.

We are all here to have nuanced discussions, I wouldn't be on this board if I was bullish on THG.