Member Info for ThetaDecay

As expected, FTSE 250 dump is occuring. Funds bought up, traders will exit now they see no magical pump. I still see THG as undervalued but never expected some pump here.

Is there any historical basis for this magical FTSE 250 pump on inclusion? its going to be one of the smallesst % of FTSE 250 too.

" (In 2023) Discretionary index deletions (which excludes CRH as it left voluntarily) outperformed the index by 15 per cent on average six months after leaving. The same figure for those that concurrently joined was just 7 per cent. Historical event studies of index inclusions (both in the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250) have documented this “price reversal” effect. The initial price surge driven by temporary demand is often followed by a reversion toward fundamental valuation levels over the subsequent days or weeks."

Mike's been busy recently. Frasers making an offer for XXL Sportswear retailer and upped his stake in Marks Electrical to over 10%.

https://www.ii.co.uk/news/frasers-group-stake-in-xxl-increases-triggering-mandatory-offer-rule-al1742298001503955400

https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/AN_1742225423070105100/in-brief-frasers-ups-stake-in-marks-electrical-to-over-10.aspx

All of that can be true and THG still can be undervalued with its current Market Cap.

Price/Book of 0.45, a price to sales of 0.23 does not make sense for an FCF positive company, if it goes to the 20's its pretty much priced for bankruptcy. THG has issues and ultimately the re-rating will only happen when we see Whey prices start to decrease and revenue bleed stop but even with this information, on a pure metric basis, its heavily undervalued for the revenue even with insepid growth.

It would be okay if these firms didn't play manipulation tactics on the price to improve their odds of shorting.

Naked shorts are a plague on LSE and recently the mass shorting we see on UK indexes and shares take down the whole market, matched with low-volume and funds reducing liquidity by constantly selling UK shares, it doesn't put the market into a good place. Its why we see consistently over time that more legislation and restrictions are put into place over shorting

Wheres Pearls? Heavy sell volume from the US. More than the buy volume in the other day. I thought US were buying?

Have faith in MA. UK retail is not dying, its going through a stagnation period like other western countries. I keep hearing stories of High street footfall falling but they never look at the increase of Retail Parks.

MA obviously sees UK retail shares as undervalued. Asos and Bohoo can have cross synergies with Frasers companies.

Like you said, since 2020 he has been buying down on their luck retail/consumer plc's, Haleon and Tesco don't fit that bill at all.

If you look at his 2023 purchases, they ended up quite well. 20% of AO world and a large stake in Curry's in summer 2023 worked out well. 15% of NEXT in 2022-23 turned out to be a fantastic purchase on his end.

Why would Frasers buy up stakes in Amazon or Alibaba? hahaha. UK Retail age that has passed.... what on earth are you saying?

Shorts are decreasing at a good rate, the volume two days ago during the rise was 1.2 million traded in the first hour of open. Today only 290k traded so far. Very low volume dump, its just short term noise.

Market only been open for 40 minutes and already got 20% of daily volume. Wow

Look at that volume. Wow

I don't think the downward price action is company specific. Look at all the non-commercial biotechs in US, plenty of great biotechs now reaching all time lows, Biotech space isn't in a good place currently but agree this is undervalued.

It was obvious something was up this morning when Etoro wouldn't find a seller to match my buy, first time i've ever experienced that with THG.

There are a lot of bullish catalysts coming up for this. I wouldn't expect a massive pump day after day but 8.1% up when markets are heavily down speaks volumes.

MA buying up is a great thing, especially if he's done with his CFD tactics. FTSE 250 funds buying up over the next month. Shorters exiting, volume increasing. Whey prices predicted to come down, increasing margins. Upcoming results will be first proper time to showcase positive FCF and a stop to revenue declines.

I called it last week after FTSE 250 inclusion, Steve was getting desperate trying to force some form of capitulation in share price before the obvious back-out, lo and behold here we are.

I will be extremely surprised if we are anywhere near these lows at the end of the year, let alone in a few months.

Volume increasing with price, good to see.

Steve deleted his LSE account end of last week

An important question is wether Mike Ashley is doing what he did with Boohoo and shake up/replace the board with his guys and try to become CEO/leading figure in company or is he going to go what he did with NEXT in 22/23 and just buy shares on the cheap and do nothing.

I cannot buy THG on Etoro this morning, its stuck with a pending order because they cannot match with a sell.

A few months ago Etoro was ticking down to 35 when it was in the 40's due to lack of liquidity. First time It hasn't matched sellers with my buy, interesting that its had this reversal recently.

Sellers look like they are finally easing off.

In hindsight, it seems likely that MA was trying to keep it out FTSE 250 and create a capitulation event in retail holders to hoover up more shares on the cheap.

Shorters are having an amazing time on the LSE these days due to lack of liquidity and institutional and foreign divestment in UK equities, its a real problem and is damaging the reputation of UK plc and LSE as a whole.

Etoro not letting me buy HE1 this whole week, claiming lack of liquidity. I might need to switch platforms just for HE1