Member Info for ThetaDecay

Funny enough I also sold my Rolls Royce at £5.5 to buy this (after riding it up), thinking I was being clever. This share just seems to have an endless line of sellers

Agreed but its how a lot of NDC members think. Some would be happy to play the waiting game and let Atlantic go under for a large entity to come in like in Rwanda with Rio, they have big aspirations and see ALL not being able to accomplish this with their funding requirements, they also don't care about the previous MIIF investment because they see it as worthless in the long term due to the need of funding and dilution, even if this assumption is incorrect (I am an investor so don't believe this to be fully true).

I expect ratification within a few months, if not then they are waiting until Atlantic Lithium goes under or gets bought out. The reason it hasn't been ratified yet is simple, its called Greed. The NDC want a better deal. In their eyes the Lithium belongs to Ghana but they understand that it will need funding and expertise to profit from it.

Here's my issue, besides them wanting to squeeze from ALL as much as possible, a lot in the NDC don't see a £60 million micro-cap miner as an actual long term source of funding, they would much rather see it bought out or liquidated and given to a Chinese or larger player, they also don't see expertise as an issue since this can easily be picked up from China or South Africa. See this article from an NDC adjacent as an example:

https://www.myjoyonline.com/bright-simons-ghana-risks-miscalculating-on-its-lithium-strategy-2/

There are over 5 other valid companies that can also make the index now. I actually think the shareprice has been dug down too low to make it in March. Sad

Waiting on this. THG now doesn't qualify for automatic FTSE 250 entry, would need to be above 40p currently but it would sit at the 230th entry so still high chance we make it for March reshuffle

Yeah seems that way, not a big deal in my opinion.

I'm still looking into the job cuts, I can see announcements last month about London job redundencies and moving over roles to Manchester HQ but can't find official announcement of 100+ Manchester cuts today, not necessarily a bad thing but looks like an unnanounced third wave of redundencies could be one of the reasons for the recent languishing price.

I've heard chatterings of more job cuts today, this time in Manchester and 100+ jobs without option of internal transfer. Is this announced or is this a new development?

I've also noticed that they took down their "our business model" page in the last few days: https://www.thg.com/group-structure/our-business-model if you go the archive you can see it was up previously.

I still think its very undervalued currently but slowly losing my patience here.

After yesterdays results, I think the sp would have drifted up to the high 90's low 100's anyway. Record operating cash flow even with a drop in total revenue. Comparison segment revenue up 43% with earnings doubling, seeing strong growth in new markets with more to come. Domain/Identity segment boosted profitability by 46% showing with low growth, they are improving costs. Only the Search segment and Shinez were the downsides. Search segment falling 15% but makes sense considering they are reshuffling that segment to focus on higher-end customer experience.

Overall, any offer from Verdane for less than 150p is a steal. For me to take it seriously I want at least 140p.

Its a positive step that they have admitted to renogiating terms with the NDC. The fact they have announced this doesn't say anything about the NDC's terms or how the negotiations are playing out but I think Atlantic Lithium seems to know what they are dealing with and how to act which is another positive.

It's not going to happen fast but lets hope they flesh out a deal that works for NDC and Atlantic. Good terms is the most important thing right now.

Was already undervalued and priced for the worst outcome, now with this news today I really like at these prices. Shakespeare back at the helm, stabilisation and ad/data market slowly on the comeback.

I'm just surprised we are being given the chance to accumulate at these prices. I'm near certain we will see either a switch to the FTSE main index and FTSE 350 (maybe even 250) inclusion or a partial buyout/switch to Nasdaq listing in US, either outcome is positive.

gla

US has a trade surplus in the billions with the UK. Trumps main issue is with countries with trade deficits that also have tarrifs and protectionist measures against the US, i.e EU and Canada. It's unlikely we will be the focus of any tarriffs unless Starmer makes a mistake and aligns us with the EU without the option of independent trade negotiations.

Of course Trump will want us to open more of our markets to the US and will probably want re-negotiation of the NHS Drug prices (although that is more private pharma companies lobbying for the President to force a better deal) but that can work in our favour economically.

If Starmer plays his cards right, this can end up a boon to UK exporters. But knowing Starmer he will turn this into a negative to align with the failing EU.

Blue Orca report was claiming things like it will never get a permit due to the 2.5% direct royalty rate to Johnson Asiedu Nketiah son but the permit came and now NDC and Nketiah are in power. I wouldn't think much on it because that type of corruption is common and the Government are unlikely to care about their own parties corruption if they all stand to benefit. Stock is dead until the greedy people get what they want

NDC have made it crystal clear that they are revising mining codes and want a new deal without explicitly saying it. I would look at my comment last week regarding the atmosphere in Ghana.

Anyone expecting cool heads in Ghanian parliament and swift ratification are investing in something they don't fully grasp. The mood in Ghana and sub-sahara Africa is not positive for foreign mining companies. ALL have no leverage in negotiations here, the best hope for shareholders is agreeing to whatever absurd revised mining code they make and swiftly agreeing to their demands. Negotiating with a party like NDC after what we have seen in Mali, Burkina, Botswana will not end up well for us shareholders.

They 100% want a bigger slice. The NDC have made that as clear as possible without explicitly spelling it out.

In the last year we are seeing strong broad trends across sub-Saharan Africa asking foreign mining companies for more of the outtakes and profits. There is a strong view across Africa that foreign countries are extracting and profiting off something that belongs to the citizens, it is concerning but growing trend. We have seen in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger and now even South Africa is touting revised mining codes. They want increased royalty rates and Atlantic Lithium is genuinely not in a position to negotiate, it can be taken all away as we have seen time and time again.

The best bet now, as a long term holder i seriously hope they just agree to the terms and try to stay as friendly with the Ghanian government as possible. People expecting cool heads and clear minds from Ghanian government don't understand what atmosphere within Ghana and sub-Saharan Africa as a whole. Fingers crossed, Ghana isn't being too unreasonable and we can agree to a revised deal.

The Lord Doth Spoken

How much lower could it realistically go? I'm 15% down on my average purchases but have a strong feeling this is a major buyout candidate at these prices. I'm going to have patience here, and not listen to people that have sold on a loss a while ago and gleefully cheering on the falling SP *cough*.

I think this re-rates to 70/80 at least once the dust settles, FTSE 250 inclusion *fingers crossed* and more serious takeover talk.

No one is taking 125p seriously. Yeah this will head back down and I'll start accumulating at those prices again.

So much panic in UK markets even though UK Plc is already undervalued relative to Europe which has worse economic prospects in the next 5 years.

The only issue is US equities are certainly in a bubble and should that start popping, then I don't see global/UK equities doing too well either.

I think anyone buying YouGov at this price will be happy in a few years, great company, great sector. We just need patience, move out of AIM, possibly to Nasdaq or main market. Start bringing up AI more in calls, analysts love AI with Data but Data without AI is toxic now.

125 cannot be the final bid. It must be rejected if that is the case. Anyone who held the last 5 years would gain nada. I've rarely seen these initial low ball bids by PE firms being the only bid especially with two approachees.

I would not take any bid seriously unless its 140 minimum, TIG is not worth 125p, its worth more and we shouldn't give up this company for that price, its a steal from shareholders.

Nice recommendations, I like EKF and Pulsar. I think there are quite a few buyout opportunities in the market but as a longer term holder I'm still going to hope for a better buyout than 125 although I'm reducing my holding now and buying YouGov, Very similar to TIG with a bad merger, massive drop and accumulation by big players.