Member Info for ThetaDecay

Close to 13% I think at current prices. I don't think any of this is due to the board, purely the new NDC government, greed for better royalties, governmental deals with China and wanting a larger company that can provide long term funding without asking for the wallet.

"We have written to the minister of lands and natural resources for urgent help on the fiscals. If not, the project cannot proceed," he added.

This just supports what I was saying previously. The NDC want a company that can self-fund and has the capital to handle the needs across the whole supply chain. Asking the NDC to help fund this is playing right into the ears of those in the party who are happy to wait another year until Atlantic goes bust or gets bought out by a larger company or Chinese firm who can actually go the whole route without a need for Ghana funding or share dilution which completely ruins the MIFF investment rounds. (They are in discussion with Chinese government about funding + buying mines and Infra)

I highly doubt NDC will agree to any deal if Atlantic hasnt got the means of funding, there is already massive discontent that Atlantic owns the rights anyway

A 3p dividend would barely cover EPS. Assuming results are positive, why would a responsible company pay a dividend that takes up mostly all their EPS and near half their FCF when they are still paying £45-50 mill in interest payments each year and have over 1.2 billion shares outstanding.

1.2 billion!!!!! Get that number down to get the float in a better spot so price increases can actually happen without massive effort, pay down debt like a responsible long term company to improve EPS and EBITDA which can encourage an actual stable and growing dividend in the future.

Why would Supermarkets buy THG? Buying it instantly limits its potential and would mean rival supermarkets will destock completely. On top of that, Tesco and others already sell own-brand Whey protein and nutrition products. Why would they want to buy a generic-esque nutrition co for so much money when they already own their own in-house brands.

Big Mike and MM are friends. They have had business co-operation in the past, a year ago Sports Direct bought THG's luxury goods websites and announced partnerships.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-13564537/Dream-team-odd-couple-Ashley-Moulding-retail-tie-Frasers-buys-luxury-goods-websites-THG.html

There is nothing to suggest this hostile from MA, he is building up a friendly stake like he did with Next and AO world

Typical Qube tactics and their market manipulation. Rules need to change but instead they are giving a lighter touch to these short sellers. The U.K. is replacing the current requirement to publicly disclose all short positions over 0.5% with a new disclosure structure, whereby the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”) will receive reports privately and publish aggregated short positions in each company's shares.

Even Donald Trump personally and the SEC want to launch a probe into Qube's market manipulation via their short manipulation tactics.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-media-djt-demands-an-sec-probe-into-qube-s-105m-short-bet-1034597235

Topline results from the Phase 3 ARISE trial showed Cobenfy added no significant benefit over placebo as an adjunctive treatment to typical antipsychotics for schizophrenia treatment.

This is going to make it a lot harder for Insurance to take on and add Cobenfy to already existing treatments. More trials very likely needed now. Its bad news for Puretech since they need the Cobenfy royalties to keep their runway long enough for end of phase 3 on internal assets.

I dont think I've put a negative spin on the bid today. It proves THG is undervalued. I am just waiting for results to put all this uncertainty to bed. I also think VOD is a share to avoid btw, their leverage and forced dividend payments doesn't look healthy.

I wonder how a stronger Yen has effected their businesses and conversions in JP.

*0.5% coupon rate for the Alibaba bonds. not 5%, mis-typed.

I agree there is a time and place for dividends but VOD needs to pay a dividend, its a dividend share and so needs to keep paying to keep its appeal and issuance in dividend funds.

Also VOD has a lower debt leverage than THG and VOD only is paying close to 3-4% on average in interest on debt, THG's cost of debt is a lot higher, would be a lot more beneficial to pay that down. If you hold or can get hold of cheap debt then using buybacks for that debt can result in higher shareholder yields than otherwise.

Take the case of Alibaba, they literally issued $5 billion in bonds paying 5% interest to use purely for share buybacks and the market took it positively.

Also Stanley, Buybacks are better for long term share price than dividends. Buybacks enhance EPS metrics and allow for more dividend yield in the future. As long term shareholders we will be better off if they pay down debt now and launch buybacks before initiating a dividend. There's a reason top companies launch massive buyback campaigns before starting dividend payments, like Alibaba and Rolls Royce recently.

Lower total sales with more revenue growth isn't a bad thing for share price. I do agree APN is overvalued compared to THG though Stanley and margins will get squeezed eventually.

Also APN have a ROE close to 42% while THG's was -40% before demerger. Results should show this is changing and result in some more market confidence.

Where do you get 300p from Stanley?

Being a smaller player with more revenue growth and better brand image commands a higher valuation, this has always been the case and will always be the case. APN is financially sound, doesn't have any debt so no demanding interest payments every month and high leverage. APN's profit margin is 21% and their EBITDA margin is 29% which is growing at a good pace each year, we don't know THG's new margins yet hence the market waiting for more clarity on the turnaround and Remainco before a rerating closer to APN's value.

A lot of this uncertainty should dissipate if Results are good coming up and show no surprises. It can re-rate closer to APN valuation which would bring it to 40-45p, pay down debt to get leverage down. Its a start, lets hope for some good results next week

Buybacks are better when shares are this cheap and for long term metric growth. Buybacks also help MM gain share of the company without diluting shareholders and Buybacks will allow for better dividends per share in the future, we all will get more of a share of the total dividend.

Buybacks will be much more effective at this price when THG is trading for less than 0.5 Price/Sales

Notice how the Selkirk bid was just for MyProtein, not the whole of Nutrition.

No BoD is going to accept selling their core product for a bunch of toilet roll shares

Positives are that margins should be increasing, they will be starting buybacks when generating FCF, its priced extremely low on 0.4 Price to Sales and Big Mike is slowly gaining a stake.

Forgot to add the Timestamp: https://www.youtube.com/live/WnESmGFwabk?t=2250s